This is Part 10 of a 16-part series where I’m putting together my “Never Too Early Predictions” for each team in the 2024 Big 12 for the 2024 college football season. Here are the Kansas State Wildcats season predictions for 2024.
You can read the other parts in the series by clicking on the team below:
Arizona Wildcats | Arizona State Sun Devils | Baylor Bears | BYU Cougars | Cincinnati Bearcats | Colorado Buffaloes | Houston Cougars | Iowa State Cyclones | Kansas Jayhawks | Kansas State | Oklahoma State | TCU
These predictions are my “Never Too Early Predictions” for the Kansas State Wildcats for 2024. These predictions come way before we know all the details, but that is ok because it is never really too early to make predictions! When you look at their schedule, you see a challenge through the first five games. Then the next three games are also difficult but hard to predict. The last 4 games are easier with the exception of Farmageddon. That means one of two outcomes.
Whether Kansas State wins or loses earlier on, the first outcome is that they’ll be beaten up and end up dropping 1-2 games later in the season that they would have won had the schedule layout been flipped. This is still an outcome that should lead to an 8-10 win season.
The second outcome is that they could really punch above their weight and get to 10+ wins. If they make it through the difficult first patch, then avoid the thorns in the middle, and survive Farmageddon, then they have an opportunity for a special season. I’m not expecting it to be as special as some in Manhattan, KS would like it to be. But, I’m high on the Wildcats program in general and do expect them to be competing at the top of the league year in and year out.
Predictions
More details are below, but for the headliner predictions, I am predicting that Kansas State will finish with a 9-3 record in 2024. The breakout is below:
- Non-Conference schedule: 3-0
- Conference schedule: 6-3
- Overall record: 9-3
The State of the Kansas State Wildcats’ Program coming into the 2024 Season
Kansas State enters 2024 as one of a few schools that seek the reign supreme in the new Big 12. With the departure of Texas and Oklahoma, the Big 12 no longer has a clear cut leader, and there are several schools who are going to seek to fill that void. Kansas State is among these schools. They’ll have competition from the likes of Oklahoma State and newcomer Utah.
Kansas State’s in-state neighbor, the Kansas Jayhawks, has not been good historically, yet they are building their own momentum over the last two years, and this year could be their opportunity to shine. The Jayhawks have a great coach, returning stars, and a very favorable schedule.
But these predictions are not about the Jayhawks. No, these 2024 season predictions are about the Wildcats. Under head coach Chris Klieman, Kansas State has been very successful. Entering his sixth season, he’s had season win totals of 8 (2 times), 9 (once) and 10 (in 2022 when K-State won the conference championship title game). Throw out the Covid year when they went 4-6, and you have a really good program.
In fact, over the past three years, Kansas State has averaged nine wins per season, which it had not done in more than a decade. That’s winning football in the Big 12. Only Oklahoma State and Utah have as many wins in the past three years.
As of this writing, the Wildcats have not been decimated by the transfer portal, though they did lose starting quarterback Will Howard. Having said that, Avery Johnson is garnering attention from many national prognosticators as they look at him as a player to watch. Many expect him to have a breakout season. In other words, he could get himself on the Heisman watchlist if he and his team play really well.
He’s still young, and I wouldn’t expect him to garner Heisman attention until 2025. However, Kansas State’s early slate sets up where they play Arizona and Oklahoma State within the first five weeks. If Kansas State were to win those games with Avery Johnson really propelling them, then we could see a world where he’s getting more national attention.
They play Colorado in their sixth game, and there is a world where Colorado is coming into that game undefeated in what would be a highly touted matchup. I’m not prognosticating that this is going to happen. But, I want to introduce the possibility of this set up occurring. Either way, Avery Johnson is going to be one of the most crucial pieces in the Wildcats’ 2024 season puzzle.
The quarterback position was an important position in the rush game in 2023. Between Will Howard and Avery Johnson, Kansas State had 16 rushing touchdowns. Contrast that to the 15 combined rushing touchdowns between DJ Giddens and Treshaun Ward (who also transferred out). In Conor Riley’s offense, watch for how Avery Johnson is utilized.
In the Pop Tart bowl against NC State, where Riley was elevated to interim coordinator, Johnson rushed for 7 times and gained 71 yards. Not bad at all! He also passed 31 times (completing 14 attempts). The accuracy is something you’d like to see improve. On the season, Johnson completed 56% of his passes (37 for 66).
