This is Part 11 of a 16-part series where I’m putting together my “Never Too Early Predictions” for each team in the 2024 Big 12 for the 2024 college football season. Here are the Oklahoma State Cowboys season predictions for 2024.
You can read the other parts in the series by clicking on the team below:
Arizona Wildcats | Arizona State Sun Devils | Baylor Bears | BYU Cougars | Cincinnati Bearcats | Colorado Buffaloes | Houston Cougars | Iowa State Cyclones | Kansas Jayhawks | Kansas State | Oklahoma State | TCU
These predictions are my “Never Too Early Predictions” for the Oklahoma State Cowboys for 2024. They are bound to be partially right and partially wrong. Let’s dive in!
In 2024, the Cowboys have a schedule that could set themselves up to finish either 10-2 or closer to 6-6. I expect the Cowboys to get to a bowl game and continue their streak of 18 bowl games in a row and 21 out of 22 years with a bowl game appearance. This is in part because when you look up and down their schedule, you see they have home games against Arkansas, Utah, West Virginia, and Texas Tech. They play at Kansas State, at BYU and at Baylor, which are frisky, and at TCU and at Colorado, which either game could go either way.
All of these games are winnable for Oklahoma State, and yet, many of the games are certainly loseable. Oklahoma State certainly won’t want a repeat of South Alabama in 2024, but they do start out against South Dakota State. Perhaps most Cowboy fans have studied up on South Dakota State, but this is the FCS version of the Georgia Bulldogs.
While their mascot, the Jackrabbits, may not immediately strike fear in your hearts, perhaps the following will. They’ve won back to back FCS championships, they’ve won 29 straight games, and they nearly beat Iowa in Iowa City during the 2022 season. Oklahoma State’s schedule is set up in such a way that they really can’t sleep through any of it. It may not be the most grueling of the Big 12 schedules, yet they have a potential trap game nearly every week outside of the big matchups against Utah and Kansas State. Those will bring enough attention already.
By the way, did you know that Mike Gundy has been to a bowl game in 18 of his 19 years coaching at Oklahoma State? The only season in which he did not lead the Cowboys to a bowl game was in 2005, which was his first season as head coach in Stillwater.
As an aside, when I was a youth, I played as Oklahoma State in dynasty mode on NCAA 2001 or 2002. My two best friends growing up and I played for several years and turned the Cowboys into a Big 12 power, which they have subsequently become. So, perhaps you can credit us with the Cowboys turnaround…? Ok, not really, ha! But playing as a 400 lb defensive end in the stunning Boone Pickens Stadium helped me appreciate even greater the beauty of college football stadiums and their connections to college campuses.
I don’t expect Oklahoma State to return to Arlington, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they do. Some of the other contenders have easier roads to Arlington, which is a big driver in why I don’t have the Cowboys riding down south in early December. It would take some underperformance from other squads and over performance from Oklahoma State, and that is largely based on the schedules.
Predictions
More details are below, but for the headliner predictions, I am predicting that Oklahoma State will finish with a 9-3 record in 2024. The breakout is below:
- Non-Conference schedule: 3-0
- Conference schedule: 6-3
- Overall record: 9-3
The State of the Oklahoma State Cowboys’ Program coming into the 2024 Season
Oklahoma State comes into 2024 on the heels of an appearance at the Big 12 title game in Arlington despite underwhelming expectations at the beginning of that 2023 season. In a roller coaster type year where the team was down and then up and then down and then up, the Cowboys and Mike Gundy discovered their 2023 identity. It was, to a large extent, explained by Ollie Gordon.
Through the first three games of 2023, Gordon had 19 carries for 109 yards. That was a good yards per carry average of 5.7 yards. But, 19 carries is almost what he got in game 4 when the Cowboys offensive staff discovered what they had. In the week 4 loss against Iowa State when the Cowboys fell to 2-2, Gordon had 18 carries for 121 yards.
The Cowboys fell to a 2-2 record in surprising fashion. Many pundits expected the Pokes to drop significantly based on the ravaging transfer portal season they experienced. The team fizzled to a 7-6 finish in the 2022 season and swapped out their defensive coordinator after Jim Knowles left to the Ohio State Buckeyes. The record wasn’t so much of a surprise as was the manner in which they got there. Saying “South Alabama” is going to give many Cowboy fans involuntary seizures for the next few years.
But, then, like the emergence of Ollie Gordon, the Cowboys emerged and cruised to a 7-2 record which included a victory over hated in-state rival, the SEC-bound Oklahoma Sooners. The Cowboys then followed up that triumph with a “what just happened?” performance against UCF when they were walloped 45-3.
The Oklahoma State Season can be summarized in one game: the season ending matchup against the BYU Cougars. In that game, BYU surprisingly jumped out to a 24-6 halftime lead and looked like they were enroute to snapping their 4-game losing streak and make a bowl game in their inaugural Big 12 season. Then, the second half happened.
