4 Lessons for the Big 12 from the 2024 CFP

With the conclusion of the 2024 college football playoff (CFP) and national championship (congratulations to Michigan), there are 4 lessons for the Big 12 to learn as their programs head into the 2024 off field portion of the schedule and prepare for the 2024 regular season. I am optimistic about the Big 12’s future on the football field, and these lessons can give hope to the fanbases of these programs.

Before diving into the lessons, here is a brief word on access to the expanded, 12-team playoff. Some fans felt deflated by witnessing Florida State left out of the 4-team playoff. It sent a scare throughout the nation that the playoff is headed for a P2 future consisting of essentially the B1G and the SEC. 

Brett Yormark’s number one priority between now and August 31st, 2024 is to secure an automatic qualifying spot for its conference champion. That is Yormark’s job. Certainly, the coaches or ADs can speak up and voice their opinions, which might be marginally helpful. But the programs and fans can and should leave that up to the commissioner. 

The Big 12 participated in the CFP the past two years with two different teams, so that alone should give the conference hope. And, while Texas’ future is in the SEC, that team got into the playoff on the heels of a Big 12 schedule and 1 big non-conference win against Alabama. Current Big 12 programs could follow that model.

TCU, a program that most people would not consider a blue blood (they’re really more of a purple blood), played for the National Title. The purpose of this article is to provide 4 lessons for the Big 12 from the CFP that will give hope to those programs:

1. Win the trenches
2. The Transfer Portal brings hope
3. You can win being you
4. Positional depth is vital

Lesson #1: Win in the trenches and you will win in the playoff

Get the trenches right and you will have a great chance to win. But, this lesson may seem obvious, right? Well, 3rd Down Analysis is here to help you go one level deeper. 

Here is what you need to know:

• The four CFP teams were amongst the better performing teams in the country at the line of scrimmage. 
• Michigan and Washington were among the top 40 in Net Sacks (net sacks defined later) and among the top 20 of P4 schools.
• Michigan performs well across a number of metrics that indicate positive line of scrimmage play

Let’s walk through a couple of statistical categories that are highly dependent on the offensive and defensive fronts: (1) sacks and (2) rushing yards per carry and (3) defensive pressure rate.

Sacks

The two teams that played for the championship were, perhaps not coincidentally, among the best in the country in allowing sacks. See the table below from the 2023 season:

Alabama was really bad (though they improved over the year), Texas was not good, but Washington and Michigan were awesome. 

Then, when you look at how many sacks they generated throughout the season, you see that several of the schools performed really well:

For anyone who watched the Rose Bowl, the Sugar Bowl, or the National Championship will know that Alabama and Texas struggled in the pass game because of the pressure from the defense. Then Washington, likewise, struggled in the National Championship game.

In the Rose Bowl, Alabama allowed 6 sacks! That is almost half of what Michigan allowed all season! This killed multiple drives for Alabama. You only get ~12 drives per game, and when you’re allowing a third of those drives to die due to sacks, you are going to struggle. (By the way, I wrote about the chance that Michigan had to get after Jalen Milroe).

In the Sugar Bowl, Washington sacked Ewers twice, but the Longhorns never got to Penix. Ewers was constantly under pressure. 

In the National Championship, Penix finally felt pressure. He threw two interceptions in the championship. He had thrown 9 all season prior to that point. The first interception came on the first play of the second half when he was pressured and threw a bad pass to the boundary that was intercepted by Will Johnson.

Michigan wasn’t perfect, but they were constant. And, they thoroughly dominated in the run game. They finished with 430 yards rushing in the playoff, or 215 yards per game. That was 45 yards more per game than their season average! 

Michigan had their best rushing games of the season during the most difficult parts of their schedule! Their 215 avg per game in the playoff would have been 7th best in the country.

What if you combine the Sacks and Sacks Allowed into a composite rating? We’ll call that Net Sacks. The equation is Net Sacks = Sacks – Sacks Allowed. 

Fairly straightforward. Michigan, Washington, and Texas all were net positive:

Rush Yards per Carry

Then you look at rushing. Total rushing yards can be tricky to look at because you need to factor in number of attempts and what the overall opportunity was. So, looking at the rushing yards per carry gives a better sense of how well teams defended the run or were able to run themselves.

Not surprisingly, Michigan scores pretty well in this area. They won’t blow you away with their rushing yards per carry (4.4 yds/carry) as that was good for 58th in the country. But, they were the 9th best in the country in yards per carry allowed (3.0).

When you run a composite and create a net rushing yards per carry (which is the Rushing Yards per Carry minus the Rushing Yards per Carry Allowed), then Michigan scores pretty well.

Was Michigan the most dominant team statistically? Well, when it mattered, they sure were. So, this means that you need an attitude and identity, first and foremost, to own the line of scrimmage. When Michigan beat Penn State, they did so on the ground. It has been well documented by others that Michigan ran the ball 32 straight times to end the game. 32! 

And, yet, Penn State boasted one of the absolute top run defenses in the country. Penn State allowed 2.1 rushing yards per carry. That was the second best in the country! (only behind one of our Founding Fathers, James Madison). So, when push came to shove, Michigan literally pushed and shoved their way to beating the best run defense at what Michigan did best: run!

Defensive Pressure Rate

Michigan was 9th best in defensive pressure rate. This is key. It measures the percentage of passing plays in which the defensive put pressure on the quarterback. 

While the linebackers may be involved in creating pressure, the defensive line is key here. You can see in the metrics, and with the good ole eyeballs, that the teams that are able to generate pressure with the dogs up front and allow their 2nd and 3rd levels cover, then teams struggle to pass. Again, I cite the Rose Bowl. 