Back to Riley for a moment – the benefit that Kansas State has here with his elevation to full-time offensive coordinator is that he has already been with the program coaching the offensive line for multiple seasons (since 2019). That bodes really well when it comes to someone who already understands what he has in talent and program resources.
Furthermore, Kansas State has averaged allowed less than 2 sacks per game for the past 5 years, which is something that only 9 FBS programs have done (thank you Riley Conor profile page). That says something about consistency and position excellence. His experience in the program is why I’m more confident that Kansas State will continue their winning ways.
Kansas State Wildcats 2024 Season Predictions
So, here we go. Now we know the dates of when the matchups actually fall, (thank you Big 12 schedule release). Kansas State plays the less favorable 4 home games and 5 road games schedule in 2024.
Saturday, Aug. 31st – Kansas State vs UT Martin Skyhawks
Winner: Kansas State
This one should not be too much of a problem for Kansas State. There’s not much to this one. But I would expect Kansas State to win this game by 3 to 5 touchdowns. UT Martin was 8-3 in 2023, 7-4 in 2022, and 10-3 in 2021 (going to the second round of the FCS playoffs).
One thing to watch for is Avery Johnson and his passing game. Additionally, look for how the offense flows, or doesn’t flow, under new coordinator Conor Riley. If the offense flows really well, then Kansas State is in pretty good hands. But if you see weaknesses already appearing at this point then have concern that these challenges will persist throughout the year.
Saturday, Sept. 7th – Kansas State at Tulane Green Wave
Winner: Kansas State
Tulane has to be in the competition for the best logo for their school. That green wave looks mean! Well, sort of mean. He looks kind of cute but kind of mean at the same time. It looks like a nice, angry cartoon. Anyways, with Willie Fritz gone and Jon Sumrall coming over from Troy, this is gonna be a hard time for Tulane to be playing Kansas State given the new coaching change.
What Tulane has working in their favor is that this is a home game and they only had 3 players, all on defense, follow Willie Fritz to Houston. Interestingly enough about Troy Sumrall, his team at Troy in 2023 was the 19th best rated team in terms of defensive success rate (36.6%). Defensive success rate essentially measures how well your defense is at keeping teams from staying on schedule to get a first down. For example, you allow less than 5 yards on first down and you allow less than 70% of the yards to go on 2nd down.
Now, Tulane ranked 47th with a 40.2% defensive success rate. That team at Tulane would have ranked 5th best in the Big 12, and the Troy team would have ranked 3rd best. This is to say that Tulane may be suited to compete defensively given their talent and the track record of their new head coach.
Having said that, I still expect Kansas State in this game, but I only expect it by 3 to 7 points. If Kansas State goes in and went skiing by 14-21 points than either Tulane is in for a rough season, or Kansas State is in for a really good season.
Friday, Sept. 13th – Kansas State vs Arizona
Winner: Kansas State
Interestingly enough, this game is not a conference game because the game was already on the books before Arizona made the jump to the Big 12. Kansas States will have their hands full with Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan. However, Arizona lost some of their ground game in Jonah Coleman, who followed Jedd Fisch to Washington. Arizona was really good last year and getting pressure on the quarterback. In fact, they were 35th in the country with 31 sacks.
Kansas State allowed 16 sacks last year and has averaged less than 2 sacks per game for the past 5 years. The battle at the line of scrimmage between the Arizona defense and the Kansas State offense will be one to watch.
As mentioned previously, Avery Johnson passed for a 56% completion rate in 2023, so will his offensive line give him enough time? And will the offense generate enough rushing attack through DJ Giddens and Avery Johnson himself? Kansas State had the 5th best rushing game in the Big 12 last year.
Or, will Arizona be able to continue to generate the defense of pressure in ‘24 like they did in ‘23? And, will Noah Fifita be too much for the Wildcat defense? Kansas State allowed 24 explosive passing plays in 2023 (plays over 15+ yards), which was about middle of the road in the country. So, not horrible, but not great. Exploitable enough for a good QB like Fifita.
Ultimately, I like Kansas State here because Arizona itself is going through coaching change and this game is in Manhattan.
