Baylor Bears 2024 College Football Season Predictions

It is never too early to take a guess, and the Baylor Bears in 2024 could have a season that is up or down again. Jake Spavital replaces Jeff Grimes at the OC coaching position. Gone are Mateos and Steward. Eric Mate and Khenon Hall join the Baylor coaching staff along with Gary Patterson as an analyst. The transfer portal still has a spring session period in which more changes could come, but only time will tell. I might be more accurate now than I will be in 9 months (doubt it), but this is still fun!

Ok, on to 2024 season predictions for the Baylor Bears!

Predictions

More details are below, but for the headliner predictions, I have Baylor going 6-6 in 2024 with the following details:

• Non-Conference schedule: 2-1
• Conference schedule: 4-5
• Overall record: 6-6

The State of the Baylor Bears’ Program coming into the 2024 Season

Who are the Baylor Bears under Dave Aranda? Are they the 12-2 team from 2021 that surprised the Big 12 and won the conference? Or, are they the 3-9 team from last year? Dave Aranda had a turnaround from 2020 to 2021 that was incredible – he went from 2 wins to 12 wins. But then Baylor started 2022 well and was ranked in the top 10 before spiraling. From the beginning of the 2021 season until 9 games through the 2022 season, Baylor went 19-5 (12-2 in 2021 and 6-3 in 2022). 

Then, something happened in Waco. Things started to get wacko (I bet Waco fans have never heard that before…). The not brown nor black Bears dropped their last 4 games of 2022 to finish that season 6-7, and then stumbled out of the gates in 2023, losing to Texas State and then to Utah. 

Baylor limped their way to a 3-9 finish. So, in the course of three seasons, Baylor fans saw their team go through one of the best stretches in recent program history with that 19-5 stretch only to watch it all collapse, finishing 3-13, with Dave Aranda hanging on by the chin of his usually shaved clean chin. 

The offensive coaching staff is getting reconfigured. By all accounts, Dave Aranda is a good guy, people who make staffing decisions in Waco like him, and I think he could be 2024’s version of Neal Brown or Matt Campbell. I think Baylor will bounce back to a bowl game, though I do not know think they’ll bounce back to 2021 heights. On to some season predictions for the Baylor Bears in 2024!

Baylor 2024 Season Predictions

So, here we go. Now we know the dates of when the matchups actually fall, (thank you Big 12 schedule release). Baylor plays the less favorable 5 road games and 4 home games schedule in 2024. 

Saturday, Aug. 31st – Baylor vs Tarleton State Texans

Winner: Baylor

Baylor is the victor here easily. However, I have to assume that Tarleton State is in the state of Texas due to their mascot being the Texans? I’ll admit, I haven’t a clue of where they are located, and I could google, but the intrigue is more appealing. So, as long as Baylor spends more time game planning than looking on Google Maps for where Tarleton State is, the Bears should be fine.

Also, while I don’t know the name of Tarleton State’s mascot, it would be a missed opportunity  to not name him “Lord Tarleton the Texan”.

Saturday, Sept. 7th – Baylor vs Air Force Falcons

Winner: Baylor

Air Force got Baylor two years ago in the Armed Forces Bowl, and Air Force was really good this past year. Air Force’s offense travels well. But, I still like Baylor given the home factor and the opportunity for payback.

This is going to be a game to mark for Baylor fans. Not only will they desperately want the win, but they’ll want to see how their defense performs against a run heavy offense. Baylor allowed 5 yards per carry in 2023, which is not usually the recipe for winning football. While Air Force, ironically, is a ground attack team, you still hope that Baylor can allow less than 5 yards per game against the academy. Watch that metric to see whether or not Baylor made improvement in the offseason.

Saturday, Sept. 14th – Baylor at Utah Utes

Winner: Utah

The third game of the season is on the road at new Big 12 foe Utah, but because the game was already on the books prior to Utah’s invite and acceptance into the Big 12, the game is counted as a non-con game. This will be a challenge for Baylor. Utah has been incredible at home over the past 5 years. Utah muscled out a win last year without their star quarterback Cam Rising, and now that he is back, this game could turn into a bit of a rout.

Saturday, Sept. 21st – Baylor at Colorado

Winner: Colorado

Colorado is also rebuilding, and they’re gaining momentum. Their key weakness this past year was in the trenches, and of all the areas of a team to rebuild, this one takes the most work. This is not a Colorado prediction article, but suffice it to say, I like Colorado to keep taking steps, and with this game being home, I think Baylor suffers defeat. The buffalo defeats the bear. They should play this game at Yellowstone.

If Baylor wins this game, then their ceiling has clearly grown. I think they’ll come out of this game at 2-2, but if they come out at 3-1, then that is when they could start getting to that 8-4 range that West Virginia made it to in 2023.

Saturday, Sept. 28th – Baylor vs BYU

Winner: Baylor

Baylor handled BYU in 2021 in Waco. This reunites the two in what many fans on both sides are looking for in a friendly rivalry. Baylor wins this one because they still have good athletes who are big and fast – BYU is still learning to win on the road in the Big 12 and is still building a P4 level team.

