This is Part 9 of a 16-part series where I’m putting together my “Never Too Early Predictions” for each team in the 2024 Big 12 for the 2024 college football season. Here are the Kansas Jayhawks season predictions for 2024.
You can read the other parts in the series by clicking on the team below:
Arizona Wildcats | Arizona State Sun Devils | Baylor Bears | BYU Cougars | Cincinnati Bearcats | Colorado Buffaloes | Houston Cougars | Iowa State Cyclones | Kansas Jayhawks | Kansas State | Oklahoma State | TCU
These predictions are my “Never Too Early Predictions”. This is before all recruiting, transfer portal, coaching changes, and schedule dates are announced. Will I be right? Definitely. Will I also be wrong? Most certainly. The Kansas Jayhawks have an exciting opportunity in front of them because of (1) their schedule, (2) what they have returning, and (3) their head coach Lance Leipold.
Currently, I believe that Kansas is going to compete for a spot in Arlington, and I have them as a favorite to play on December 7th in the Big 12 conference championship. I recognize that season predictions for 2024 are fraught and challenging to do, particularly this early in the calendar year. By August, some of my season predictions for 2024 will change, and that might apply here to the Jayhawks, but I’m still high on them.
You are going to see that I’m really high on Kansas. Am I blinded by the fact that I had a great time visiting Lawrence and taking in a game last year? Nah! Am I suffering from delirium because I enjoyed watching their fans “wave the wheat” after each score? (How about embracing your state culture!)? Maybe.
But, as I look at their schedule combined with who they have coming back, this team is set up for a potentially special run.
Let’s jump in!
Predictions
More details are below, but for the headliner predictions, I am predicting that Kansas will finish with a 11-1 record in 2024. The breakout is below:
- Non-Conference schedule: 3-0
- Conference schedule: 8-1
- Overall record: 11-1
The State of the Kansas Jayhawks’ Program coming into the 2024 Season
“Toto, I’ve a feeling we’re not in Kansas anymore.” – Dorothy, aka Judy Garland, to her faithful dog Toto.
This is the mantra we must all repeat when it comes to Kansas football. The COVID year was rock bottom (0-9 in Les Miles’ second and final season), though you could argue that the Jayhawks were already at rock bottom. 2021 in Lance Leipold’s first season wasn’t much better at 2-10. However, something changed in the program.
I don’t know if that change started in the spring and summer of 2021 when Leipold ran his team through the first spring and fall training camps. Or, did it start in mid-November 2021 when Kansas beat Texas by one point on the road, 57-56, to notch their second victory. The seeds were clearly planted at this point and the garden started to sprout in the summer of 2022.
By the start of 2022, this program was different – The Jayhawks won 5 straight games to begin the season. The Jayhawks hadn’t won 5 games in a season since 2009 under Mark Mangino. ESPN Gameday came to Lawrence for a matchup between two ranked teams, Kansas and TCU, that were unexpectedly ranked after 5 weeks into the 2022 season. Kansas fell 31-38 in that matchup and proceeded to lose 6 of the next 7 games as injury befell Jalon Daniels. But, the proof was there.
Kansas would go to a bowl game for the first time since 2008. 2023 came around and Kansas continued to excel – they finished the season with 9 wins, which hadn’t happened since 2007 when they went 12-1. Despite star quarterback Jalon Daniels playing in only 3 games, Kansas managed to win 6 games without him, proof that Kansas is not a one-trick pony fueled by one player.
The program that Lance Leipold is building has staying power. Kansas has been to bowl games in back to back years, which hadn’t happened since that Mark Mangino run. The most important action that AD Travis Goff can take is to ensure that Lance Leipold stays as head coach. Ensure that he has what he needs, and if he doesn’t, then find a way to get him what he needs.
By coaching at Kansas, Leipold surely does not have delusions of grandeur that he’ll have access to all of the same amenities of an Alabama or a Georgia. And yet, he is building something that has not existed in Lawrence, so there will need to be continued investment and growth that the school may not have provided previously. And, given the Jayhawks history in basketball, this should not be out of the realm of possibility.
