Cincinnati Bearcats Season Predictions for 2024

Cincinnati’s welcome to the Big 12 was…well…rough. They were in good company though, or, perhaps, poor company, with the other three newcomers in 2023, as all four teams struggled in conference play. UCF was the only one of the four to qualify for a bowl game. In 2023, Cincy started out 2-0 and then went on a seven game skid, and finished 3-9 by losing 9 of their last 10 games.

This is a program that was once at the P6 level, back when the Big East existed. Since the program started playing in 1954, Cincinnati has won 10+ games in eight seasons, three of which came between 2018 and 2021. This is a program that has certainly flown high since about 2007 when Brian Kelly came on the scene and won 10+ games in three straight seasons.

Why do I bring up the past in an article about the future? Because, this program went through a difficult year, and it will likely have another difficult year next season. And, I wouldn’t fault Cincinnati fans for feeling some discouragement. However, given their location and proven ability in recent years to be highly competitive, I don’t expect Cincinnati to be down for the long-term. It might take another 2-4 years to really get competitive in the Big 12, but I like Cincy’s upside, particularly given their geographic location and ability to pluck talent from their fruitful fields of the Ohio valleys.

Enough rambling though, let’s move on to some season predictions for 2024 for the Bearcats!

Predictions

More details are below, but for my season predictions for 2024 results, I have Cincinnati finishing 6-6. See the following breakout:

• Non-Conference schedule: 3-0
• Conference schedule: 3-6
• Overall record: 6-6

The State of the Cincinnati Bearcats’ Program coming into the 2024 Season

Cincinnati’s Scott Satterfield enters year 2 of his tenure. An interesting tidbit is that both Luke Fickell and Butch Jones went 4-8 in year 1 and then won 10+ games in year 2. The conference circumstances were certainly different, so I’m not going to predict a 10+ win season. The coaching staff appears to be sitting fairly tight right now (as of this writing), and we don’t yet know what the portal will give (or take).

This program was riding high between 2018 through 2022. I’m not trying to be fickle when I say that Luke Fickell brought this program their greatest success. While Brian Kelly helped bring Cincinnati into the national landscape’s attention for the first time, Fickell brought Cincinnati to the CFP.

Cincinnati lost 11 games between 2018 and 2022 while they won 53 games. That is a record that most programs would give a lot of NIL money to have. So it is with this most recent success, and a humbling 2023 season that should bring Cincinnati back to the 2024 table hungrier and more ready to fight. 

Emory Jones has exhausted his eligibility, so Satterfield and the Cats must decide whether to look internally (Brady Licthenberg was the only other QB to throw a pass in 2023) or look externally. The receiving corp was very experienced and will turn over some of that experience. 

This is a program that has been near the top of college football in the past. While they didn’t set the tone at the top like an Alabama or a Georgia, they made it to the CFP and had great success under Brian Kelly. These fans know great when they see it. Cincinnati is not going to become a punching bag for the Big 12. Sure, the program is taking some lumps and will likely continue to take some lumps. But, the program will eventually rise.

Cincinnati Bearcats 2024 Season Predictions

So, here we go. Now we know the dates of when the matchups actually fall, (thank you Big 12 schedule release). Cincinnati plays the less favorable 4 home games and 5 road games schedule in 2024.

Saturday, Aug. 31st – Cincinnati vs Towson Tigers

Winner: Cincinnati

Points to anyone who can tell me where Towson is. I know I could look it up, but more fun this way. This will be an opportunity to see if Cincinnati comes out roaring in a fight between tigers and bears…well, bearcats. If they do, then look for Cincinnati to meet my expectations. It is nice to have this game before a rugged match with Pitt the following week.

Saturday, Sept. 7th – Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh Panthers

Winner: Cincinnati

This will be a very telling matchup for Cincinnati this year, and I like them to beat Pitt. Pitt was not a great team last year, and Cincy won on the road. Look less at the score in this game and more at what you see Cincinnati struggling with and excelling at. Turns out, after two games you do start to see trends for most teams that continue throughout much of the season. Has Cincinnati corrected their red zone issues? Do they have someone they can start to trust at quarterback? This game will start to reveal those answers

Saturday, Sept. 14th – Cincinnati at Miami (OH) Redhawks

Winner: Cincinnati

Cincinnati gets a chance at redemption. While Miami of Ohio won the MAC this past year, and looked really good while doing it, I still think that Scott Satterfield and the Nippert faithful are going to show up and win this game in order to settle last year’s score.