Saturday, Sept. 21st – Kansas State at BYU
Winner: Kansas State
Kansas State is the better team here. So, they should get the victory. However, BYU is feisty at home. And this game is early enough in the season that they could cause problems for a Kansas State offense if it isn’t clicking on all cylinders. While BYU was really bad at generating pressure and sacks, they were decent in the turnover margin and still found a way to get turnovers. BYU generated 20 turnovers, which was good enough for 3rd in the Big 12. In Jay Hill’s defense, they figured out how to get turnovers.
However, their problem was that they gave the ball up 19 times. And, they don’t have a clear cut starter at the quarterback position. So, they may be entering this game with questions and headlines around who will or should start at that position.
BYU has too many questions to answer from the defense of line position and the quarterback position so I am taking Kansas State here.
Saturday, Sept. 28th – Kansas State vs Oklahoma State
Winner: Kansas State
This could go either way. Both teams feature solid rushing attacks. But, Kansas State featured the better defense in 2023. Ollie Gordon will be the one receiving the attention in the run game, but, of particular interest will be to watch if the Cowboys defense can stop DJ Giddens and Avery Johnson.
If you’re Kansas State, you like that Oklahoma State is coming off of a difficult stretch. The Cowboys must play the reigning FCS champions in South Dakota State, Arkansas, at Tulsa, and then home against Utah. Oklahoma State can’t start out the season sleeping. This plays into Kansas State’s favor as their schedule is not as rough to start (though still not an easy schedule).
Watch the turnover margin in this game. This is how a close game can tilt one way or the other. In 2023, Kansas State was a +10 (which was best in the new Big 12) while Oklahoma State was only a +1 (good for 7th best in the conference).
I like Kansas State here because of the rugged schedule that Oklahoma State has, the fact that I like Kansas State’s defense better, and I like them to exact revenge from a year ago when they lost 29-21.
Saturday, Oct. 5th – BYE Week
The bye here comes at a good time for the Wildcats. Generally, you’d like it after 5-6 games. In a year where you have two bye weeks, you’d prefer it closer to 4-5 games to space your schedule out. That’s about what they have in this case. Colorado, which is Kansas State’s next opponent, will also be on a bye week.
Saturday, Oct. 12th – Kansas State at Colorado
Winner: Colorado
I know, I know. This pick feels like it is part of the Colorado bandwagon. On paper, I think that this game should be going to Kansas State for many reasons. By defensive success rate, Colorado had the worst defense in the Big 12 (and nearly the country) in 2023 while Kansas State had the second best defense in the Big 12. Colorado allowed the second most amount of sacks in the country (56!) while Kansas State allowed nearly 4 times less (16 sacks).
Kansas State averaged almost 100 yards more per game on offense and has one of the best (potentially) quarterbacks in the conference. But, this game of college football is not always decided on paper. In fact, it is always decided on the field.
I am expecting Colorado to have another momentous start to the season like they did in 2023. Their schedule is not impossible, and there is a world where both teams are entering this game at 5-0. Boulder will be rocking either way because Colorado is reunited with a former Big 12 foe, and these two programs, as currently constituted, have a vastly different vibe.
Kansas State is solid, consistent, will let you know they’re here by the way they play on the field, but won’t yell it in your face after they beat you. Kansas State is one of the consistently underrated and overlooked quality programs in the country. Colorado, with Coach Prime, has become prime time television. They have swagger, fashion, and boy do they let you know.
I expect this to be a gritty matchup and will be a true test for Colorado if they’ve made significant improvements. Where I like Colorado here is that they have some incredible athletes, and if they made enough improvement at the line of scrimmage, combined with home field, then they have just enough to get the win.
Saturday, Oct. 19th – Kansas State at West Virginia
Winner: Kansas State
This game is one where I could easily see West Virginia winning. It is the type of game where Kansas State will come in as a favorite, but you are not surprised if West Virginia wins. West Virginia and Neal Brown are going to have the question coming into the season about their 2023 season. Was it real or was it an exception? As you look up and down West Virginia’s schedule, this is not an easy schedule. In fact, they have one of the tougher schedules in the Big 12.
Prior to this game, the Mountaineers play Penn State, at Pitt, Kansas, at Oklahoma State, Iowa State all before welcoming Kansas State to Morgantown. That is going to set up one of two situations for the Wildcats. The first scenario is that West Virginia is scarred, bruised, lacking in confidence and rhythm, and Neal Brown is either out the door or on the verge. This makes for a very vulnerable West Virginia team that would lay down quite easily.
