The odds are not in BYU’s favor as the Sooners of Oklahoma come flying into Provo this Saturday for an early morning kick off. BYU goes from playing most of their home games at 8pm over the past several years to suddenly a kickoff that is 10 hours earlier. Will the Cougars be awake? (side note, is a Cougar Tail a good idea at 10am in the morning?) But the biggest question on BYU fans’ minds will be, “Does BYU have a chance vs Oklahoma?” And, for Sooner fans, they will want to continue to regain their momentum that temporarily halted with losses at Kansas and then in Bedlam. 

Oklahoma has so much to play for. We see each week in the Big 12 another unexpected loss (e.g. Oklahoma State losing by 42 to UCF last week), so Oklahoma is still playing for Dallas. BYU is playing to regain its honor. As they sang in Mulan, Kalani is trying to make a man out of the BYU Cougars in their inaugural year in the Big 12. And, while they are certainly learning plenty of lessons in the process, it has looked closer to the team leaving the field with their cougar tails between their legs than looking like the fighting warriors of Mulan (think of the bad guy fighting warriors).

That is not to say that the players have not fought valiantly. Jay Hill, the defensive coordinator for the Cougars, told his players going into the 4th quarter that that was a critical time for them to earn his trust and show fight, despite being down by over 30 points. For the BYU Cougars, there is a longer tail story here as to why this Oklahoma game matters so much. It not only matters for bowl eligibility, but it also matters for BYU’s journey and acclimation into the Big 12.

Why is this game important to both teams?

BYU may not win this game, but they can win individual plays. Their players can continue to develop by playing extremely high level talent in Oklahoma. Even if BYU leaves the field in a defeat of over 30 points, they can still leave the field having learned precious lessons that will sow the seeds to be reaped over the coming seasons.

For the Sooners, it is a similar story. Oklahoma begins its sojourn into the SEC next season. With that comes a plethora of questions for them. While they bring a history of recruiting at a very high level and seem SEC ready from a 4-star and 5-star perspective, they will likely be breaking in a new quarterback (assuming Gabriel leaves for the NFL on the heels of two solid seasons at Oklahoma though Gabriel hasn’t yet made the decision), they will be learning the ways of a new league and familiarizing themselves with all sorts of new nemeses. 

Oklahoma and BYU are in good company. In fact, BYU could certainly share a few lessons with Oklahoma of what it is like to adjust to a new league, and perhaps, if Oklahoma is feeling charitable, they could pass on some tips and tricks for how to win in the Big 12, a feat that Oklahoma has done oh so well over the past 25 years. In fact, the Sooners leave the Big 12 with no unfinished business, having won the league championship 14 times since 2000, including 6 in a row from 2015 to 2020.

Now, if BYU wants to beat Oklahoma, then the path is going to be straightforward but incredibly hard to execute. And, the game plan will be similar to what you’ve heard elsewhere: (1) take care of the ball, (2) don’t put themselves into an early deficit, and (3) continue to improve offensively. Etc…But, as the game unfolds, here are a few other trends to watch.

I dug into some metrics and looked for key figures that help tell some of the story. Here are a few aspects of BYU vs Oklahoma to watch for:

1. The march to 400 yards
2. Explosive Passing Plays
3. Yard Differential

What to Watch For

One of the key battles will be the BYU pass defense vs the Oklahoma pass game. Dillon Gabriel has had a great season and BYU‘s pass defense has had an acceptable season given its first year in the Big 12. Generating 12 interceptions bodes well for the Cougars as they prepare for a strong passing attack.

So when you have a strength against strength (calling BYU’s pass defense a strength is a bit of a stretch…) then something has to give. BYU’s pass defense is 7th best in the Big 12, and is currently at 78th in the country. This is improvement over last season where they finished 85th. 

Oklahoma runs RPO out of the shotgun frequently. Gabriel has been a quick decision maker this year, and when you watch their film, you see that many of their big pass plays are extended by  yards after catch. He’s hitting his receivers on an inside crossing route or seam at about 10-15 yards out, and then they’re taking it 10, 20, 30 yards further. As they get closer to the goal line, Gabriel becomes a runner of the shotgun. Not a draw play, but a straight up take the snap and run it.

Can BYU get to 400 yards of total offense?

