Houston Cougars Season Predictions for 2024

The Houston Cougars embark on their second season in the Big 12 and are turning a new leaf by bringing in Willie Fritz. This is a program that has experienced success since the mid 2000’s, which was the end of the Art Briles era. Since 2006, Houston has five 10+ win seasons, including two 13 win seasons and a 12 win season under Dana Holgorsen. 

In 2015, Houston beat Florida State in the Peach Bowl. While the success has not repeated year after year, the team has shown that it can pop for a year or two. And, it has potential to continue to grow into a power. Potential. I’m not predicting rise to a power here. But, there is potential.

Set aside the rough past five years (2021 was really good) under the Holgorsen regime, and you have a program that has a geographically strategic location: Texas. And, they are in a part of the state of Texas where they can reasonably tap deeper into SEC country into Louisiana.

Add in the fact that you have a supporter (well Board of Regents chairman, actually) in Tilman Fertita, plus the university is building a new football operations center, and you have a program that really wants to compete.

And, did you know that Houston is the third largest university in the state of Texas? Nearly 45,000 students are enrolled and I found on estimate of 310,000 alumni worldwide (I can neither confirm nor deny the truthfulness of those numbers).

Why the details? Houston is overlooked. True, their performance on the football field in the past year did not give people much of a reason to start looking at Houston. But, this is another one of those sleeping giants. However, that is a topic for another day.

Ok, enough – I’ll get to the real show here. Predictions! These are “Never Too Early” predictions, which means they are absurdly early, made without all of the transfer portal or recruiting information, and yet, they are still fun to make and might end up being spot on.

Predictions

More details are below, but for the headliner predictions, I have the following:

• Non-Conference schedule: 2-1
• Conference schedule: 0-9
• Overall record: 2-10

The State of the Houston Cougars’ Program coming into the 2024 Season

Houston is trying to recover from a difficult 2023 season. As I snoop around Houston fan boards, there are questions and discussions around the quarterback position. Clayton Tune was dynamite from a volume perspective in 2021 and 2022. Donovan Smith’s numbers were not the worst in the world, nor were they the best in the world. His touchdowns to interceptions ratio was not quite where you want it to be. 

Yet, he does have legs (ok, everyone has legs, but Smith was able to use his to rush for 438 yards in the 2023 season). He’s got flashes of dynamic athleticism that is handy in today’s college football world. He has one year of eligibility remaining. Perhaps year 2 in the Big 12 sees a jump for him.  

Unfortunately, he loses Matthew Golden, wide receiver who is moving southwest to Austin to play for the Horns. I’m not from Texas, but even I understand enough to know that that move leaves a sour taste in the mouths of Cougar fans. Golden was tied for best on the team in reception touchdowns in 2023 (6 TDs).

The chapter is not yet finished on the transfor portal comings and goings, so time will tell if UH is able to replace whatever they have lost. 

Perhaps the biggest question relates to Willie Fritz. Willie or won’t he be successful?

As of this writing, he’s brought in 18 transfers through the portal, only 3 of which came from Tulane. The numbers will surely fluctuate as we go through the spring transfer portal season, but, for now, Houston has 18 incoming and 13 outgoing transfers. The average player rating per 247 on those incoming transfers is 0.868, so essentially, 0.87, which is an average 3-star player. The average player rating on the outgoing transfers is 0.886, so almost 0.89. Several 4-star players are exiting the program.

While that is unfortunate for Houston, it is not surprising given the coaching change and the destination that these players are heading to. Texas and Oregon are a couple of the destinations that players are going to. You do expect players to jump tiers, and we have to be honest when we say that there is a tier within the Big 10 and the SEC that is another level than the Big 12.

Willie Fritz was 4-8 in his first season at Tulane and 5-7 in his second season. Interestingly, he went 6 seasons before he finally struck gold in his 7th season when he won 12 games. In fact, in his 6th season he went 2-10. Don’t expect the same trajectory at Houston. He’ll either hit that double digit win total within 3-4 seasons. Or, he will be gone after 5 if he has a similar track record to his tenure at Tulane where it was 2-7 wins per season for the first 6 seasons.

Season Predictions for 2024

So, here we go. Now we know the dates of when the matchups actually fall, (thank you Big 12 schedule release). Houston plays the less favorable 4 home games and 5 road games schedule in 2024.