That is not to say that he is building an Alabama or a Georgia. But, what he could build is a program that goes to a bowl game for a third year in a row, which has never happened in program history. And, he can do it. He showed in 2023 that he is not dependent on one player. Kansas had one of the best offensive systems that was able to plug in Jason Bean.
With Devin Neal’s return, I am really high on this offense. He was an incredible back last year with 1,280 yards rushing and nearly 1,500 yards from scrimmage and 17 touchdowns.
Why the history lesson? The point is that Leipold is doing something not done very often at Kansas, so the Big 12 needs to continue to be on watch. And, when you look at the schedule that the Jayhawks play in 2024, you can see why I am predicting good things for them. No Oklahoma State, no Utah, no Arizona. They get Iowa State and TCU at home. Perhaps the one bummer is that they only get 4 home games in conference as opposed to 5. This is one of the better schedules in the Big 12 to get to Arlington.
Health is my biggest concern, but if that is there, then these Kansas Jayhawks season predictions for 2024 could be true.
Kansas Jayhawks 2024 Season Predictions
So, here we go. Now we know the dates of when the matchups actually fall, (thank you Big 12 schedule release). Kansas plays the less favorable 4 home games and 5 road games schedule in 2024.
Saturday, Aug. 31st – Kansas vs Lindenwood Lions
Winner: Kansas
In case you are wondering, as I was, the Lindenwood Lions are located in a northeastern suburb of St. Louis. Now that we have location answered, we can address the game on the field. This should be no contest for Kansas. This is one of those games where you hope Kansas to win by a margin of ~50 points. The fact that I expect Kansas to win by that large of a margin shows how much improvement this program has seen in the past 3 years under Lance Leipold.
Saturday, Sept. 7th – Kansas at Illinois Fighting Illini
Winner: Kansas
Kansas should have more trouble typing Illinois Illini than beating them (with all of its “I”s and “l”s, which both look like the same thing but one is a capital “I” while the other is a lower case “L”…). Illinois is not a pushover, but Kansas has simply surpassed the punching bag stage. With all that Kansas has returning, I expect this second half of a home and home between these two to go Kansas’ way.
Saturday, Sept. 14th – Kansas vs UNLV Rebels
Winner: Kansas
Weird weather will likely be part of the day. UNLV is replacing their quarterback, Jayden Maiava, who is transferring to USC. Despite the good transfers that UNLV has coming in, I don’t like the set up for them to win this game. Familiarity matters in college football, and UNLV will have much less familiarity than Kansas.
But, this game will be closer than at initial glance. UNLV went 9-5 last season and played in the Mountain West Conference championship game. Perhaps, Barry Odom is building something at UNLV.
Saturday, Sept. 21st – Kansas at West Virginia
Winner: Kansas
Kansas beat the Mountaineers in Morgantown in 2022, which was the last time these two played. Prior to that victory, Kansas had not beat West Virginia since 2013. That was Kansas’ second victory of the year in 2022, their first Big 12 victory, and was an early marker that 2022 was going to be different. The biggest variable for me with Kansas is the health of their quarterback Jalon Daniels. Super backup Jason Bean is no longer around, so Kansas really needs to keep Daniels healthy.
Before I knew the timing of this game, I had West Virginia penciled in to win this game. But, now that I know that it is the first Big 12 game of Kansas’ season and the fourth game of the year, that plays into Kansas’ favor. The health should be good as I don’t expect the Jayhawks to be very bruised coming into this matchup.
Beyond that, I like Kansas to start 4-0 for the 3rd year in a row. That would be something!
Saturday, Sept. 28th – Kansas vs TCU
Winner: Kansas
This game could be fireworks. One of two outcomes. Either Kansas blasts TCU and wins by 3-4 touchdowns. Or, it is one of those 55-52 games where the offense is flowing and the defense never came to the game. TCU will be coming off of a road matchup against SMU, which means that they are simply traveling across town. The two road games in a row won’t matter as much, but, nonetheless, it is still two road games.
