BYU football finds itself heading into its second season in the Big 12 and facing a challenging schedule. My 2024 schedule analysis suggests that this schedule is actually more difficult than the 2023 schedule. How will BYU fare? You can read my season predictions for BYU in 2024 to find out – I’m optimistic that BYU will be better, but I am not describing success as a bowl game appearance. More on that later.
Before we jump into some of the analysis, let’s level set on my expectations of success for BYU football in 2024:
- Improve on the 2023 campaign
- Improve on the 2023 campaign
- Improve on the 2023 campaign
That’s it. Make improvements. That wasn’t a typo either. I simply want to see BYU be better next year, and I’ll explain in more detail how I will measure that.
I’m not measuring success in terms of victories and bowl game appearances. BYU could go 5-7 again in 2024 and show dramatic improvement, and I would call that a success. BYU might even go 4-8, and there is a scenario where I would call that success. More to come on this below, but the manner in which I am measuring said improvements is going to be how competitive BYU is in their games.
2024 Schedule Analysis
As it relates to schedule analysis, I have three key takeaways to walk through:
- BYU’s most difficult opponents will travel to Provo while BYU will travel to their more vulnerable opponents – This makes for a more challenging schedule
- Mid-October to Mid-November could be another challenging stretch for BYU
- Playing the Holy War on a different week than Thanksgiving weekend will be ok in the end
I’ll walk through each takeaway below in more detail. FYI – you can find the Big 12 schedule here.
Takeaway #1 – BYU’s home vs road matchups are not favorable
As you look at the opponents that BYU will play in 2024, you start to realize that they play most of their toughest opponents at home. Initially, you might be thinking, “Sweet! We get our hardest games at home, so we have a better chance of beating these guys!” And, I would agree with you on that assessment. BYU’s probability of beating Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Arizona, and Kansas is going up dramatically because they are playing those games at LaVell Edwards Stadium.
Then, you look at BYU’s road matchups in conference play, and most of those road matchups are against teams that are vulnerable and beatable by 2023 standards. I don’t expect Arizona State, Houston, or Baylor to become elite Big 12 teams in 2024. So, now you may be starting to think, “We can win several of these games! We might even be able to sweep those three teams.”
Now, you put on the blue goggles, and you start to think that BYU will win at least 3 of those home games in conference. But, you really think there is a case to win 4. You’re not yet ready to say they’ll win all 5 home games (but you secretly hope they will and partially expect it), so you back down and say, “I think they can get to 4 wins at home in conference.”
And the road games – you’re going to want to say, “We should beat Arizona State. Baylor was horrible last year so we should beat them. UCF is not better than us, so we should beat them. And Utah! What have they done in the PAC-12! They lost the Rose Bowl twice and brag about it! We got them in the bag like 2006.”
Perhaps you hedge slightly and say, “Well, maybe we drop one on the road.” So, you’re backing into expectations of a conference record somewhere in the neighborhood of 6-3 or 7-2. Throw on top of that the 3 non-conference wins that you expect, and you’re starting to think that BYU could get to 8, 9, or 10 wins. A bowl game is must and is expected.
But, in the words of Lee Corso, “Not so fast my friend.”
Now, I have been tempted to think with these blue goggles in the past. And, there is a large swath of BYU fans who were scarred by 2023 and are trying to figure out where to resettle their expectations, so they are hesitant to set their sights as high as 8-4, 9-3, or 10-2.
So, I’m here to help you. Remember when I said that a bowl game appearance is not my measure of success this year? Well, as I look at this schedule, I see a tough, and unlikely road for BYU to get to a bowl game, and yet I see an opportunity for BYU to perform better than they did last year because of how the schedule sets up.
Here is why I believe that.
When you think about BYU’s probability of winning each game, you’d like BYU to be above 50%. However, I expect that BYU will only be above that 50% threshold in 4 games all season.
If you want BYU to get to a bowl game, then you do not want a large number of toss-up games. Those 50/50 games could go either way, and the ball could bounce the wrong direction for BYU in 2024 just as much as it could bounce in the right direction.
But, this is likely what will happen. See, most of BYU’s home games are against tough opponents. If BYU was playing on the road against Kansas State, Arizona, Oklahoma State, and Kansas, then their average win probability would be 25% or below. Getting them at home raises the probability, but I don’t think it raises the probability enough, like, above 50% enough. So those games likely result in losses.