Saturday, Aug. 31st – Houston vs UNLV Rebels

Winner: Houston

UNLV was really good last year. In fact, they played in the Mountain West Conference championship game. Even more in fact, UNLV won 9 games for the first time since 1979! Now, they lost their star quarterback Jayden Maiava, but they still have their head coach in Barry Odom, so perhaps he unlocked something in Sin City that others have not been able to yet. Having said all of that, this will also be game 1 for Willie Fritz, but I like that he starts at home. I think this game will actually be much closer than Houston fans would like it to be. The talent level at the P4 level should carry Houston, but only by about 3 points or so.

Saturday, Sept. 7th – Houston at Oklahoma Sooners

Winner: Oklahoma

These two did not get to play each other in 2023, though they have squared off before with Oklahoma winning the most recent matchup in 2019. This is going to be tough for Houston. If they lose this game, then I wouldn’t take much away from it. However, if they are competitive and give the Sooners problems, then that projection of a 3-9 record could change to 4-8 or 5-7. Where Houston has a chance is that Jackson Arnold, the presumed starting quarterback for Oklahoma, will be making only his 4th start. He’s good, but he’s still young, so if Houston can get to him early, then they could create some chaos.

But, the fact that this game is on the road does not bode well for the Cougars. Oklahoma is going to be a more complete team and should be able to win this game by double digits. But that wouldn’t be any reason for discouragement this year for the Cougars.

Saturday, Sept. 14th – Houston vs Rice Owls

Winner: Houston

Houston lost this game in 2023 against the cross-town foe by 2 points. Willie Fritz will understand the importance of winning this game and should have his guys ready. In 2022, Houston beat Rice by a touchdown (34-27) at TDECU stadium. Rice did make it to a bowl game this past year, which was the first time winning 6 games since 2014. So, are they heading in the right direction? I still like Houston to win this game by 2+ scores and feel some optimism coming into Big 12 play. Given this is in Houston, that helps the Cougars.

Saturday, Sept. 21st – Houston at Cincinnati

Winner: Cincinnati

Houston lost this game at home in 2023. So, perhaps the advantage goes to Houston to get payback on the road? Not likely this year. Houston and Cincinnati both struggled last year – Cincy struggled to stop the run while Houston couldn’t get much pressure on the quarterback. Neither team generated heaps of turnovers. And, Houston had a larger point differential, meaning, they lost their games by more. Cincinnati was great at running the ball last year (third best in the conference) while Houston was third worst in the conference.

So, I’m tempted to say that Houston redeems themselves. However, I’m going to assume that home field, plus year 2 of Scott Satterfield, is able to overcome redemption seeking Cougars in year 1 of Willie Fritz. Cincinnati catching Houston this early in the schedule is less desirable for Houston. If this game were in November, then I’d lean Houston.

Saturday, Sept. 28th – Houston vs Iowa State

Winner: Iowa State

I originally liked Houston here because of a few reasons. First, the two teams did not play in 2023, and so Houston getting Iowa State at home while these two programs learn about each other is a major bonus. Second, I initially thought this would be one of those bump in the road games where the team you expect to win plays less than perfect, which is what happens every week in college football. Plus, I thought that Houston could win on another Hail Mary like they did against West Virginia last year.

But, then I saw the schedule, and I realized that this game coming that early means that Iowa State is healthier and more focused. And Houston is still discovering its identity. So, for these reasons, I’m concluding that Iowa State gets the victory.

Friday, Oct. 4th – Houston at TCU

Winner: TCU

This is an either Friday or Saturday game. Playing against a fellow state native, this is going to be one of the more intriguing matchups to me over the years. Two programs that sit on the bedrock of some immense recruiting talent. Programs that have had flashes of success. Oftentimes, both programs are overlooked. TCU and Texas Tech remain the most difficult teams for me to project next year. But, having said that, I expect TCU to be able to win this game at home.

Saturday, Oct. 12th – BYE Week

Houston gets its first bye after 6 weeks. That is a pretty good time to get a bye week. The stretch after this bye is going to be their toughest of the year, so they are going to need this week to get healthy and gear up.

