Hang in there BYU fans – The Big 12 roller coaster is beginning

While Saturday, September 23rd, 2023 in Lawrence, KS marked the start of the Big 12 era for BYU Football, Saturday October 14th, 2023 in Fort Worth, TX may stand to mark BYU’s “welcome to the Big 12” game. Surely, BYU had a “welcome to the league” moment against Kansas on their second play from scrimmage when Cobee Bryant pummeled Parker Kingston and then picked the ball up and scored. However, the game was still fairly competitive and Kansas did not put the game away until late in the 4th quarter. This was not the case against TCU. The Big 12 roller coaster is beginning, so hang in there BYU fans.

TCU also had a welcome to the Big 12 moment for BYU when Millard Bradford intercepted Kedon Slovis’ first pass on the third play of the game and took it to the house. For BYU fans who stayed to watch the painful loss, they would see TCU go on to quadruple BYU’s points in a 44-11 victory. Wearing the same uniforms that they wore in their painful loss at Liberty last year (I’m sensing a pattern with that uni combo…), BYU walked off the field demoralized, and fans were left with a wide sense of feelings. 

While fans are left to bemoan the loss and question whether BYU will win a single game the rest of the way, and analysts rightly so will dissect the nuances of the loss (I really like the After Further Review guys and Hans Olsen), this fanalyst has one message to Cougar fans:

Hang in there. I wrote last week that this could be a turning point in the BYU football program’s history, and I still believe that. A victory would have been great, but great lessons can be learned from a loss. And, we’ll see, but there is still hope for this to be a turning point. Nonetheless, hang on.

The Big 12 will be a roller coaster

The ups are going to feel high and the lows are going to feel low this year, more so than in past years. Yet, this year there is more to play for and against. While this time last year BYU was playing against teams that you thought were principles (Liberty) or wondered if there was a new state in the Carolinas (East Carolina), this year BYU is playing deep in the heart of Texas against TCU, Tech, and the Longhorn nation.

That is reason enough to rise and shout. But, here are three thoughts that might help to ease the pain from that TCU loss:

1. Remember that this was going to be a challenging year
2. BYU’s road to being competitive in the league is 3-5 years
3. Enjoy the positive plays and development amidst the losses

Remember that this was always going to be challenging

In the preseason polls, BYU was picked to finish 11th in the conference and often was not projected to make a bowl game. Around Provo, many people thought BYU could get as high as 8 wins. But, by and large, I heard constantly that BYU fans said bowl eligibility is the goal this year. 

I reference the fan comments to anchor these points. Bowl eligibility is still in play, but we all knew, fan or not, that BYU was not going to waltz into the Big 12 and dominate as it did in the MWC. 

If the goal in January was bowl eligibility, isn’t that still the goal now? What has changed to think otherwise? 

The sentiment around BYU achieving its bowl game goal seems to have changed since the Horned Frogs did to the Cougars whatever a Horned Frog does to its prey. Why is that? Were expectations starting to get detached from that bowl game eligibility goal?

The Arkansas win is a bit of a head scratcher, I’ll give you that. 

But when we look at the TCU game, this was still a team that played for the national championship the year before, that had a very talented roster, and this game was on the road. This was always supposed to be a loss. BYU may still be ahead of schedule given the Arkansas win.

Was there anything about the TCU game that would have changed whether BYU should win? Granted, the backup quarterback situation is a major variable to consider. In the most influential position in the game, having a good enough quarterback can make an immensely big difference. But, nonetheless, TCU still had plenty of skilled players surrounding that quarterback to make his life easy. This game was still on the road. 

BYU is still adjusting to life in the Big 12. From the day the schedule came out in January, this game was always going to be a major challenge. 

BYU’s road to being competitive in the league is 3-5 years

This holds true for the new coming schools in the big 12 this year. TCU and Utah are the obvious comparisons for teams who made the jump from group of five to P5. And this has been pointed out by many analysts and fans. But let’s go a little deeper into their journey.

Utah Utes

During Utah’s first season in the Pac 12, they went 8-5 and played in the Sun Bowl, however, they went 4-5 in conference play. They actually lost the first four conference games before winning their first conference game, which was towards the end of October. They went on a streak, then to win the next three conference games before dropping their last one on the road to Colorado. Here is a breakdown of their first year in the PAC-12:

2011

This was a Utah team that came from the top end of the MWC pecking order. The following two seasons Utah finished with a 3-6 and a 2-7 record in conference play on their way to two 5-7 seasons. Here is how their next two seasons shook out:

2012

2013

Starting in 2014, around the time you would have expected the new PAC-12 recruiting bump to really kick in at full force, Utah began arguably its best streak of football in program history. They went to a bowl game 7 of the last 8 years, including two Rose Bowl appearances and 2 PAC-12 Championship victories. And notice that while their point differential grew over those three years, their average margin of defeat dropped. They were close in each game, save for a couple of blowouts.

It might be hard for BYU fans to learn a lesson from their rivals up north, but the lesson there is patience. Kalani will continue to work the program the right way, and by 2026, BYU could be extremely competitive, starting to become a more regular favorite.

TCU Horned Frogs

TCU had a bit more of a sporadic experience, but nonetheless, they saw success relatively quick. They went 7-6 in their first Big 12 season, with a 4-5 conference record. That was followed by a 4-8 dud with a 2-7 conference play record. 

However, the next year, 2014, (remember that TCU left the MWC one year after BYU and Utah), they went 12-1, with an 8-1 conference record and a win in the Peach Bowl. 2015 was a fairly good follow-up with an 11-2 campaign and 7-2 conference record capped by an Alamo Bowl victory.

The Gary Patterson era saw some real highs, though it fizzled out towards the last few years. Now, Sonny Dykes could be the real deal in my opinion. TCU has the recruiting backyard most coaches would dream about.

Enjoy the positive plays and development amidst the losses

Let me give two examples from the game against TCU and one player development story. The Cougar defense picked off Josh Hoover twice in that game. One was a spectacular one-handed snag by Eddie Heckard, who I wish had several more years of eligibility remaining to play for the Cougars. The second was an interception by true freshman Siale Esera. 

Esera’s interception came late when the game was far from being close. But, plays like those are (1) satisfying to see and (2) impactful for that player’s development. Those type of plays build confidence in the guys, so when they see the field again, they now have game experience + positive momentum. 

Playing your depth chart in a big loss is not something coaches strive for, but if you’re going to be losing games, it is a great opportunity to build for the future, whether that future is November of this year or in 2024. 

The one player development story is Harrison Taggart. Certainly the team would like to have Ben Bywater on the field. No question. However, Taggart has performed remarkably well in his stead, all things considered. He is clearly learning each play. Watch when he misses a gap or an angle, he usually cleans that up the next opportunity. He is a good tackler who gets low and has great leverage when tackling. He wraps up well, is fast, and not afraid to take guys straight on.

If you look, you can find more of these good plays and development stories. These are the seeds that are getting planted now to be harvested later, whether that is this season or the next few years. 

So, hang in there BYU fans. Your time will come.