This is Part 2 of a 16-part series where I’m putting together my “Never Too Early Predictions” for the 2024 college football season. Here are the Arizona State Sun Devils season predictions for 2024.
You can read the other parts in the series by clicking on the team below:
Arizona Wildcats | Arizona State Sun Devils | Baylor Bears | BYU Cougars | Cincinnati Bearcats | Colorado Buffaloes | Houston Cougars | Iowa State Cyclones | Kansas Jayhawks | Kansas State | Oklahoma State | TCU
If you haven’t read part 1 of this series about the Arizona Wildcats, then I encourage you to go back and read there as I give my disclaimer that this is a prediction in the face of very little knowledge. And by knowledge, I refer to transfer portal results, coaching or staff changes, player injuries, etc…After all, the 2024 season is still many months away from kicking off, so this is as much a shot in the dark as anything. But, it’s a good shot, I’ll tell you what.
Now, on to weightier matters of season predictions for the Sun Devils in 2024. But first, let us contemplate one question: “What is a Sun Devil?” I know what the Sun is, and I know who the Devil is, but I don’t know when the two combine…Perhaps an ASU fan can give me some intel on that!
The Big 12 is going to get more familiar with a program that, in my opinion, is a sleeping giant. Given ASU’s close access to California recruiting, a very large alumni base, a large-ish stadium filled with crazed students, ASU could become a great program in the Big 12. However, not all giants who sleep are awoken, so there is no guarantee.
Side note, I was saddened to see that Sun Devil Stadium was renamed to Mountain America Stadium…sigh. Sun Devil Stadium was such a better name and evoked more intrigue and good ole fashioned college football hostility. Alas, I’ll save my thoughts on stadiums for another day.
Ok, on to Sun Devils season predictions for 2024!
Predictions
More details are below, but for the headliner predictions, I have Arizona State going 4-8 in 2024 the following:
- Non-Conference schedule: 3-0
- Conference schedule: 1-8
- Overall record: 4-8
The State of the Arizona State Sun Devils’ Program coming into the 2024 Season
Arizona State comes in having won 16 games in the past 4 seasons. They’ve had seasons of 2, 8, 3, and 3 wins with this past season being the first season for Kenny Dillingham. The Sun Devils have had 4 seasons with double digit wins since 1996 (1996, 2007, 2013, and 2014), so recent history has not been filled with immense success.
Some of the sentiment I’ve gleaned from my perusing of ASU fan boards suggests that Kenny Dillingham is getting pulled in a direction of NIL, which is important, and distracted away from the more particular football matters, such as recruiting. There are concerns about investment, and most fan bases will be worried about who they might lose to free agency, aka, the transfer portal. This is a challenge that most head coaches at all college football programs are starting to grapple with.
All is not lost Sun Devil fans – but, investment does need to be there. Infrastructure does need to be there. I am not equipped to speak to ASU’s level of investment, but there are pieces there that could help the program succeed over the next 5 years. Sometimes, all it takes is one good year. Sometimes, all it takes is to be right on the QB, and then you’re good.
We’ll see what happens with the QB carousel next year (they played was it 5 or 6 quarterbacks last year?) and if Jayden Rashada is the next Jayden Daniels (the Daniels who left ASU and won the Heisman at LSU).
ASU has one of the tougher slates in the Big 12 in that they play all of the teams that are going to be projected to be in the top 5 of the league (Arizona, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, and Utah).
Arizona State 2024 Season Predictions
So, here we go with the Arizona State Sun Devils 2024 season predictions. Now we know the dates of when the matchups actually fall, (thank you Big 12 schedule release). Arizona State plays the less favorable 5 road games and 4 home games schedule in 2024.
Saturday, Aug. 31st – Arizona State vs Wyoming
Winner: Arizona State
Wyoming’s Craig Bohl retired, so the Cowboys are going to be adjusting to a new coach, which is never easy on game one of the season. The biggest challenge that the G5 coaches are having is to keep their best players from making the jump to the P4 levels. Wyoming is no exception.
