This is Part 8 of a 16-part series where I’m putting together my “Never Too Early Predictions” for each team in the 2024 Big 12 for the 2024 college football season. Here are the Iowa State Cyclones season predictions for 2024.
You can read the other parts in the series by clicking on the team below:
Arizona Wildcats | Arizona State Sun Devils | Baylor Bears | BYU Cougars | Cincinnati Bearcats | Colorado Buffaloes | Houston Cougars | Iowa State Cyclones | Kansas Jayhawks | Kansas State | Oklahoma State | TCU
These predictions are my “Never Too Early Predictions” because it is never too early to make a guess at something that you are likely to be partially right and partially wrong. This is before all recruiting and transfer portal changes are made. So, inherently, I’m bound to be right and wrong. But, season predictions are meant to be fun, and I think Iowa State is going to be good in 2024.
Matt Campbell enters his ninth season at the helm of the Iowa State Cyclones program. In his time in Ames, he is 53-48. On the surface, and to the outside observer, that 53-48 record appears mediocre. It is essentially .500, which is average, right? But, if you start to look deeper, and Iowa State fans will already be aware of this, then you see that Matt Campbell has the Cyclones’ program in a place it has never been before.
During Campbell’s tenure, the Cyclones finished with a winning record in 6 of his 9 seasons, they played in 6 bowl games, and they won a New Years’ 6 bowl game in the Fiesta Bowl. You have to go back to 1911-1919 to find a 9 season stretch in which the Cyclones finished with a winning record in 6 of 9 seasons. That was over 100 years ago! There might be a couple of people still alive who remember that, but not likely!
Furthermore, Iowa State has played in 18 bowl games in program history. Matt Campbell was on the sidelines as head coach in 6 of those games. So, he alone has accounted for one third of the programs’ bowl game appearances.
Why all of this program history? It is to give perspective to both the Iowa State fan and the non-Iowa State fan. There is a reason that Matt Campbell’s name continues to pop up occasionally in coaching searches. While the noise has dissipated slightly since the Fiesta Bowl season, it could quickly pick back up.
Think about this. Iowa State has had one of the best defenses in the Big 12 the past several seasons, so, regardless of who is coming back, Campbell and DC Jon Heacock have a recipe they’ve cooked up that the Big 12 largely hasn’t cracked. Rocco Becht’s freshman campaign was decent, and he has room to grow and will surely get an opportunity.
Iowa State’s roster may not scare you with stars, but they don’t have to in order to win. And, with Texas and Oklahoma gone, the Big 12 has a void at the top. The conference is waiting for a program to step up and become the top dog. Iowa State’s schedule is workable this year (though we’ll see more info once dates are announced).
There will be a couple of tough road games at Utah, Kansas, and West Virginia, but the home slate is favorable. Farmageddon comes to Ames, which should prove to be the toughest matchup. Will Iowa State continue trending upwards? Yes. I think so.
Predictions
More details are below, but for the headliner predictions, I have the following:
- Non-Conference schedule: 3-0
- Conference schedule: 6-3
- Overall record: 9-3
The State of the Iowa State Cyclones’ Program coming into the 2024 Season
Rocco Becht. This kid was good in 2023. Earning Big 12 Offensive Freshman of the Year, he was 31st in the country in total passing yards as a redshirt freshman. In his first full season, he gave Iowa State fans hope that they have a potential NFL quarterback on their roster.
Iowa State has two of the most important components needed for success in the Big 12: a quarterback and good defense. Their defense is actually great relative to the Big 12.
Cyclones fans know this. They want improvement on this past season and feel hope knowing that no 800 pound gorilla exists in the Big 12. Winning 7 games or less in 2024 would not indicate progression.
And, I think the Cyclones will do it. I’m currently predicting 9 wins, which may change the closer we get. If Rocco improves, and there is more consistency across the board, particularly offensively, then 8 wins is likely the floor.
Their road games are where I could see some of the ceiling raise. Utah is extremely difficult to beat at home. Kansas, in my opinion, will compete for the conference championship if healthy. Those games are losses, currently, in my book. But, their success rests on the health of quarterbacks who are coming back from injuries that were significant.
So I could see a world where the Cyclones get to 9 or 10 wins.
As a side note, I understand that there has been some frustration amongst fans that Matt Campbell and company don’t care about non-conference games. Well, Matt Campbell is 15-13 in non-conference games (including bowl games). That’s about as good as his overall record. I don’t think that’s the case.
