BYU Cougars 2024 College Football Season Predictions

It is never too early to take a guess, and the BYU Cougars return for their sophomore season in the Big 12 during the 2024 season. I’m labeling my BYU Cougars 2024 season predictions as never too early because it is never too early to guess a return to fame and glory (or a crash and burn instead of fame and glory…). It is exciting to be in a conference for BYU fans. Independence brought a host of exciting opportunities to play all over the place, from USC, to Nebraska, to Michigan, to Wisconsin, and Notre Dame, etc…

But the return to a conference means that the first loss of the season does not ruin everything. The independence era was marked by a partially but not fully spoken reality that BYU needed to go undefeated to even get their name in the hat for a NY6 bowl. 

I’ve spent my fair share of time perusing CougarBoard and the overall sentiment on the program is mixed. Fans are either (a) depressed or (2) decidedly checked out for a while as BYU recuperates, or (c) feeling ok because they expected the first season to be tough.

Fans were indexing to somewhere between a 6-6 to 8-4 start. I will give my fellow Cougar fans credit for not guessing that BYU would shoot the moon in the inaugural season. While I never went on record with a pre-season prediction, I generally assumed the team would end up 6-6. When the team got to 4-1 and 5-2, I thought that BYU had about a 75% chance to get to a bowl game.

I was high on the Cougars before Arkansas and wrote a piece that played into the “What if…?” game that fans try to avoid but can’t help themselves from doing. I didn’t expect BYU to do what I suggested they could do in the piece, but at the time, I also thought it was a possibility. 

We know what happened with BYU losing their last 5 games of the season en route to a 5-7 finish. So, where do we go from here this year? I’ll give my predictions below, but consider my analysis and schedule expectations – if BYU does not make a bowl game this year, I will still call the season a success if BYU shows more competitive juice.

Enough rambling though, let’s move on to BYU Cougars season predictions!

Record Predictions

More details are below, but for the headliner predictions, I have BYU finishing with a 4-8 record with the following breakout:

• Non-Conference schedule: 2-1
• Conference schedule: 2-7
• Overall record: 4-8

The State of the BYU Cougars’ Program coming into the 2024 Season

BYU heads into its first Big 12 offseason with an opportunity to improve dramatically. They need to retool the offensive line (including the coaching staff as it is not yet settled who will coach as of this writing). The trenches on both sides of the ball really need some bolstering, and that will need to come via the Transfer Portal. This team lacked a real strong identity on the offensive side of the ball. That will need to change next season to have more success.

But, I believe it is going to be a challenge again in year 2 of the Big 12. The defense will continue to get tested, though I believe they are finding their identity one step faster than the offense. The defense needs to replace some strong cornerback play and hope to return depth and skill at the secondary position. The line backing unit got really thin as well this year, though the hope is that the young guys who played this year will see huge growth going into next year.

The comparison to Utah’s jump to the P5 is going to be used over and over for the next several years. I’m not going to shy away from it, because fans of the 4 schools who made the P5 jump this past year are going to need to remember that the jump takes time. Utah struggled in its first few years. After a 7-5 regular season in its first year in the Pac-12, they went 5-7 the next two years and won 5 conference games in seasons 2 and 3 combined while winning 4 conference games in season 1.

Because I don’t have the scores in the BYU Cougars 2024 season predictions, success will only be interpreted by win-loss record. In my opinion, the 2024 season success should be defined less by record and more by competitiveness. Once the Cougars become more competitive, the record and wins will follow. But, in 2024, try to not lose by 30+ multiple times on the road. You see how BYU did improve at the end of the season by losing to the Oklahomas by a combined score of 13 points.

I am predicting BYU to finish at 4-8. But, because this is college football, I won’t be too surprised if one or two of the home games I don’t think they’ll win will actually flip and be a home win.

BYU 2024 Season Predictions

So, here we go. Now we know the dates of when the matchups actually fall, (thank you Big 12 schedule release). BYU plays the favorable 5 home games and 4 road games schedule in 2024. 

Saturday, Aug. 31st – BYU vs Southern Illinois Salukis

Winner: BYU

This should be a winnable game for BYU. Watch to see if BYU comes out and performs better here than they did against Sam Houston State. I was slow last year to see that the Sam Houston State game did point out immediate and long-term problems. Now, in year 2, I will watch to see what this game highlights (or lowlights).