Wyoming did have their best season in a long time as they won 9 games and won, ironically, the Arizona bowl. But the new coaching change is going to through a hurdle in their plans. I think this game will be a challenge for Arizona State, but I like the Sun Devils to win this game by about a touchdown.
Saturday, Sept. 7th – Arizona State vs Mississippi State Bulldogs
Winner: Arizona State
Mississippi State is also going to be adjusting to a new head coach, and ASU played MSU pretty tight on the road last year. Will Rogers transferred out (as of right now), and former Baylor quarterback Blake Shapen transferred in. ASU being at home this year should help. This is a game where Kenny Dillingham can show if his program is growing as much as he’d hope they’ll grow.
Given the time of the year and the location, I expect this to be a hot game. Mississippi isn’t exactly Minnesota when it comes to weather, but the heat in Arizona in early September can be atrocious.
Saturday, Sept. 14th – Arizona State at Texas State
Winner: Arizona State
Even though Texas State beat Baylor on the road last year, I like ASU having played 2 games at this point and starting to get some momentum. Plus, Texas State is seeing material movement in the transfer portal, which can be good and bad. At this early stage of the season, I think it is generally more bad because coaches are still figuring out how to use their new players.
Beyond that, Texas State is figuring out who their quarterback will be as starting quarterback TJ Finley transferred out and former Arizona Wildcat Jayden De Laura transferred in and then is back out on the market. While ASU has quarterback questions, they at least have several quarterbacks who were in the system last year.
Saturday, Sept. 21st – Arizona State at Texas Tech
Winner: Texas Tech
While Texas Tech remains squirrely to figure out, the fact that this game is on the road for ASU doesn’t bode well for the Sun Devils. Additionally, while both teams will be facing fresh faces, the home team generally gets the nod for me in this scenario. Texas Tech has been pulling together some good recruiting classes, so talent is starting to pull through, though it must materialize in wins.
I’ve noted in my season predictions for other teams that Texas Tech has performed better at home the past two years than they have on the road. Translation = Texas Tech by a few touchdowns.
Saturday, Sept. 28th – BYE Week
Arizona State and West Virginia both have byes this week. There are three teams in the conference that have byes the preceding weeks. So, in total, there are 5 teams out of the 16 teams who are getting byes this early. We’ll see how that plays out in the long run, but for now I lean towards a slight disadvantage.
However, ASU plays its next two games at home, so ASU will not go on the road for about a month, which could end up serving the team very well to get some surprise victories.
Saturday, Oct. 5th – Arizona State vs Kansas
Winner: Kansas
If Kansas stays healthy at the QB, then honestly, I like that team to play for the Big 12 title game. Kansas under Lance Leipold has shown immense progress each year, and I expect that to continue. And, they’re even showing progress on the defensive side of the ball.
Where ASU could have the opportunity to surprise Kansas is in that they will be coming off of a bye while the Jayhawks will not. Throw in that this is a road game, and this could be a challenging game for the Jayhawks considering that this game will be the halfway mark from them in terms of games played. Kansas has too many good pieces on offense, however, and should overwhelm the Sun Devils.
Fri/Sat, Oct. 11th/12th – Arizona State vs Utah
Winner: Utah
I also like Utah’s chances of going to the Big 12 championship given Cam Rising’s return (assuming health). Utah knows ASU from having played them over the past 12 years in the Pac-12, so neither team has an advantage (or disadvantage) of not knowing the foe.
Arizona State is 6-6 against the Utes since Utah joined the deceased PAC-12, but 4 of their victories came in Utah’s first four years in that league. The Sun Devils haven’t defeated the Utes since 2018. And, I don’t think 2024 will be the year that they get another W.
