3 reasons for BYU fans to have hope vs West Virginia

Can someone please tell me if John Denver was singing about West Virginia or about the western part of Virginia when he sang “Country Roads”?  It is such a great song and seems very pertinent to know considering BYU is playing in West Virginia this week. And, to add to the intrigue of my mystery, I’ve witnessed with my own two eyes the very words Country Roads on the back of the West Virginia Mountaineers football helmets. So, while BYU vs West Virginia brings plenty of intrigue on the field, I will also be exploring this off-field mystery…

Now, returning to the game at hand! Let’s hope that BYU doesn’t have as difficult a time of traveling to the game as their equipment truck did. 

As I prepared myself for this game this week, I noted from watching previous games of West Virginia the following:

• They like to run the ball
• Their quarterback likes to run the ball
• Their running back likes to run the ball
• Their linemen enjoy blocking when running the ball
• They are good at running the ball
• Did I mention that they enjoy running the ball and are pretty decent at it?

In particular, their quarterback Garrett Greene has thrown for 1,340 yards and is their second leading rusher with 404 yards. They line up in bunch formations with a tight end / fullback on each side or a receiver who is really tight near the line, and then they run several motions where the tight end sweeps across the backfield, the QB and RB have an RPO action, and Greene is most lethal when he keeps it on those RPOs. He also runs designed QB draws. BYU struggled to contain Emory Jones when Cincinnati ran seemingly one play all game which was designed QB draw. 

So, BYU is going to need to be assignment sound against the run. That always goes without saying, but when you defend these type of run schemes, then you really need to be disciplined to know and stay on your assignment. Having played run defense myself, the point of the fake handoffs are to get you to bail on your original assignment and follow. It is actually tougher to execute than what we think when we sit on our recliners and watch the game eating all sorts of BBQ and donuts.

This game will be tough, and I have penciled this in as a loss since the schedule came out because Morgantown is no cakewalk, and BYU has struggled on the road this year in Big 12 play. However, recently, and as I prepared for this game, there are three reasons that give me optimism for BYU vs West Virginia, and they might give BYU fans that optimism too.

You can also take a look at this article in which I mentioned some additional reasons for BYU to be encouraged after the Texas loss (and why I think Texas has a great chance to go to the CFP)

West Virginia has an average rush defense against an improving BYU rush offense

“Well that’s not going to matter since we can’t run the ball” you might be thinking. In the words of the great Lee Corso, “not so fast my friend!”. BYU’s run game has produced three of their four best season outings in the past three weeks. For the season, they are averaging 81 yards rushing per game, and they’ve run for 91, 150, and 95 in the past three games. BYU is bringing an improving rush game to the misty mountains of Morgantown, led by a now healthy Aidan Robbins.

When you square in on Big 12 play, BYU’s rushing game has improved by 10x – 15x! Going from 9 yards against Kansas to 150 against Texas Tech and 95 against Texas (best defense in the conference against the run). This gives me hope that BYU is heading in the right direction despite their difficulties.

See this chart below:

West Virginia has allowed over 100 yards rushing in every game this season except for their week 2 matchup against Duquesne (how do you pronounce that school? – “Dew-Shain”?). And here is a conundrum for you:

Texas allowed only 14 yards rushing to Houston the very week before BYU ran for 95 yards on Texas. West Virginia allowed 140 yards rushing to Houston in week 7. So, does that mean BYU will run for over 100 yards vs West Virginia? Yes, in my opinion. When BYU runs to the outside, I’d like to see them use Miles Davis this game. Then, give Aidan Robbins the bulk of the carries and don’t get too fancy. Give Robbins a hole to target and then let him jump on that hole and make one cut. He can do that.

Here is the game by game breakout of West Virginia’s run game.

Furthermore, when we look at conference rankings, West Virginia is middle of the pack in rushing yards allowed per game and further back in rushing yards allowed per attempt. See these two charts below:

For an additional conundrum, consider that West Virginia and TCU and Texas Tech are all within 11 yards of each other in terms of total rushing yards allowed this year. BYU ran for 91 against TCU, 150 against Texas Tech, so what will they run for against West Virginia? My guess is near 125 yards.

BYU should be able to pass vs West Virginia’s pass defense

Now, I recognize that Kedon Slovis is out (well, that’s what X says), and BYU will have a challenge vs West Virginia in getting the QB2 up to speed and in sync with the receivers. Perhaps Isaac Rex will be re-featured. Who knows. Kody Epps could have his first big game of the season. But, I do see an opportunity because West Virginia’s pass defense is not elite. Now, to be fair, Texas’s pass defense wasn’t so much better in terms of yards allowed per pass, but nonetheless, there is still opportunity.

West Virginia is allowing 6.9 yards per pass and 230 yards allowed per game. West Virginia also controls the ball well, so that statistic is deflated slightly. But, this means that BYU is not going to go up against a vaunted defense. The speed that BYU saw against TCU and Texas and even Arkansas stymied much of the shots deep. An Aaron Roderick offense is really hampered when the team can’t effectively and frequently take deep shots. 