Miami of Ohio won the MAC last year after avenging a loss to Toledo in the championship game. Brett Gabbert, who beat the Bearcats last year, should return from injury as the starting quarterback since Aveon Smith has transferred out as a grad transfer. That bodes well for the Redhawks, who went 11-3 last year. 

Saturday, Sept. 21st – Cincinnati vs Houston

Winner: Cincinnati

I think Cincy is going to start the season off 4-0 by beating Houston at home in a matchup of former AAC foes. With Houston’s coaching staff change, Cincinnati has the leg up. Throw in the fact that this game is at Nippert Stadium (a place I’d like to see a game at), and you have an opportunity for Cincinnati to flex its muscle against the former AAC foe.

This game will be interesting. Both teams were porous on defense. Cincy was better at running the ball while Houston was better at passing the ball. Houston has Donovan Smith coming back, but they lost one of their best receivers, Matthew Golden, in the transfer portal to Texas. They’ll have to hope that Mewki Mews, a Georgia transfer, can help fill that gap.

Saturday, Sept. 28th – Cincinnati at Texas Tech

Winner: Texas Tech

Texas Tech remains my enigma team for 2024. Are they going to do this next year what they were predicted to do in 2023? Or, are they going to lose when you think they’ll win? Texas Tech’s been doing great in recruiting the past few years now under Joey McGuire, so I like them to get this victory.

Texas Tech gets the added bonus of a favorable schedule at this point. This will be their third straight home game, and they’ll have played North Texas and Arizona State in the weeks prior, so they won’t exactly be licking many wounds. Scheduling could benefit Cincinnati to go to Tech earlier in the season, but I expect the Bearcats will suffer their first loss of the season here. And, then it is going to be a bit more painful after that.

Saturday, Oct. 5th – BYE Week

Cincinnati’s first bye will come at a good time, with 5 games under their belt, and it splits up a two game road stand. If you look out at the next three games, I have Cincy going 1-3, but there is a realistic world where they go 2-1, and if they really catch fire, they could go 3-0 depending on Colorado and UCF.

Saturday, Oct. 12th – Cincinnati at UCF

Winner: UCF

Cincy fans will not like me for this pick, but at least I’m picking up friends in UCF fans (until they see my predictions for them). However, this could go either way. I’m picking UCF given the home field advantage factor, but these two teams know each other from AAC days. Again, they had a similar statistical makeup defensively and offensively. They struggled to defend the run and yet the succeeded very well in producing a good rushing attack.

With RJ Harvey back and with KJ Jefferson coming into a Gus Malzahn offense, I think UCF is going to surprise some people. They’ll likely surprise me as well. Sometimes coming off a bye helps a team get healthy, but in this case I think it will be more stagnation. Keep in mind, UCF will have played at Florida the week before, so they are likely going to be sharp and coming in ready for a win after losing to the Gators. Or, they could be riding high if they shock the Gators.

Saturday, Oct. 19th – Cincinnati vs Arizona State

Winner: Cincinnati

Yes, Arizona State is making noise in the portal. But, I like Cincinnati’s ability to win this game. They were great last year at driving the ball down the field, and while they struggled in the red zone, I think this is a game where that is less of a challenge. Arizona State will be in an entirely new world for them this game. This game at home for Cincinnati will be a welcome sight after not playing at home for almost a month.

One metric to think about is that Cincinnati had a -71 point differential in 2023. In their seven losses, they lost by an average of 20 points. Arizona State had a -169 point differential in 2023. In their nine losses, they lost by an average of 21.4 points. So, they were not that much worse from a margin of defeat standpoint compared to Cincy. 

We’ll see what happens! 