Then, the road games are against vulnerable opponents. If BYU were playing Arizona State, Baylor, and UCF at home, then the average win probability would be in the 65% – 70% range. But, because those games are on the road, you have to factor in travel, environment, and other miscellaneous conditions that decrease the win probability. In my estimation, the win probability drops to that 50/50 range.
Thus, instead of getting 6 games with a win probability of 75% and 6 games with a win probability of 25%, where you almost feel like a lock for 6-6 and a bowl game, you are getting a schedule with a bunch of games with a win probability in the 30 and 40 percent ranges.
This makes for a very challenging schedule for BYU. And, on the flip side, I will admit that it could also yield for a very fruitful schedule where BYU very well could end up 8-4.
The odds of BYU getting to a bowl game are low, in my humble opinion. But, the odds of BYU improving and being competitive are high! And, that is in large part because their hardest games are at home while their more winnable games are on the road. So, this can still be an encouraging season even if there are frustrating and heartbreaking moments.
Utah is an odd matchup (more to come on that later) because it is a bitter rivalry, and home vs road doesn’t matter as much in my opinion. So, that one becomes more about quality of team and then sheer emotion and who is better at being disciplined, focused, and executing.
Takeaway #2 – Mid-October to Mid-November will be challenging again in 2024
From Mid-October to Mid-November 2023, BYU football suffered mightily. Sparing the one highlight, which was a victory against Texas Tech, BYU lost 4 games by a combined total of 124 points. They lost each game by 31 points on average! And, they only scored 37 points in those 4 games. Ouch! (Don’t remind us!)
October 2024 is going to be another fascinating month for the Cougars. This is the toughest stretch (really, if you include Week 2 through Week 11, then you have a really hard stretch, but this is the gauntlet). BYU will play Arizona and Oklahoma State in back to back weeks. That is followed up with a cross-country journey to Florida to take on UCF. After a bye week, BYU travels to Salt Lake City to take on their rival Utes. Then, the gauntlet finishes with a home rematch against the Kansas Jayhawks. Yikes!
There is a very real possibility that BYU goes winless through that stretch. Very real. I don’t expect BYU to be favored in any of those five games.
That slate of games puts BYU up against arguably four of the five best teams in the conference. All five of those teams went to a ball game last year.
I know here’s where that stretch gets interesting.
Save for a three day stretch from October 24th to October 26th, when BYU plays UCF, BYU is not going to leave the state of Utah between September 29 until November 22nd. That’s almost two months!
In this stretch, BYU plays 4 games in the state of Utah, 3 of which are home games. They have two bye weeks. And they have one week where they travel out of state (which does happen to be their longest journey of the year).
I’ve been hesitant to pick BYU in any of those five games, but this is the kind of detail that gets you wondering and somewhat hopeful. Will BYU’s lack of travel enable them to remain in their daily routine? Will playing in front of their own fans that often keep them loose and confident?
This is where BYU’s season will be made. If they come out of this stretch with two wins, then they will make it to a bowl game.
Takeaway #3 – Playing the Holy War on a different week than Thanksgiving weekend will be ok in the end
That’s not a real spicy take. I sympathize with those who want this on Thanksgiving weekend. If I had to pick a date, it would be hard to persuade me from the tradition of rivalry week. And yet, I understand why this game could get lost amidst some of the SEC’s and Big Ten’s best rivalries that weekend.
I agree that putting this on the 9th of November, when LSU vs Bama is the only real marquee game at current glance, gives the Holy War a chance for more national attention. That creative strategy could yield dividends down the road. Many fans have pointed out that the Big 12 has set their key rivalries all across the board. Two of their marquee rivalry games are played on November 30th, but the others are strewn out, mostly falling one after another:
- The Sunflower Showdown – Kansas State vs Kansas —> October 26th
- The Bluebonnet Battle – TCU vs Baylor —> November 2nd
- The Holy War – BYU vs Utah —> November 9th
- Farmageddon – Kansas State vs Iowa State —> November 30th
- The Territorial Cup – Arizona State vs Arizona —> November 30th
Note, there are some other games that may not have official rivalry names but could develop into some great matchups to come over the next few years such as Colorado vs Kansas State, Cincinnati vs West Virginia, or Houston vs Baylor.