Plus, to take deep shots, you need good running to keep the defense honest. And, as I mentioned previously, BYU is seeing improvement in that arena. Expect to see some quick hits this week to get Jake Retzlaff comfortable early on. I really do like Isaac Rex to have a good game here along the lines of 5 catches for 80+ yards and a touchdown. Go back and take a look at the Oklahoma State vs West Virginia game and watch the WVU defense. They sat in zone frequently, which allowed receivers and tight ends to sit in the zone.

BYU runs plenty of routes for Rex where he can sit and be a big target for a Retzlaff who will certainly be feeling the blood pressure rise in his first game at the FBS level. I like that opportunity for BYU vs West Virginia.

BYU is a turnover creating machine

BYU is tied for first in the conference in turnovers created this year (18). Tied with Oklahoma. West Virginia doesn’t necessarily turn the ball over frequently (9 times in 8 games), but there is an opportunity there for BYU to exert that strength and go get it. In fact, if BYU is going to win this game, they are going to need to create 2+ turnovers while also having 0 turnovers themselves. 

Turnovers could be BYU‘s best friend vs West Virginia when it will be a difficult road challenge. The most important thing about the turnover game is that BYU needs to avoid the costly turnover early in the game. These turnovers have killed any BYU momentum and put their opponents in a really good scoring position. Now, West Virginia’s defense did not blitz much against Oklahoma State or UCF, which were their previous two opponents. Schematically, West Virginia may decide to bring pressure against the new quarterback. New quarterbacks are already processing so much, so to add the complexity of blitzes is challenging.

Look at last week’s game against Texas. BYU pressured Malik Murphy twice early on. On the first pressure, Murphy hucked the ball in the air, said a silent prayer, and was bailed out when his tight end came down with the ball a half second before Ethan Slade could intercept it. With the next pass play that he got pressured, he threw it directly to Crew Wakely.

What’s interesting is that BYU has generated twice as many turnovers as West Virginia and yet West Virginia’s havoc rate is the best in the conference while BYU‘s havoc rate is towards the back end of the conference. Havoc rate the percentage of plays in which the defense forces a fumble, intercepts the ball, creates a tackle for loss, or breaks up a pass. A.k.a. Havoc.

BYU intercepts the ball twice as often as they force a fumble and recover it. They do not generate a high amount of tackles for loss (unless they are on offense). BYU generates  interceptions by making the quarterback uncomfortable, typically via blitzing on first or second down. By switching up the timing and the location of when the blitz is coming, they keep the quarterback and the offensive coordinator guessing. BYU has really improved from last season when it comes to turnovers.

Here is a brief breakdown of some of the Havoc statistics from 2022 to 2023:

Remember this time last year. The first weekend in November, BYU was heading to Boise State with a four game losing streak in tow. They endured a winless October and were playing their tenth game in ten weeks. Having allowed more yards than the NCAA allows to be recorded, BYU’s defense was, frankly, bad. There were no words to really describe the struggle. Pain was the word to describe every BYU fans’ feelings about the season.  

That is why I come back to what they’ve done this year. While they added some key players on the line, in the middle, and in the defensive backfield, these are largely the same players. A lot of credit needs to go to these guys.

Remember this was going to be a hard year

While there have been and will continue to be calls from the fan base for changes on the coaching staff or on the roster, I look at where expectations were in January versus where expectations are now. Did anything change dramatically? Why a shift in expectations? 

Yes, Texas Tech was worse than expected, nor was TCU, though clearly good enough to wallop BYU. Texas is even better than last year. Oklahoma State, Iowa State, and West Virginia are all better than last year. Arkansas, perhaps slightly worse than last year. Kansas is as good if not better than last year. So in aggregate, BYU‘s playing an even tougher schedule than we thought, and yet they find themselves at 5-3. They are ahead of schedule.

It can be challenging to see improvement amidst losses. It can be challenging to keep  expectations realistic when the team is seemingly ahead of schedule. It’s really hard to not give into the “What if” game. What if BYU beats West Virginia and then beats Iowa State? What if they actually beat Oklahoma? Could they go into Stillwater at the end of the season and be playing for a spot in the Big 12 title?

It’s as easy to slip into the what if game as it is to slip into the next episode of your favorite Netflix binge show. The reality is that BYU is not going to win out. The goal this year is to be competitive and measure that less in terms of wins and losses and more in terms of are you getting in the games and are you staying in the games longer and longer? Are you competing better and better week in and week out? If you do that and you lose all 12 games then stay with it because the wins are going to come. Whether it’s this year or 2024 or in 2025, the wins are going to start coming.

So have hope, Cougar fans. Remember what is faith is. Believing without seeing. Well, this is a good time to have a lot of faith and believe that BYU is going to pull out a shocker in one of these games in November. I don’t know which game it is, but I’ll go on record here to say that BYU‘s not gonna lose out and they’re gonna win one of these last four games to get them to a bowl game. Feel encouraged for BYU vs West Virginia.

Data come from @cfbFastR and their connection to ESPN box scores.