This is Part 1 of a 16-part series where I’m putting together my “Never Too Early Predictions” for the 2024 college football season. Here are my Arizona Wildcats season predictions for 2024.
You can read the other parts in the series by clicking on the team below:
Arizona Wildcats | Arizona State Sun Devils | Baylor Bears | BYU Cougars | Cincinnati Bearcats | Colorado Buffaloes | Houston Cougars | Iowa State Cyclones | Kansas Jayhawks | Kansas State | Oklahoma State | TCU
Is it ever too early to make season predictions? That depends on how accurate you think you can be with more information. I could make an argument that season predictions now could be just as accurate, if not more accurate, than those made in late August after the transfer portal, high school recruiting, and any last coaching changes have been made.
But, I’m not going to make that argument. No, I actually would prefer to make some predictions after seeing what happens with the Transfer Portal, national signing day, all the coaching changes, the actual schedule and how they layout. Even though that information is quite a bit to pour through and can even overwhelm one, I would prefer to make predictions with rather than without.
However, I can’t wait until August to start making predictions. Hence, my “Never Too Early” predictions.
To be sure, these are going to be wrong, to a degree. The key is to not be way too off. Jedd Fisch has left for the purple rain of Seattle and the Washington Huskies. Brent Brennan now steps into the head coach position. Some of Arizona’s key players, including quarterback Noah Fifita, have indicated that they are remaining in Tucson.
Predictions
More details are below, but for the headliner predictions for the Arizona Wildcats in the 2024 season, I have the following:
- Non-Conference schedule: 2-1
- Conference schedule: 6-3
- Overall record: 8-4
The State of the Arizona Wildcats’ Program coming into the 2024 Season
Arizona has the chance to win 10 games this year, which would be the first double digit win since 2014. Do you know how many games Arizona won between 2019 and 2022?
Hint: the answer is 10 games.
In fact, they have had 3 double digit win seasons in the past 30 years (1993, 1998, and 2014). Being ranked this year in the AP Poll was the first time since 2017 and being ranked in the CFP poll was the first time since 2014. So, Jedd Fisch turned that program around. 1 win in his first season, 5 wins his second season, and now 9 wins with the chance for 10. Can Brennan continue the turnaround?
So, understandably, the Wildcats from Tucson (are there actually wildcats that roam the streets of Tucson?) will bring confidence into the Big 12. And, most prognosticators will likely pick Arizona to perform well. After all, their conference slate is manageable. Two of the road games are in Utah (BYU and Utah), and then they get a road game in Florida and Texas (TCU). In conference play, they avoid Oklahoma State and Kansas and Kansas State, but like Baylor and Utah, they face Kansas State in a non-conference matchup that was previously scheduled.
I’m expecting most people to pick them to go 8-1 or 9-0 in conference, but I’m not as high on them in year 1 of the Big 12 as others may be.
If you look deeper at their schedule in 2023, then you see that their 9-3 record is partially a product of a favorable schedule. By the margin of 1-2 victories. In conference play, they lost at home to Washington (“Yeah, but so did everyone else!”) and on the road to USC.
There is an argument that had they played USC a few weeks later, they likely would have beaten USC because USC was still running on half a tank of gas when these two teams played. But, had they faced later in the year, then Arizona would have faced a Trojan team running on fumes.
But, they avoided Oregon, got Oregon State, UCLA, and Utah at home (all of whom they beat), and got the bad PAC-12 teams on the road (Stanford, Arizona State, Colorado). That is the type of schedule where you get quite a bit of 50/50 games and you can either end up with a 3-9 record or a 9-3 record depending on how the ball bounces. And, it bounced well for Arizona in 2023.
I’m optimistic about Arizona, but I think they take a step back next year in terms of wins.
Arizona 2024 Season Predictions
So, here we go with the Arizona Wildcats 2024 season predictions. The Big 12 released the schedule at the end of January. Arizona plays a favorable 5 home games and 4 road games schedule in 2024.