TCU had five losses in 2023 where they gave up over 400 yards, 3 losses where they gave up over 500 yards, and one loss where they gave up over 600 yards. TCU is going to need to correct their defense. If TCU surprises Kansas and gets this game, then you can know that TCU is going to be much improved over last year. But this being at home for Kansas and having so much coming back, I like Kansas here.
Saturday, Oct. 5th – Kansas at Arizona State
Winner: Kansas
Arizona State is where Kansas was about two offseasons ago when Kansas was coming off of a 2-10 season under first year coach Lance Leipold. Arizona State and Kenny Dillingham enter their second offseason after their first season (where they went 3-9) and are looking to rebuild. ASU’s biggest question mark is around the quarterback and if they can find stability there. Kansas, while injury prone, had stability from their quarterback position through this rebuild between Jalon Daniels and Jason Bean. That makes a difference.
Kansas will be traveling to Tempe, and it could be hot, though not as hot as an early September game. But, I don’t anticipate Arizona State to turn out a big crowd and present a ferocious environment (not yet, though they can certainly turn out when hot) to intimidate a Kansas team that could be the creamed corn of the Big 12 crop next year.
I expect Kansas’ offense to overwhelm Arizona State in the desert and for Kansas to head into its bye week with a 6-0 record and a national ranking.
Saturday, Oct. 12th – BYE Week
The bye comes at a great time here. They are halfway through their schedule, they get a home game the following week, and then they play Kansas State two weeks after that before their next bye in early November. Followed by Iowa State at home, the Jayhawks will not leave the state of Kansas between October 6th (day after Arizona State game) and November 15th when they likely travel to Provo, UT to play BYU on November 16th. That is awesome for the Jayhawks. The Big 12 was right when they said they prioritized geography.
Saturday, Oct. 19th – Kansas vs Houston
Winner: Kansas
Kansas beat Houston in 2022 when Houston was in its last season as an AAC school. That game was in Houston, so this is the return matchup in a way. The story here is likely similar to that of the Arizona State game though to a lesser degree. I expect Kansas offense to overwhelm a vulnerable Houston defense.
Kansas was a balanced offensive attack with almost a nearly 50/50 split in terms of rushing yards and passing yards per game. Houston was about ⅔ passing yardage while barely averaging over 100 yards rushing per game. Houston is going to need to be able to move the ball on the ground against an improving Jayhawk defense. That will help keep a potent Jayhawk offense off of the field longer. Furthermore, Kansas has its two star cornerbacks returning, Melo Dotson and Cobee Bryant, so Houston is going to have its hands full passing the ball.
Saturday, Oct. 26th – Kansas at Kansas State
Winner: Kansas
Kansas State was the winner on the road last year. This game was close last year, and it really hadn’t been close since 2018. Kansas has not beaten their in-state rivals since 2008, back when Mark Mangino was roaming the Saturday Sidelines. Wow, that is quite a long time ago. Talk about being hungry for a victory. Rivalry games are often subject to unexplained reasons for winning and losing. Players make unexpected plays, both good and bad.
I like the momentum that Kansas is building in their program generally. And, at this point, I have Kansas at 7-0 and nationally ranked, likely in the Top 15. There is quite a bit of momentum going their way. And yet, I think they are going to tumble somewhere. I’ve been on the fence with this game, back and forth.
To a degree, with these rivalry games, you throw everything out the window and go with your gut. Or, you go with your gut and you still get it wrong. My gut says Kansas State, but I’m going to go with the Rock Chalk Jayhawk here and get to 8-0.
Saturday, Nov. 2nd – BYE Week
This is both a good time for the bye week because it extends Kansas’ time in the state of Kansas and allows for a good long rest. And, it is also odd after only playing two games after their prior bye. Kansas will finish with four more games.
Saturday, Nov. 9th – Kansas vs Iowa State
Winner: Kansas
If this game were in Ames, perhaps I’d think differently. Iowa State will be coming off a battle with Texas Tech while Kansas is rested. I don’t think Kansas will come out rusty because they will have only played two games prior. I expect that they will be eager and chomping at the bit to get out and finish their schedule.