When Utah shifted to the PAC-12, they struggled to win against teams on the road for several years. For instance, they lost to Arizona State the first 2 visits to Tempe. Sometimes in life we need repeat attempts before we figure the problem and solution. BYU is still figuring out the solution to win on the road.

Saturday, Oct. 5th – Baylor at Iowa State

Winner: Iowa State

If this game were in Waco, I’d take Baylor. Iowa State is a tough team to play, particularly at home. If this game ends up a night game, then all the more in the favor of Iowa State. Matt Campbell has proven that he builds competitive teams. With Baylor rebuilding, this game is the type where they have to be really sharp, and that is not usually a trademark of rebuilding teams.

Baylor gave up the third most amount of yards per game in the Big 12 in 2023. Rocco Becht threw for over 3,000 yards in 2023 as a freshman. Baylor faces a slew of really good quarterbacks in the first 6 games, and Rocco Becht is part of that crew.

Saturday, Oct. 12th – BYE Week

Baylor gets their first bye week after 6 games where I expect they’ll come in at 3-3 with the potential for them to get wins at Colorado and Iowa State. I expect that the low is 2-4, the high is 5-1, but the most likely path is 3-3.

Saturday, Oct. 19th – Baylor at Texas Tech

Winner: Texas Tech

Honestly, I could see this go either way. Another in-state matchup for Baylor means that the Bears leave Texas only 4 times the entire year. In fact, between October 6th and November 8th, Baylor will not leave the state of Texas. Great for them, because that means more opportunities for Texas bbq. 

Texas Tech was an enigma this past season. Up and then down. Down and then up. For that reason, I’m taking the home team in this one. Texas Tech was much better at home the past 2 years than they were on the road. They have returning production in Behren Morton and Tahj Brooks, so let’s see how they do against Baylor.

Saturday, Oct. 26th – Baylor vs Oklahoma State

Winner: Oklahoma State

I may be over indexing on Oklahoma State after they’ve played in the Big 12 title game in 2 of the past 3 seasons, but I like their no-nonsense approach. They are tough, like their coach, and they still have a good amount of talent. These two have traded blows the past few years, with Baylor getting the last one. I like Oklahoma State to win on the road. If Baylor hasn’t fixed their line of scrimmage, then Ollie Gordon is going to have a career day here. 

Saturday, Nov. 2nd – Baylor vs TCU

Winner: Baylor

A heated rivalry that is great within the Big 12, and another in-state matchup. The Bluebonnet Battle does not get the featured appearance on November 30th. I know that is disappointing to many. However, this could still be a really fun game to watch. 

TCU is another team that is hard to project, but I like Baylor’s opportunity here to pull another surprise and win, with the momentum of being at home helping out here. Besides, I like Baylor to get to a bowl game, and I have them coming into this game at 3-5 and desperately needing a win, which I expect them to get.

Saturday, Nov. 9th – BYE Week

The second bye comes at a good time for Baylor. They’ll be exhausted by the time of the first bye, but the second bye will break up their remaining 6 games equally and should allow for the opportunity to recover as they make their sprint to a bowl game.

Saturday, Nov. 16th – Baylor at West Virginia

Winner: West Virginia

Morgantown looks beautiful. I’d like to go there some day. West Virginia beat Baylor the last time that the Bears traveled to play the Mountaineers on the road. 

I don’t see West Virginia being as good next year as this year, but they are a bruising team and are at home. Baylor needs help on their lines of scrimmage, so I expect West Virginia to win. West Virginia does play several of the top teams in the conference and will be coming off of a fairly challenging stretch of their schedule. So, there is a chance that Baylor steals this game if West Virginia is struggling with their rhythm. 

Saturday, Nov. 23rd – Baylor at Houston

Winner: Baylor

A new coach at Houston, Willie Fritz, will do good things there. But, Houston really struggled in year 1 of the Big 12. In-state matchup means travel isn’t a burden for Baylor. And, Fritz will need to rebuild, so I like Baylor catching Houston at this point on the road of the Fritz tenure.

As I think more about the schedule, this game may end up being a loss for Baylor, and yet I think they’d pick up a victory where I have them marked down for a loss. Either way, they’ll get to a bowl game. Given the in-state feature of this matchup, I’d love to see this game played every year.

Saturday, Nov. 30th – Baylor vs Kansas

Winner: Baylor

I currently have Kansas in the Big 12 title game against Utah, but I don’t think Kansas will be perfect. Baylor beat Kansas two years ago at home, and Kansas’ Jalon Daniels’ hasn’t proved he can be healthy 100% of the time, so I like Baylor to win this with the assumption that Daniels is not playing at 100%.

This might be the most incongruent pick that I’ve made on both schedules, and yet, college football always serves up a fair share of incongruencies and oddities. This could be an amazing game to watch as Baylor might be fighting for bowl eligibility and Kansas might be playing for a ticket to Arlington.

If Baylor corrected their line of scrimmage, then they definitely can win. If not, they’ll lose this game by several scores.

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