Saturday, Aug. 31st – Arizona vs New Mexico
Winner: Arizona
I like Arizona in this game because it is really hard for a G5 to beat a P5 on the road in the season opener particularly when the P5 has built momentum in their program for a few years. New Mexico hired Bronco Mendenhall to come in as their new head coach. If there is any coach who can succeed in New Mexico, it is Mendenhall, who formerly coached there.
This is not about the Lobos, it is about the Wildcats. Arizona needs to be ready out of the gate because Mendenhall is capable of preparing his team for an upset. If Arizona can win big here, then they can get out to confident start.
Saturday, Sept. 7th – Arizona vs Northern Arizona
Winner: Arizona
As daunting as the Lumberjacks are in name, and I might even pick a lumberjack over a wildcat in a back alley brawl (provided the lumberjack gets to bring his axe), I don’t see an FCS school beating Arizona on the road.
Saturday, Sept. 14th – Arizona at Kansas State
Winner: Kansas State
Despite Kansas State’s setbacks and slight step back in record in 2023 compared to 2022, they are still in the upper echelon of the Big 12. Avery Johnson has potential to become one of the best quarterbacks in the conference.
Until Arizona proves they are consistently in a conference’s upper echelon, I’m not ready to assume they’ll start winning amongst the upper echelon. This game is also unfortunate from a record standpoint as the Wildcats effectively have 10 games even though only 9 will count. But this is going to be a big game to watch.
Saturday, Sept. 21st – BYE Week
Wow, well, after three weeks, Arizona gets a bye. UCF (week 4) and Iowa State (week 3) are the only other schools who get a bye this early in the season. Arizona has 9 games remaining, and they go through 6 games before their next bye. I don’t love this for Arizona, but one benefit is that they get a bye week here prior to their heavyweight matchup against Utah, which is on the road.
That bye gives them three games to evaluate and then take stock, get a little healthier, and then play a Utah team that will be coming off of a difficult matchup at Oklahoma State.
Saturday, Sept. 28th – Arizona at Utah
Winner: Utah
Utah is one of my conference favorites in 2024. This is not a surprise as they are favorites or in the top 4 power rankings for most of the publications I have seen. Playing at Rice-Eccles Stadium is not easy, as Arizona knows, and I expect this to play in the favor of Utah.
Utah will want payback for their big loss in the desert this year. As noted earlier, they will be coming off of a difficult matchup the week prior against the Oklahoma State Cowboys. Both teams were good at the line of scrimmage – Utah was slightly better. Utah also won the turnover margin through the year. If those trends continue, then they should help the home team, particularly turnovers (as they did in this matchup last year).
Saturday, Oct. 5th – Arizona vs Texas Tech
Winner: Arizona
Texas Tech has been hard to figure out the past few years. Their road record has not been as great as their home records. They beat Kansas on the road last year but lost to BYU on the road. You would expect the opposite.
This will be a new environment for the Red Raiders, and their defense needs to improve over last year. Plus, Arizona was 2nd best amongst the 2024 Big 12 teams in rush yards allowed per attempt. Texas Tech featured Tahj Brooks and their run game as a big part of their offense. Arizona was stronger at the line of scrimmage, so if that continues, then this bodes well for Arizona.
Saturday, Oct. 12th – Arizona at BYU
Winner: Arizona
BYU will still be adjusting to the Big 12, and that includes leveling up the roster. In addition to that, this will be the start of a gauntlet for BYU. BYU will be coming off of a bye week, so I would expect this to be a close game, and this could be a surprise upset for BYU.
I’m not as confident for Arizona in this game, despite travel not impacting Arizona as much in this game (~1.5 hour flight due north to Provo). BYU’s offense really struggled in 2023, and it is unknown if they can make the jump this year, particularly against better opponents. I expect Arizona to win a close game by 7-10 that ends up in a scenario where BYU needs a stop to get the ball back to try and tie or get within a couple points and they fail to do so as Fifita makes a play to get a key first down.