Pay particular attention to the following: rushing yards per carry (gained and allowed), pressure coming from the defensive line, and who is BYU’s go-to receiver. Obviously, the quarterback position will be one of intrigue to follow here too. If the QB battle is not clearly decided in spring or fall camp, then this game could serve as a tryout. 

Friday, Sept. 6th – BYU at SMU Mustangs

Winner: SMU

SMU had a sneaky good year this year and they won the AAC, beating Tulane in the conference championship game. Plus, they ride off into the AAC sunset by heading east to join the ACC. Man, talk about confusing acronyms of conferences. “As long as it has an A or a C in the conference name, we’ll join it!” 

This road game spells trouble for BYU in my opinion. Yes, BYU played SMU in the bowl game of 2022, so there is some familiarity there. But, early season while you are working out kinks. SMU had one of the best defensive success rates in the country in 2023. That means, they were really good at preventing teams from getting the yardage they need to be on schedule for getting the first down by 3rd down (make sense?). I think SMU snatches this one from BYU in a painful manner. Don’t let the fact that BYU has been in the P4 one season longer than SMU fool you into thinking that BYU is on an entirely different playing field than the Mustangs.

Saturday, Sept. 14th – BYU at Wyoming Cowboys

Winner: BYU

I put BYU to win 2 of the non-con games. Southern Illinois is obvious #1. But, then two road games at Wyoming and SMU…I almost had BYU losing both. Wyoming is tough to play at, plus the Cowboys despise BYU. Despise is not a strong enough word. I take BYU here though because the head coaching change at Wyoming and the timing of when this game occurs means that BYU gives the fans in Laramie one more reason to despise the Cougars.

BYU’s talent and desperation should be enough to get the win here, but I don’t expect this to be a walk in the park. I expect BYU to win by no more than 7 points.

Saturday, Sept. 21st – BYU vs Kansas State

Winner: Kansas State

Kansas State is facing a similar situation to Oklahoma State last offseason. Losing some of its coaching staff. Losing some of its best players to the portal. Somewhat faded down the stretch. I like Kansas State to come back next year and be a really good team again. Not perfect, but really good. Despite this being a home game for BYU, this is still a new for BYU, and Kansas State is tough in the trenches, which is still a weakness for BYU.

This is quite the way to start off the conference schedule and home slate. In one of the many matchups that involve a species of a cat, the Cougars and Wildcats are going to battle because Provo is difficult to play in. I expect this to be a later game (likely an 8:15pm local time kick), and would expect BYU’s fanbase to help the Cougars keep this game close for a while. This is going to be the first major test for BYU fans to see if the defensive line has been revamped sufficiently or if 2025 is going to be the year that the line gets better.

Saturday, Sept. 28th – BYU at Baylor

Winner: Baylor

BYU is still learning to win on the road. I went back and forth on whether BYU would lose this game similar to last time or if it would be much closer. Having watched Utah adjust to the Pac-12 road environments, there are teams and locations where it takes a team a few cracks before learning how to break the safe open and win. (I am not promoting breaking into safes). 

I’m expecting BYU to lose this game and drop to 2-3. The ceiling at this point of the schedule would be for BYU to go 4-1 (losing to KState) and the floor would be 1-4 with the sole win coming against the Salukis. Where BYU has a chance to win this game is if Baylor is showing signs of not recovering from last year and is struggling to figure out their quarterback position. 

Saturday, Oct. 5th – BYE Week

BYU gets a bye week at a good spot here, which is about where they got it in 2023 after 5 games. Their bye weeks help split up the games fairly well. The nice thing for BYU fans is that this completely opens up general conference weekend for fans, players, and staff.

Saturday, Oct. 12th – BYU vs Arizona

Winner: Arizona

You could convince me that BYU picks up this victory, but for now I have BYU losing this one. I’m seeing many predictions that BYU finds a way to win this game. For that to happen, BYU’s defensive line would have needed to show significant improvement at this point in order to stop Noah Fifita’s arm attack. Fifita didn’t show to be a threat on the run last year (rushing for negative yards and only 38 attempts). But, if he has time to connect with Tetairoa McMillan, then BYU could see this game slip away from them.

And, Arizona’s defense was really solid last year, statistically speaking. BYU’s rushing game is still a question this year, and Arizona was solid against the run, so this is going to be a matchup to watch. BYU will need to rush the ball respectively in order to have a chance offensively.

This starts BYU’s most difficult stretch (if you zoom in to a 4 game stretch). 