Under Brent Venables, Oklahoma is 3-8 when giving up 400+ yards of total offense, including 1-2 this year. BYU, on the other hand, has not reached 400 total yards of total offense in a single game. BYU vs Oklahoma is going to have to generate more offense and get above 400 yards. It’s either that or Oklahoma has butter fingers and can’t hold on to the ball.

Oklahoma’s rush defense has proven to be stronger than their pass defense. In only one game have the Sooners allowed over 200 yards rushing, which was against Kansas. But they have allowed over 100 yards in 8 of their 10 games this season. On the passing front, they’ve allowed 200 yards passing in 8 of their 10 games, and two times they allowed over 300 yards.

If BYU doesn’t hurt themselves via turnovers, and is able to piece together a run game, then I like the opportunity for their pass game to pick up. These are three big ifs, but they are possible. Under Kalani Sitake, the Cougars have been known for surprising bounceback games. In 2022, when BYU went 0-4 in October, they gained over 400 yards once and twice had less than 300 yards. Then, against Boise State, which came into the game with one of the best defenses in the country, the Cougars gashed the Broncos for 532 total yards. 

Granted, this year’s offensive team is very different than last year’s, but the point is that Kalani can guide this team to a win when all indications would point to a certain and utterly deflating loss.

Explosive Passing Plays

As Oklahoma and the its winds (or wins) come sweeping down the plains, they bring to Provo an explosive passing game. Dillon Gabriel ranks 17th in the country with 55 explosive passing plays (pass plays over 15 yards in this metric). He stands in really good company. (See chart 1). If you were wondering, Kedon Slovis ranks 58th in the country with 34 explosive passing plays after missing the past two games. 

By the way, Kedon’s 34 explosive pass plays is one more than he threw in 2022.

As far as passing defense, BYU has performed fairly well when it comes to not allowing explosive passing plays. They’ve allowed 37 explosive passing plays whilst Oklahoma has allowed 39. In other words, Oklahoma’s offense averages nearly 6 per game while BYU’s defense allows nearly 4 per game. If BYU holds Oklahoma to 3-4 explosive passing plays, then this means that their defense has found something and could be the difference between a touchdown.

Watch the Yard Differential

BYU comes into this game with the 5th worst (say it ain’t so!) yard differential in the country. They are outgained by 114 yards per game. Oklahoma comes riding their Sooner Schooner to Provo (do you think they’re taking that to Provo rather than plane?) with the 15th best yard differential in the country. They outgain their opponents by 128 yards per game. That is good for the best in the Big 12.

So, this game is either going to be a close match, which I’d tilt towards BYU given the home field advantage, or it is going to be cataclysmic and you better have something on your schedule starting about an hour after kick because you will not want to stay to watch till the bitter end.

BYU’s improving run game could be a difference in their getting to 400 yards as well as in shrinking the yard differential. The past two home games have seen BYU generate their best rushing games of the season. Against Texas Tech they rushed for 150 yards, and against Iowa State, one of the best defenses in the country, BYU had its best rushing game of the season. Sooner fans and Cougar fans alike should watch to see if the rush game of BYU vs the rush defense of Oklahoma gains any advantage.

Now, Cougar fans are understandably feeling pretty discouraged. But, the fact that BYU had its best running game of the season against a great defense is reason for hope! If BYU doesn’t gift Iowa State 10 points in the first couple minutes on two turnovers, then that game could have been wildly different given how BYU’s run game was functioning. 

A healthy running attack will allow a team to get into 3rd and manageable situations, and in a BYU vs Oklahoma matchup, the running game keeps Dillon Gabriel off of the field. One more data point for BYU fans to realize is that Iowa State’s worst rushing defensive effort came against BYU. So, there are positive signs out there.

My Prediction

This game is going to either get ugly quick or will be down to the 4th quarter. My prediction is that the game takes the shape of the former. BYU’s depth at all levels of the defense does not bode well for the Cougars, though Dillon Gabriel and Offensive Coordinator Jeff Lebby will be licking their chops to get after it. And, with an Oklahoma team that is tied for second in the country in the most turnovers forced a game (averaging over 2 per game) coming against a young and inexperienced Jake Retzlaff, assuming Kedon Slovis is not ready to go, the Sooners could force several turnovers early.

I am taking Oklahoma 49 and BYU 20. The only trip for the Sooners to Provo will end in their riding off with victory.

Data come from @cfbFastR (find on X)