This is a matchup with some stylistic differences. Kansas outgained their opponents by 56 yards per game (which averages in the fact that they gave up tons of yards in their losses to Texas and Oklahoma State and Kansas State). Iowa State only outgained their opponents by about 9 yards per game. Iowa State had a gritty, tough defense. And they usually do. Kansas’ defense was improved and was one that created havoc, but they weren’t as stingy as Iowa State.
So, what wins out? Kansas’ superior offense and improving defense? Or, Iowa State’s superior defense and improving offense? If Kansas can wreak havoc on Rocco Becht, which not many teams did last year, then I like Kansas’s chances to win a close game here.
Saturday, Nov. 16th – Kansas at BYU
Winner: Kansas
Kansas opened Big 12 play last year against BYU, and BYU opened their first ever game in the Big 12 against Kansas. This game was in Lawrence last year, and BYU looked the part of a team that could pull an upset at halftime. However, the big stat from that day was 9 yards rushing for BYU all game. Had BYU figured out how to get closer to 100, then the day might have been different.
While BYU is trying to reload on the defensive front and upgrade where they can, this game is going to be a challenge. Jalon Daniels presents a challenge that is hard to overcome as a play breaks down. I think this game is closer than last year, but Kansas still wins as it still has a more potent offense and BYU is still trying to figure out how to improve at the line of scrimmage.
However, the timing of this game in the season, and the fact that this game will be at elevation in the late season means the weather could be tricky. Kalani Sitake and the Cougars have been good in rematch games recently (ask Baylor and Arkansas), and I expect the Cougars to be desperate and hungry for a win. They also may be playing with nothing to lose, which means they are going to be playing loose.
I still have this game going for Kansas in heartbreaking fashion for the Cougars, but this is a high possibility of an upset special that could thwart Kansas’ hopes for a CFP bid and might even threaten their spot in Arlington.
Saturday, Nov. 23rd – Kansas vs Colorado
Winner: Kansas
Well, if Colorado lives up to the hype that some people are putting on this team, then this game could be special. It is the week before rivalry week, which means it will get more eyeballs. It is a reunion matchup of old Big 12 foes. I don’t expect Colorado to be coming into this game with more than 6 or 7 wins, but their ceiling is that they could be coming in with 10 wins.
Imagine if both teams were at 10-0 or 9-1? This game could compete for ESPN College Gameday.
Ok, back to reality land. Kansas gashed people on the ground last year, and Colorado allowed everyone and anyone to go through their defensive line. While Colorado improved massively last year over 2022, they still have quite a bit of wall to climb to compete with a burgeoning Kansas team that is starting to find itself near the top of the conference elites.
If Colorado doesn’t fix their line of scrimmage issues, then this will be a blowout win for the Jayhawks. However, this has the potential to be much closer if the Buffaloes improve. Ultimately, Kansas’ ground game convinces me that they’ll punish the Buffaloes enough to win this game.
Saturday, Nov. 30th – Kansas at Baylor
Winner: Baylor
Ok, stay with me for a second as I explain why Baylor wins this game. College football is so unpredictable, which is one of its greatest qualities. There is going to be a game on this schedule that Kansas loses that they should not. That happens to nearly 100% of teams not named Georgia or Michigan the past few years.
So, will it be Baylor, TCU, or Houston that beats Kansas? I don’t know. But, this game sets up nicely for a Baylor victory. A few reasons why: (1) Kansas’ health could be in serious question at this point of the season, (2) Kansas could be playing with quite a bit of pressure to get to Arlington and even for a spot in the CFP, and (3) it is college football and there is going to be a surprise.
To boot, Kansas lost at Baylor two years ago as they played without Jalon Daniels. So, there is the factor that Baylor has had recent success in Waco against the Jayhawks.
Baylor was not as stout against the run last year as they were in the past two seasons under Dave Aranda. And, their offensive line was under quite a bit of duress. Kansas really gets their offense going from having a dynamic running game. So, if Baylor hasn’t course corrected its line, I like Daniels and crew to win this game. Beyond that, Baylor could be playing for its head coach’s job, so this game is going to have quite a bit of fuel on both sides. We’re going with the surprise victory here for the Baylor Bears.
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