Iowa State Cyclones 2024 Season Predictions
So, here we go. Now we know the dates of when the matchups actually fall, (thank you Big 12 schedule release). Iowa State plays the more favorable 5 home games and 4 road games schedule in 2024.
Saturday, Aug. 31st – Iowa State vs North Dakota Fighting Hawks
Winner: Iowa State
Iowa State should take care of business here. North Dakota of the Missouri Valley league, is coming off of a 7-5 record. This will be a good warm-up to the Iowa Corn Cy-Hawk Series the following week.
Saturday, Sept. 7th – Iowa State at Iowa Hawkeyes
Winner: Iowa State
The Hawkeyes won in 2023, though Iowa State won on the road in 2022. However, recent history has not been great for the Cyclones. Prior to winning in 2022, the Cyclones hadn’t won since 2014. From 1998 – 2002, the Cyclones won 5 straight, perhaps their greatest stretch against their Big 10 rival (are they considered siblings or cousins or neither?).
But, since 2003, the Cyclones have gone 6-14 with wins coming in 2005, 2007, 2011, 2012, 2014, and 2022. So, it has been a bit lopsided as of late. But, you might look at it slightly differently. Yes, the Hawkeyes have been winning for most of the past decade. But, from 1983 – 1997, Iowa won 15 straight, so, from that lens, Iowa State has made some progress.
All of this is to say, that Hawkeye fans are feeling bullish while Cyclone fans can’t stand their fellow Iowans. I have Iowa State here with the win as the Cyclones continue to reverse prior bad fortunes. Iowa is going to breaking in a new offensive coordinator after Brian Ferentz was let go. Breaking in a new offense is always challenging, and so catching the Hawkeyes in week 2 is very advantageous.
Add to that, Rocco Becht’s expected growth, and I think Iowa State has something going here.
Saturday, Sept. 14th – BYE Week
This bye comes way, way too early in my opinion. But, those are the cards that have been dealt to the Cyclones. The second bye breaks up 10 games right in the middle, so this team never plays more than 5 games in a row, fortunately.
Saturday, Sept. 21st – Iowa State vs Arkansas State Red Wolves
Winner: Iowa State
Well, I generally would say to stay away from wolves. Red wolves seems like a species that is one level more dangerous. Thankfully for Iowa State, that shouldn’t translate to the football field. Arkansas State, while improving in 2023 to 6-7 from a 3-9 record in 2022, won’t be able to handle this mid-September fight in Ames.
Saturday, Sept. 28th – Iowa State at Houston
Winner: Iowa State
Admittedly, when I first put this together, I had Iowa State losing this game. There is one game each year, for virtually every team in college football, where things don’t click. You lose a game that you really did not have any business losing. That was my projection for this game.
Remember when Houston beat West Virginia on a hail mary last year? I thought something like that would happen here. Except, Houston would call their miracle play a Hail Willie (ok, that was a willie, willie bad joke).
But, now that I have the schedule in front of me, I have to go with Iowa State. To open up Big 12 play, though on the road, they’ll get a Houston team that is adjusting to first year head coach Willie Fritz at the helm. I expect Houston to have fight, but this will be tough for Houston. They’ll have already played at Oklahoma and at Cincinnati the week before.
Saturday, Oct. 5th – Iowa State vs Baylor
Winner: Iowa State
I have Iowa State marching out to 5-0 after picking up a victory here against Baylor, which is recovering from a difficult 2023. Baylor will be searching for its offensive identity given a change in offensive coordinator and a new starting quarterback. A feisty Cyclone defense could make hay, or should I say corn, of that situation. Particularly if this game comes early. And, Baylor’s defense was lackluster as compared to previous years. Rocco Becht could also have a field day.
After this victory, Iowa State has a chance to be ranked in the high 20s, particularly if they do come through on beating an Iowa team that is likely to be ranked.
Saturday, Oct. 12th – Iowa State at West Virginia
Winner: West Virginia
Here is where I have Iowa State’s first loss coming. I went back and forth on this one. Both teams were expected to struggle last year and yet both teams exceeded expectations. Now, fans of both programs are pondering over whether they should include a trip to Arlington during the first weekend in December as part of their 2024 travel plans.
I give West Virginia the edge due to the home field. Plus, this is grit on grit. Iowa State has the better defense, West Virginia has the better overall offense. Iowa State has the better quarterback. What gives? – I go with the Mountaineers here.