Michigan got 6 sacks largely from a 4-man rush. Defensive pressure from the front line really matters in getting to the playoff and winning in the playoff. If I am a coach and I have one roster spot left and I’m considering a 5-star receiver vs a 4-star defensive lineman, in a vacuum I go with the lineman.

The lesson for the Big 12 is that the line of scrimmage has proven to be critical come playoff time, and I don’t see that changing anytime soon.

By the way, for those interested, I am measuring defensive pressure rate as the following equation (don’t worry, the math is not too complicated):

(Sacks + QB Hurries) / Total Passess Defended

So, if a team gets 100 combined sacks and QB hurries in a season, you would normally think that was awesome. But what if they defended 1,000 passes? That would mean that on 10% of their passes defended they pressured or sacked the quarterback. That’s not actually a great rate. 

10% would have landed you at 122nd best in the country in 2023.

Or, what if you only got 100 combined sacks and QB hurries in a season while defending 200 pass attempts? You’re creating pressure on 50% of all pass plays. That is awesome (and not realistic).

Lesson #2: The Transfer Portal can bring hope

One name to give you: Michael Penix Jr. – You know who he is. Most people did now know who he was until this year. Playing in the beautiful Pacific Northwest last year too, in addition to playing four years at Indiana (not exactly known for their football). So, he largely flew under the radar until this year. 

While one player in basketball can dramatically change a team’s fortunes (see Lebron James), football is different. You need more than just one player. Having said that, you get a really good quarterback, and you can get pretty far in college football. And that is what Washington got. 

Now, clearly, Washington also got an excellent coach in Kalen DeBoer (now at Alabama), but without Penix the Huskies would not have made the CFP.

What does this mean for Big 12 schools? These schools are already working the transfer portal. It means that there are players to be had who were not available half a decade ago. Player mobility now means that you get a second chance at a player if you missed out of high school (Tennessee did not get a second chance at Penix…). TCU already did this in 2022. 

This is not to say that you build a program out of the portal. This is to say that you can go get some great players. Like Washington, you can go get a player at an adjacent P4 program. Or, you can go get great players at the higher echelons of P4 programs who are buried in the depth chart.

Take a look at the 2022 transfer portal cycle

2022 

While some of these players transferred to rival SEC schools, generally these players were transferring to schools like Nebraska, UCF, Utah State, Texas, and Arizona State. 

There are good players to be had, and the Big 12 programs can sell a vision of what their programs are creating. Half of the Big 12 schools are new, which presents an opportunity to share these schools are entering an exciting new phase. 

Sometimes, it only takes getting one more piece and you have a team that can get to the CFP. Or, be like Michigan, and lean into your identity and go grab 2-3 linemen in the portal like they did this past two years to get to where they are now. Speaking of leaning into identities…

Lesson #3: You Can Win Being You

Michigan won the National Championship doing what it does best: Run the ball and dominate at the line of scrimmage. They did not rely on the pass. In an era of “we need the best dual threat QB that NIL can buy” Michigan won with a tremendous dual threat quarterback, but they did not rely on him to carry them across the goal line.

J.J. McCarthy threw the ball 18 times in the National Championship game for 140 yards. In fact, those 140 yards were the second lowest total all season. Yet, he didn’t throw that few of yards because he struggled. No, he threw 140 yards and only 18 times because the offense ran the ball for 303 yards! He didn’t need to throw 40 times for 400 yards.

And, so, in an era when we often think that you can’t win it all by running the ball, we learn that you win it all when you do what you do best, and you do that really, really well.

This is where player development comes into play. As it stands, the Big 12 is not attracting the top end talent in abundance. Could they get there? Well, there is always the possibility, but I wouldn’t count on it for the next 5-10 years.

So, these programs must develop their players. If the rosters are not littered with 4-stars and 5-star players, then you need to focus on developing your players. Be innovative in your nutrition, strength, and conditioning programs. These schools have access to academics within the schools of sports medicine, science, business, etc…who can leverage some creative ways to get marginal gains.

So each program can really identify what they do well and then lean into that with all their marbles. I wrote about how Michigan forgot their identity in the Fiesta Bowl against TCU. Well, that was not the case this year. They remembered who they were and they won with it.

Take Iowa State for example. Hard nosed defense that typically makes the game really ugly for opponents. A solid run game. A young quarterback that is developing. 

Iowa State has a blueprint to make other teams uncomfortable with their defense, control the ball on offense, and as their quarterback Rocco Becht develops they have the chance to develop more than one way to beat teams. Is there any reason why that blueprint could not scale to winning in the playoffs?

Lesson #4: Position Depth is Vital

We saw Michigan’s Zak Zinter get hurt against Ohio State. He was unable to play in the CFP. But this did not impact Michigan due to their positional depth. I recognize that last year Michigan lost in the CFP, but they were able to plug in Donovan Edwards in place of Blake Corum at the RB seamlessly on their way to the playoff.

Going forward, teams could be playing upwards of 17 games! 17! That’s 5 more, almost 50% more than most teams play in a season.

So, are you going to need depth? More than ever. If you want to compete in the playoffs, then your 3rd string and 4th string are going to need to prepare like they are in the two deep and expect to play each game. Chances are, they will be playing meaningful reps down the stretch. 

Teams may have to figure out ways to get these players some game reps earlier in the season when it isn’t even necessary due to injury. Again, this is where player development becomes crucial. For programs who feel vulnerable to their players leaving via the transfer portal, development becomes a competitive advantage.

If you can point to your developing past players and even putting them in the NFL, then your logo may not matter as much. If a player knows that you’re invested in him, then he will think twice about leaving when the back channel NIL deals start coming his way. 

The Big 12 is good enough to deliver a very competitive team into the playoff next year. These four lessons can be applied to each program to help them continue to develop.