Saturday, Oct. 19th – Arizona State at Cincinnati
Winner: Cincinnati
This is going to be a decently long trek for the Sun Devils against a new opponent. While Cincinnati is still adjusting to the P4, ASU is still adjusting through their rebuild and has been mediocre over the past several years, so I like Cincinnati at home. If this were a home game for the Sun Devils, then I’d give them about a 50/50 chance to win.
Something to watch will be how Cincinnati runs the ball on ASU. The Sun Devils were not horrible in run defense, but Cincy was really good at rushing. If Cincinnati struggles to run the ball, then you can count this game as one that is a toss-up.
Saturday, Oct. 26th – BYE Week
The second bye comes at a good time for ASU. It splits up their two road games between Cincinnati and Oklahoma State, and they have 5 games left, so enough to get a rhythm but not so many that they are going to be limping at the end.
Saturday, Nov. 2nd – Arizona State at Oklahoma State
Winner: Oklahoma State
These programs have faced each other often recently, including in 2022 and 2023. Oklahoma State came out victorious both times. In last year’s matchup, Ollie Gordon only had 9 carries for 53 yards. Expect the carries number to double, and I’d expect the rushing yardage to increase by at least double but maybe triple.
Mike Gundy has a better sense of what he has in Ollie Gordon and Alan Bowman this year, which won’t bode well for ASU.
Saturday, Nov. 9th – Arizona State vs UCF
Winner: Arizona State
UCF is going to be traveling across the country for this one – it’s a long way even if it is still warm. UCF struggled on the road this past year and are still adjusting to the P4 level. Here is where I have Arizona State picking up their first Big 12 win. I like them to get a victory here.
In all reality, there is a high probability that ASU will have already picked up their 1st Big 12 win prior to this game. ASU had the worst turnover margin of all the Big 12 teams last year. This has the feel of one of those games where they win that battle and get the victory, particularly since UCF was also in the negative of turnover margin.
Saturday, Nov. 16th – Arizona State at Kansas State
Winner: Kansas State
Kansas State should still be in contention for the BIg 12 championship next year. Given that this game is on the road against a better conference foe…it could get ugly. This is one of Arizona State’s most difficult stretches.
They have the two game stretch against Kansas and Utah, and then they play this last stretch with 4 of the 5 last teams being against teams that went to a bowl game last year. 3 of the teams should be competing for the conference title (Oklahoma State, Kansas State, and Arizona). This could be ugly, but if you see ASU fighting and keeping this competitive, then watch out Arizona!
Saturday, Nov. 23rd – Arizona State vs BYU
Winner: BYU
I have BYU winning this game, but it won’t be easy for the Cougars. BYU was one of the better performing teams of the 2023 newcomers, and while this is still going to be a challenge, I think BYU improves enough to win this game on the road.
Also, given that this road travel for BYU is close, same time zone, and in a state that BYU has traveled to before, the scenario bodes well for BYU. Referring back to turnover margin, BYU lived and died by the turnovers in 2023. When they won, they usually dominated in that category. When they lost, they usually had backbreaking turnovers that ended up in pick-6 type of plays.
This could be a game, if ASU hasn’t corrected the turnovers by this point, where BYU gets 3-4 turnovers and wins by a couple touchdowns.
Saturday, Nov. 30th – Arizona State at Arizona
Winner: Arizona
I’m glad that the Territorial Cup is played at the end of the season and is expected to be a protected rivalry going forward. I’m looking forward to learning more about this rivalry and seeing what people in Arizona (Arizonians or Arizonans?) are very familiar with. In rivalry games, location matters, but is not the same factor as it is in non-rivalry games.
At the end of the day, I like Arizona because they have a sure thing in quarterback Noah Fifita and Arizona is two to three years ahead of ASU in their rebuild. Arizona is also not coming off a difficult stretch of their schedule to end the season.
So there you go with my predictions for Arizona State. I’m genuinely curious to see how this team performs in their first Big 12 season next year.
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