Saturday, Oct. 19th – Houston at Kansas

Winner: Kansas

I’m bullish on Kansas being a legitimate contender to play in Arlington next year in the Big 12 title game. Therefore, I am picking Kansas to beat most teams. This is more about Kansas being really good next year rather than Houston being not as good. Playing at Kansas, on the road, won’t help. The weather this year was odd — or, perhaps for the natives of Lawrence it was quite normal. But, for opponents, it is unpredictable.

Beyond that, Kansas is also coming off of a bye week. Houston was amongst the better teams at defending the run last year. But Kansas was the amongst the best in the conference at running the ball. Between Jalon Daniels and Devin Neal, I think Kansas has too much to be beaten here.

Saturday, Oct. 26th – Houston vs Utah

Winner: Utah

Utah is going to be good in 2024. Yes, I observed quite the animosity between Utah fans and Big 12 fans during the summer and fall of 2023. And, yes, I do think that Utah fans were right in their assumption that they’ll be competitive in the Big 12. Houston allowed 27 sacks last year, which was 49th most in the country. Utah is tough defensively. If Big 12 fans don’t already know, they’ll soon hear the term, “Sack Lake City” because Utah does quite a bit of sacking of other quarterbacks.

Perhaps the more intriguing part of this game will be the red on red jerseys. The reds are different enough generally, particularly since the Utes incorporate some good amount of white and black into their uniforms. But, what if both teams go full red? That would be a tremendous watch.

Where Houston has the potential to pull of the victory here is that Utah is heading into a bye week the next week, and going to Houston will be a new environment. I still say Utah, but this is a potential upset game.

Saturday, Nov. 2nd – Houston vs Kansas State

Winner: Kansas State

While Kansas State has lost Will Howard and their OC, they are still a solid program. Their defense was one of the best in the Big 12 in 2023, and this is a program that should be among the best in the Big 12 going forward. Kansas State was second best in the conference in turnover margin (+10) while Houston was in the bottom four (-1). If Avery Johnson is struggling to pass the ball, then this game is much closer and again a potential upset for the Cougars. But, unless Houston corrects their turnover situation, this is likely a Wildcat victory.

Saturday, Nov. 9th – BYE Week

Houston gets a much deserved second bye at this point in the season. After a very difficult stretch, they still have another challenging stretch upcoming with 3 games left, 2 of which are on the road. Don’t expect Houston to be fighting for bowl eligibility throughout this stretch. Though, there is a chance that at the beginning of this stretch they’ll face a situation where they must win out to go to a bowl game.

Friday, Nov. 15th – Houston at Arizona

Winner: Arizona

Most people are really high on Arizona. After they beat Oklahoma in the Alamo bowl, I saw projections that Arizona would be among the 3 best teams in the Big 12. Some people even say Arizona is the best in the conference. We still have to get through transfer portal seasons, but they are going to be good. And, unfortunately, for Houston, this game looks ripe for Wildcat cats to beat the Cougar cats pretty good.

Brent Brennan will be in his first season, but luckily for the Wildcats in this cat fight he will be getting comfortable with his team by this point. Arizona will know what they are at this point, and that won’t bode well for Houston. Arizona also comes off of a bye week, so they’ll be rested and they won’t have to travel.

Saturday, Nov. 23rd – Houston vs Baylor

Winner: Baylor

Houston beat Baylor by 1 point last year. In fact, Houston was the only one of the 4 new Big 12 schools in 2023 that was able to beat 2 original Big 12 members. Yep. Houston beat West Virginia and Baylor. Those two victories were by a combined 3 points, but they beat them. UCF, Cincinnati, and BYU all beat up on each other (and Houston) to get the majority of their Big 12 victories.

Baylor is in a state of flux, yet they retain their head coach, and I don’t think they’ll be as bad as they were in 2023. Therefore, even with this game at TDECU Stadium, I like Baylor here.

Saturday, Nov. 30th – Houston at BYU

Winner: BYU

Houston plays every kind of Cougar, Wildcat, and bearCat (intentionally not upper cased) in the conference next year. It must be the Big 12 trying to do their version of the Commander-In-Chief series between the academies, but doing it Big 12 cat style.

To me, this game is about home field. Neither team played well on the road in 2023. Home field was generally a better place to play. Both teams are still adjusting to the Big 12. Roster talent is fairly equivalent. That leads me to give the edge to the team with the home field. Had this game been in Houston, I would give the red Cougars the W instead of the blue Cougars.

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