Saturday, Oct. 19th – BYU vs Oklahoma State

Winner: Oklahoma State

Of all the games on the schedule that I thought about flipping, this was the one. It’s a return game and Kalani has been good in those. It is at home. But, had Oklahoma State played BYU for 60 minutes they way they played in the second half, that game would have been another ~30+ beatdown. This Oklahoma State is among the class of the conference, and beating them won’t come easy.

Ollie Gordon returns along with Alan Bowman. BYU is going to have to stop Ollie Gordon, which they didn’t, if they want to win this game. This is going to be game 7, and I expect BYU to fall to 2-5 after this game, but this is going to be a game that will help BYU find out if their defense is improved and they’ll get to a bowl game or if they’ll finish with 4 to 5 wins. 

Saturday, Oct. 26th – BYU at UCF

Winner: UCF

If this game were in Provo, I’d lead BYU. But, this feels like more of a scheduling loss. BYU rarely goes to Florida. That’s a long haul. It puts teams like BYU out of their routine. This game feels like one of those where a few bad plays happen early, and BYU is playing from behind by several scores and never recovers.

Of all the games on the schedule, this game appears to me to be the highest likelihood of a blowout. This is also BYU’s toughest road game in my book, just ahead of Baylor and SMU. UCF will punish BYU if they do not fix their defensive line issues. While K.J. Jefferson is certainly a familiar face and BYU played well against him last year, he also carved up BYU in 2022. So, this game could go either way.

Saturday, Nov. 2nd – BYE Week

BYU gets their final bye at the beginning of November, which allows them 1 extra week to prepare for the Holy War. They are also going into a stretch with 3-4 winnable games. The feeling around Cougar nation might be doom and gloom, but the last 4 games should present themselves as winnable.

Saturday, Nov. 9th – BYU at Utah

Winner: Utah

If anyone from Cougar Board is reading this, then welcome! But, there is a chance that I’ve lost all readership from there by predicting Utah, and that is ok. When this game kicks off, it will be 18 years since BYU last beat Utah in Salt Lake City. That was the Beck to Harline game (gives me the chills every time I re-watch it). I think BYU is going to go two full decades before they can end that losing streak in SLC. With Cam Rising returning, Utah is going to be good next year.

Utah got some good talent from the transfer portal as well, and key injuries from last year are coming back healthy. This game should be a coin toss. I don’t expect a 54-10 situation. This should be a hard fought game, but ultimately I expect BYU to lose by 7-10 points. It’s going to hurt. But, it’s going to be great to have the Holy War back in a conference setting and guaranteed on an annual basis.

Saturday, Nov. 16th – BYU vs Kansas

Winner: Kansas

The last of BYU’s 5 game gauntlet. I believe BYU to have one of the more difficult schedules in the Big 12 as I expect them to play the best 5 teams in the conference in a period of 7 games. 

I currently have Kansas in the Big 12 title game against Utah, so, I am high on Kansas. If Jalon Daniels is healthy, I think Kansas wins. Clearly, here I am making that assumption. If he is not healthy, then I think BYU has a fighting chance. Kansas is no longer the Kansas we thought of for many years. As long as Leipold is there, we need to think of Kansas as an upper echelon team in the new Big 12.

Kansas has an offense that is relentless on the ground, yet their defense was stout, particularly against BYU last year (9 yards rushing). BYU’s hope is that Jalon Daniels is not 100%, and then they have a fighting chance.

Saturday, Nov. 23rd – BYU at Arizona State

Winner: BYU

While Arizona State is still rebuilding, I like BYU to get its first Big 12 road victory, albeit over a former Pac-12 member. The travel here is in BYU’s favor in that it is a short flight via Breeze Airways (I seriously want to try flying their airline). I get my time zones mixed up but depending on when they play in AZ they might be on Pacific time zone or they might remain in the Mountain time zone. BYU has enough talent to win this game if they can pull it together without big mistakes.

Saturday, Nov. 30th – BYU vs Houston

Winner: BYU

The home game here matters for BYU, and this reminds me of the Cincinnati home game from the 2023 season. BYU plays a team that is bringing in a new coach, and there will be adjustments. Besides that, Houston is going to go from playing in front of ~5K fans to ~65K fans, so the crowd difference will be notable. In a battle for Cougar supremacy, I think BYU takes this round.

This game could have quite a bit at stake for one or both of the squads. BYU may be fighting for bowl eligibility. While I don’t think it is likely, Houston could be doing the same. At this point of the season, both teams will be injured and digging into their reserves. It bodes well for both teams that the schedule softened a tad towards the very end of the schedule for that reason.

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