If Iowa State pulls this game off, then I think they have a real shot at Arlington, and they could head into their November matchup against Kansas undefeated.
Saturday, Oct. 19th – Iowa State vs UCF
Winner: Iowa State
UCF is really exciting. And, well, Iowa State is a bit more…modest, should we say? That’s why this will be an intriguing game. UCF, like Cincy, ran the ball well in 2023. KJ Jefferson will bring an interesting dynamic to the Knights. For now though, they are still learning the ways of the Big 12. And, I expect the Cyclones to do just enough to win this game.
But UCF’s defense was lackluster last year. Which is why the team was exciting because there was lot’s of offense when they played. That bodes well for a Cyclones team that will be at home while UCF is continuing to adapt to the Big 12.
Saturday, Oct. 26th – BYE Week
While the first bye week comes way too early, this bye week is timed decently well. It breaks up their last 10 games evenly so that the Cyclones get 5 in front of this week followed by 5 in November. Furthermore, their next opponent, Texas Tech, will not be coming off of a bye.
Saturday, Nov. 2nd – Iowa State vs Texas Tech
Winner: Iowa State
Iowa State will have been home in Iowa since October 13th, with a bye week coming the week before this matchup. On the other hand, Texas Tech will have come off of a tough road matchup at TCU.
Texas Tech remains a question mark for me. Going on the road was an up and down experience for the Red Raiders in 2023. Defense was also a struggle, and if Iowa State can grow on offense, this could be a victory by a margin of multiple possessions.
Saturday, Nov. 9th – Iowa State at Kansas
Winner: Kansas
This is actually surprising to me. If you’re following, at this point of the projections, Iowa State would come into this game with a 7-1 record. That would involve being nationally ranked. I have high projections for Kansas, so I expect them to be nationally ranked. This could be a big week for the Big 12.
The big question mark with Kansas is the health of Jalon Daniels. With him, I am projecting that they will make it to the Big 12 title game. Without him, then you will see another 8-4 type of season (which for Kansas is actually incredible!). While Iowa State has a really good, grinding defense, Kansas also has a powerful offense. Even though they are replacing their offensive coordinator, I am bullish on their talent. And, Iowa State is not currently known for having an explosive offense. I like Kansas to get ahead and then put pressure on Iowa State to play an uncomfortable game and win by 7-10 points.
Saturday, Nov. 16th – Iowa State at Utah
Winner: Utah
Iowa State plays two of their toughest matchups back to back. In fact, November will shape up to be a challenging month for the Cyclones. Both of these teams are built defensively first and may be two of the more similar programs in the Big 12 from a philosophical standpoint. However, if Cam Rising is healthy, then Utah is my other team I am projecting to get to the Big 12 title game. Utah was a PAC-12 champion with him at quarterback, and I expect much of the same in 2024.
What Iowa State has going in their favor is that Utah will be coming off of an emotional game in the Holy War the week prior. I expect Utah to win that game, so they could hope for a let down from Utah. However, Kyle Whittingham is not likely to let that happen to his Utes.
Saturday, Nov. 23rd – Iowa State vs Cincinnati
Winner: Iowa State
Cincinnati fans won’t like my predictions for 2024. I’m high on their potential as a program over the next 5-7 years. But, 2024 will continue to be a challenge. Cincinnati’s strength was running the ball in 2023. Iowa State stops the run. With a new quarterback in tow, and a daunting task to run the ball, the Bearcats are going to struggle here.
Generally, I think this matchup has an opportunity to develop further into a regional rivalry. They are far apart, and Cincinnati is a much bigger city than Ames. Yet, both schools are in the category of trying to prove something and are cut from the cloth that breeds toughness more than pizazz and flash. That is a recipe for some good ole fashioned fighting on the field.
Saturday, Nov. 30th – Iowa State vs Kansas State
Winner: Iowa State
Farmageddon. I already spoke about Rocco Becht, but losing your guy in Will Howard like the Wildcats did will hurt. Many are high on Avery Johnson, but Iowa State was one of the best defenses at stopping the run. Avery Johnson likes to run, and he is still developing as a passer.
Rocco is further along in the passing department. In these types of rivalries, it helps to have a QB to make plays with his legs and arms. I’m not sure yet that Kansas State has that in Avery Johson. Playing this game in Ames also helps the Cyclones.
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