Saturday, Oct. 26th – Cincinnati at Colorado

Winner: Colorado

As of this writing, Colorado is making moves in recruiting and in the portal, particularly to the offensive line. Last offseason, it was to the skill positions. This could go either way, but I like Colorado to win this game at home, and it could end up a really cold matchup depending on the time of the year that this game happens. Coach Prime exceeded expectations in year 1, so I anticipate he’ll do the same in year 2.

If Cincy can get to the Shadeur Sanders because Colorado hasn’t fixed their offensive line, then this is going to be a good ball game. And, if that is the case, then Cincy can and should win this game. We’ll know at this point if Colorado has fixed their line of scrimmage issues. If so, then watch out. This could be a multiple score victory.

Saturday, Nov. 2nd – BYE Week

Cincy’s second bye week splits up the back 7 games nicely. It gives them a chance to recover again and get set for a matchup against West Virginia, which is likely to come earlier in the week.

Saturday, Nov. 9th – Cincinnati vs West Virginia

Winner: Cincinnati

West Virginia is like Iowa State to me. They could easily be back down as both were in 2022, or they could do about the same thing they did in 2023. Generally, I think they’ll continue to beat the 2023 newcomers during the 2024 season. 

West Virginia was a senior laden team, and no one will be sleeping on them again this year. While West Virginia has a bye week as well prior, this game feels like a scheduling victory for Cincy. They’ll be eager to fight to get a bowl game. This victory would put them at 6-3 and in a bowl game appearance.

Throw in the fact that it will likely be a Thursday or Friday night matchup, and you have West Virginia out of its routine traveling away from home. I waffled back and forth and originally had West Virginia winning, but I’ve flipped and going to go Cincy.

Saturday, Nov. 16th – Cincinnati at Iowa State

Winner: Iowa State

Iowa State finished last year winning 5 of 7, and while last year was last year, they do return their starting quarterback Rocco Becht (no association with Rocko’s Modern Life from what I can glean). Cincy is going to have a difficult time on the road again in 2024, like the other newcomers, so this one goes to the Cyclones. 

I believe Iowa State is going to be bowl eligible again next year, which is a big reason why I like them to win this game at Ames. I expect this one to be gritty though. I expect there to be some nastiness and for some sparks to fly during the game. Expect this to be a slugfest.

Saturday, Nov. 23rd – Cincinnati at Kansas State

Winner: Kansas State

Kansas State is getting some noise for the pieces they are losing in the portal and coaching staff. The same was said of Oklahoma State last year. Yet, the Wildcats still represent the upper echelon of the new Big 12, and therefore, this is going to be a really tough challenge for Cincinnati while on the road.

Cincinnati should drop to 6-5 at this point. Avery Johnson could run all over Cincy if the defense hasn’t improved. And, Kansas State typically has a good defense as well, so getting red zone scores will prove to be more difficult, and I don’t think Cincy will make enough improvement to score a victory here.

Saturday, Nov. 30th – Cincinnati vs TCU

Winner: TCU

I’m optimistic about TCU having a slightly better season in 2024 than in 2023. TCU is explosive, and I wouldn’t say the same thing about Cincinnati, so this is stylistically a matchup of two different teams. TCU has plenty of athletes, and if they get up early, they can be hard to catch up to.

Where Cincinnati has the advantage is the run game (time of possession) and home field. They could easily keep TCU out of rhythm, though the Horned Frogs don’t always need rhythm since they are capable of scoring quickly. Nevertheless, Cincy’s route to victory is to grind and pound the ground here. But, I’m still sticking with TCU to pull out the victory.

About 3rd Down Analysis (3DA): With a goal of fueling fan’s college football passion, 3rd Down Analysis brings an important combination of understanding the game of football while also knowing how to interpret what the data are telling us. Through long-form content, 3DA achieves this goal by dissecting data that is not easily accessible to fans and then sharing the bigger themes that are playing out on the field. Additionally, the business and financial background of the creator enables 3DA to share a unique viewpoint on the broader themes playing out across the college football landscape.

3rd Down Analysis has three primary content focus areas:

1. BYU
2. Big 12
3. Current College Football big picture topics

If you have feedback, questions, content suggestions, or want to contribute, reach out to support@3rddownanalysis.com.

You can also search for the 3rd Down Analysis Podcast on Youtube, Apple Podcasts, or Spotify.