The second scenario is that West Virginia is desperate for a win because of that tough schedule, and they don’t know when they are going to get it, plus their coach will have some pressure internally to win. The Mountaineers are going to be playing like their lives depend on it, and this is going to be a brawl of a game.
From a metric standpoint, West Virginia was similar to Kansas State in terms of total defense and total offense, yet they were generally behind. I like Kansas State here.
Saturday, Oct. 26th – Kansas State vs Kansas
Winner: Kansas
The argument for Kansas State here is that Jalon Daniels is a question mark regarding his ability to stay healthy. And, folks in Manhattan may feel that Avery Johnson is going to be every bit as good and even better than Jalon Daniels. In my opinion, when Jalon Daniels is healthy, he is the best playmaker and most dynamic player in the Big 12 right now. Doesn’t mean he is absolutely the best quarterback, but he is incredible.
Kansas is building momentum from a program standpoint behind Lance Leipold, and I’m not ready to say that Kansas State is going to continue to dominate this series because of what Leipold is doing. Both teams have running backs who can really play and run. Both teams have good play at the line of scrimmage.
In 2023, Kansas had a net rushing yards per carry of +1 vs Kansas State’s +0.4. What is net rushing yards? This is the yards per carry gained minus the yards per carry allowed. This speaks to the growing strength that Kansas is developing along the line of scrimmage, which is why I really like them to continue to grow. I have Kansas winning the Sunflower Showdown here going to Kansas in a revenge victory.
Saturday, Nov. 2nd – Kansas State at Houston
Winner: Kansas State
I know the Colorado and West Virginia games look like places where Kansas State could lose, and I have them losing one game. I know that Kansas is likely a toss-up, and I have the Wildcats losing there. But this Houston game is one that looks like Kansas State should handle well. And, I think this one could be a scare for the Wildcats.
Many people are really high on Willie Fritz, including in year 1 of his tenure at Houston. I am optimistic that he’ll get Houston to bowl games, but not in year 1. However, having said that, as I look at Kansas State’s schedule, this is where it softens slightly, but on the heels of a challenging stretch. Kansas State outranked Houston in most metrics, and even with Donovan Smith returning for Houston, the adjustment to the new coach and program direction is going to take some time to meld into victories.
I have Kansas State winning in a scare matchup here.
Saturday, Nov. 9th – BYE Week
Kansas State gets their final bye before finishing with three more games. You really like how the last three games set up, and this is a decent place to have the last bye of the year.
Saturday, Nov. 16th – Kansas State vs Arizona State
Winner: Kansas State
The biggest question for me about Arizona State is their quarterback situation. They had to play multiple guys last year. And, at this point of the season, they could be doing the same thing, so you wonder what their life will be like at that position. Beyond that, their defense needs to grow by leaps and bounds. So, playing against one of the best teams in the conference on the road is not going to go well in their favor.
Kansas State should win by multiple touchdowns here. Kansas State had the best turnover margin in 2023 (+10) whilst Arizona State had the worst turnover margin (-11). This could be a game where this bears its ugly head for the Sun Devils.
Saturday, Nov. 23rd – Kansas State vs Cincinnati
Winner: Kansas State
Cincinnati is going to be a challenging out for teams this year and is going to continue to be a tougher and tougher opponent. They ran the ball well in 2023, though that was about the only thing they really did well. They were middle of the pack in several defensive categories and point differentials. This is a program that is still adjusting to the Big 12 and is going to have to travel to Kansas State after playing a road game at Iowa State.
I like Kansas State to win by about 2 touchdowns here.
Saturday, Nov. 30th – Kansas State vs Iowa State
Winner: Iowa State
This game could go either way. From the Kansas State perspective, Avery Johnson could have already developed into a star at this point. Iowa State could have receded back to their 2022 performance. Kansas State has the easier schedule down the stretch, and this game is in Manhattan. Iowa State is a grinding team, but Kansas State is suited to be able to handle that style of play.
So, on one hand, you can see the case for Kansas State to win this game given it is at home and the potential within Avery Johnson. On the other hand, Iowa State will bring one of the Big 12’s best defenses and will also be showcasing their own star at quarterback in Rocco Becht. This game could be featuring the two best quarterbacks in the league at that point in 2024.
In rivalry games, you sometimes have to throw out the metrics and the logic and go with your gut. I know Iowa State beat Kansas State last year, so winning two in a row might not make sense. But, again, this is a rivalry and so you throw logic out.
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