The Big 12 may have strategically tried to stretch their rivalries out in order to highlight several at unique times and draw attention to key matchups. Or, there could be another reason for this type of scheduling.
What I think is getting lost amongst fan conversations is that the Big 12 said in their press release that geography was one of their main criteria in creating the schedule. Let me point you back to my key takeaway #2 – BYU leaves the state of Utah for only three days in about a two month period.
Now, I get that travel in football with weekly games is different than travel in the NBA with near nightly games. But, it is still travel. Travel takes you out of your routine and requires extra mental exertion to plan for and execute a routine that mimics your home routine.
By striving for more balance in travel geography, the Big 12 avoids unfairly penalizing some of its schools with out of balanced travel. This plays into what I perceive as the Big 12’s strategy in leveling the playing field for its member institutions. Because the Big 12 no longer has a blue blood program in the conference to carry the banner nationally, its calling card is to be the most competitive and surprising conference in the country.
It wants to create scenarios where there could be 6 – 8 teams competing for a spot in the conference title, and ideally, 3 or 4 of those teams are ranked pretty high in the polls as the calendar turns to November. Rather than being a 1 or 2 horse race, like the Big 10 has been for much of my life, the Big 12 can have multiple horses fighting for position.
One other key point to highlight is that the Big 12’s feature rivalry for the past 28 years has been the Red River Rivalry (yes, there were other big rivalries like Nebraska – Colorado, Texas – Texas A&M, etc…). And, that Red River Rivalry is played when? On the second Saturday in October. Not the end of November.
Granted, that game is between two blue bloods, but we’re talking about a conference that has had their marquee rivalry game played at the halfway mark of the season. So, can the Big 12 stake a claim in a different week in the calendar going forward? Certainly.
Fans in the SEC have come to love LSU vs Texas A&M, which was a new rivalry that really started as A&M joined the league. So, with Colorado coming over, or with Utah coming over, or the new schools that joined in 2023, the Big 12 has potential to create some spice throughout the calendar.
Expectations for BYU football in 2024
As I said at the top, I am not placing my hat on the bowl game rung. I want to see BYU improve their point differential – that’s my metric of success. BYU needs to be more competitive. Remember what I mentioned earlier – BYU lost 4 games in conference last year by a difference of 124 points! Losing one game by 31 points is one thing. But, consistently doing that, week over week, is bad. And, BYU didn’t even average 10 points in those games! They averaged just over 9 points in those games.
Look at the chart below and you will see that BYU struggled with their point differential last year. Of the 16 teams in the league this year, BYU had the 13th worst point differential.
Data come from CFBFastR
BYU needs to close that gap. Can they get to a -30 point differential? If they went 5-7 again, then that would put their average margin of defeat at about 4 points. What I am proposing is heartbreak city in 2024. I am prescribing more heartburn, more anxiety, and more stress because I want to see the games be decided in the final 5 minutes rather than in the first 5 minutes like they were in 2023.
Now, to be clear, I want BYU to get to a bowl game. Absolutely. Yet, it is not my expectation.
The primary reason is that BYU is still acquiring depth at all positions and trying to upgrade all across the board. There is certainly some excitement about what the Cougars picked up on signing day, particularly along the defensive front line. However, those pickups are replacements to what was lost last year.
BYU is still working with a front line that can’t afford to get injured (this is assuming that the talent pans out). The depth is still thin. What BYU needs is to start stacking multiple recruiting classes of talent, particularly along the trenches, before they’ll be ready to reach into the 8 to 10 win category, or even bowl game territory.
Everyone pointed to Utah last year as the model. Utah did make it to a bowl game their first season, but then they went two years without a bowl game. The Big 12 has been a better league from top to bottom than the PAC 12 was, so the task for BYU to get to a bowl game is challenging. But, now it appears that we’ve forgotten that model and simply want BYU to get to a bowl game.
Utah took multiple seasons to stack talent until the point where BYU fans were extremely discouraged and wondering if they’d ever beat Utah in a recruiting battle (which they did this year).
I also have questions about the quarterback position. So much uncertainty causes me to be very cautious about what I expect.
I’ll have more on expectations throughout the offseason and leading up into the start of the season, but for now, I hope that BYU continues to do what it needs to do to prepare to be better. And, that will be good enough for me. I’m looking forward to another wild ride in 2024.
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