Saturday, Oct. 19th – Arizona vs Colorado
Winner: Arizona
Arizona is 1-2 years ahead of Colorado in the rebuild, and we’ll see how that plays out given Colorado’s unique approach to rebuilding and Arizona’s coaching change. This bodes well for Arizona that they are at home. Where Colorado could be benefitted is that they get this halfway through the season when they may still have some of their depth available.
Ultimately, while Colorado is certainly upgrading, they were so far behind at the line of scrimmage that I don’t think they can make up that ground against an Arizona squad that was pretty good at the line of scrimmage.
Saturday, Oct. 26th – Arizona vs West Virginia
Winner: Arizona
When I first made this pick, I had West Virginia. Now that we know the schedule, I like this for Arizona. While Arizona will have played 4 straight games at this point and competed against their toughest opponents, they are not yet running on fumes at this point, though it is close.
That’s why this game will be a close one or a blow out for Arizona. Either Arizona shocks the Mountaineers early on and jumps out to a big lead, using its athleticism to run past West Virginia. Or, West Virginia’s smash mouth approach keeps the game close and makes Arizona grind. West Virginia led the conference in rushing yards per game, which is a positive strategy for keeping a road game within striking distance.
Saturday, Nov. 2nd – Arizona at UCF
Winner: UCF
This is more of a schedule loss to me. While schedule losses are more common in the NBA, they can still happen in college football. It’s a long trip from Tucson to Orlando. This will be the 6th straight game that Arizona is playing and the 9th overall game of their season. Furthermore, UCF is electric at home. They can shock you (hello Oklahoma State) or shock themselves (hello Baylor’s 4th quarter comeback).
UCF was the second best rushing team in the conference, and KJ Jefferson is going to be a load for Arizona to handle, particularly at this point of the season. RJ Harvey is also going to be a bowling ball that will be hard to stop. Expect this to be an early game given the east coast schedule, but it should be a good one.
Saturday, Nov. 9th – BYE Week
Finally, Arizona gets another bye and boy will they need it. They’ll be grateful it finally came as they prepare for a manageable end to their schedule.
Friday, Nov. 15th – Arizona vs Houston
Winner: Arizona
Here is one of the uncertain games where we don’t know which day of the week it will occur. Arizona may prefer a Thursday date so that they have 2 extra days to prepare for TCU. And, they’ll have plenty of time to prepare for this game given that they will be coming off of a bye week. If this were basketball, it would be more exciting, but Arizona is the better team in college football.
Houston will be going through a first year coach. And Houston’s defense was one of the poorer defenses in the Big 12 last year. This bodes poorly for the Cougars, and in one of the several cat fights (Arizona has 3 of them – Kansas State, BYU, and Houston), I expect Arizona to win by several scores here.
Saturday, Nov. 23rd – Arizona at TCU
Winner: TCU
I think TCU will be better than this year and this one could be a crazy one for Arizona. I expect that this game will be exciting from a high scoring perspective. I think Arizona is going to have a lump here or there, and this is one of those games.
To be clear, this is a winnable game for the Wildcats. But, playing on the road at TCU is not easy. I don’t think Arizona will be looking ahead to the Territorial Cup. But, TCU is better than their record last year indicated.
Saturday, Nov. 30th – Arizona vs Arizona State
Winner: Arizona
I’m glad that this game exists in the Big 12 and is played on the 30th, aka Rivalry Week. I know that there was quite a bit of hoopla about the Big 12 schedule and the timing of their rivalries not occuring the last week of the season.
Well, that is not the case with this matchup. I expect that this matchup will be either in the third kickoff window or, more likely, in the late night window (10pm ET, 7pm PT). If Arizona is actually better than my predictions suggest, this game could get a slightly better time window.
Arizona State is in the thick of the rebuild and has questions at quarterback. In rivalry games, I like the program trending with more momentum and one at home, but these are really hard to predict. I still expect Arizona to take care of business as they are quite a bit better currently.
Feel free to find me on X and share your thoughts on my 2024 season predictions for the Arizona Wildcats. Remember, these are Never Too Early and always fun.
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