Oklahoma State came riding back as Ollie Gordon scored three touchdowns with the third coming with 53 seconds to play and put Oklahoma State up by 3. After BYU kicked a last second field goal to send the game into overtime, Ollie Gordon would score two more touchdowns as the Cowboys emerged victorious in 2 overtimes and started packing their bags and saddles for Arlington the following week.
So, how is the team going to fare in 2024? Like I said, I think they’ll go 9-3, but could teeter in either direction. They have key returners on the offense, and they didn’t have a storm of transfers that left the program this offseason. The coaching staff is relatively stable. This is a program that has a shot at Arlington in 2024.
Oklahoma State Cowboys 2024 Season Predictions
So, here we go. Now we know the dates of when the matchups actually fall, (thank you Big 12 schedule release). Oklahoma State plays the less favorable 4 home games and 5 road games schedule in 2024.
Saturday, Aug. 31st – Oklahoma State vs South Dakota State Jackrabbits
Winner: Oklahoma State
This game may not be a walk in the park for the Cowboys. The mighty Jackrabbits are back to back defending champions of the FCS ranks. I still expect Oklahoma State to win, but I don’t think this is the typical FBS vs FCS blowout.
What the Cowboys have in their favor to start this season vs last season is the knowledge that Ollie Gordon is the OSU Cowboy version of the Incredible Hulk.
He’s always got a chip on his shoulder, and the offense won’t starve him for carries to start the season like they did in 2023.
Saturday, Sept. 7th – Oklahoma State vs Arkansas Razorbacks
Winner: Oklahoma State
I waffled on this pick. Arkansas is changing their offensive coordinator to Bobby Petrino, which is interesting enough. Their former quarterback, KJ Jefferson, flew south to UCF for the winter (and next season). So they have questions.
Many people will assume the Hogs here because they have the SEC logo. Well, that’s partially fair. The SEC generally recruits at a much better level than other leagues.
However, until this team proves they can fix their offense, I’m not yet buying. I like that Oklahoma State is at home and knows who they are and what they do. They’ll have the edge at this point in the season.
Sat, Sept. 14th – Oklahoma State at Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Winner: Oklahoma State
I expect Oklahoma State to win this game here because again, I’m not expecting them to have the same early season mishaps like they did last year. Tulsa has not won double digit games since 2016. Last year they won four games under new head coach Kevin Wilson. The year before that they won five games under former coach Philip Montgomery. So this is not exactly a team that’s on the precipice of breaking through to immense success.
If you’re Oklahoma State, you’d prefer to have this game at home and play 3 non-conference games at home. However, I would prefer to play Arkansas at home rather than Tulsa if I’m Oklahoma State.
Saturday, Sept. 21st – Oklahoma State vs Utah
Winner: Utah
I went back-and-forth on this pick over and over and over again. This is the clear favorite for best Big 12 game of the week. It is also going to be one of the best Big 12 matchups during the season.
Under head coach, Kyle, Woodingham, Utah has proven that it’s really hard to beat them if you’re gonna try to outgrit them. Utah has struggled against teams that have a high dose of athleticism with enough grit to get by. But if you lean too much on the athleticism, they find a way to bottle you up, and if you lean too much on the grit, then you can’t keep up.
Lastly, this game is really challenging to pick because both sides are going to be learning about each other for the first time. And where I think Oklahoma State’s home field will give them an advantage, and could even spot them 3 to 7 points, I still like the talent that Utah has been a developing and the momentum that that program has. I expect the winner of this game to go to Arlington.
Saturday, Sept. 28th – Oklahoma State at Kansas State
Winner: Kansas State
I could be convinced either way for this game. But for now I have Kansas State. Both teams bring a good rushing attack. Kansas State was very favorable in the turnover margin last year. The biggest outstanding question on Kansas State is how Avery Johnson will do in his first full year at the home. Most people are pretty optimistic about that but only time will tell.
One of the stories at this point will be schedules. Kansas State will be coming off of playing Arizona at home and then BYU on the road. That schedule is not easy, but Oklahoma State has a more difficult schedule to this point. In college, those difficult schedules have a way of grinding teams down and eventually wearing them out.
Kansas State lost this game 29-21 last year and so I figure revenge will be playing a factor here. It’s really difficult to beat a team two years in a row. It’s even more difficult to do that on the road. If Avery Johnson figures things out, then I see Oklahoma State’s defense struggling to stop him.
Saturday, Oct. 5th – Oklahoma State vs West Virginia
Winner: Oklahoma State
This is the exact type of game that will be challenging for Oklahoma State. While I wouldn’t technically call it a trap game, it shares similarities. Oklahoma State is coming off of a challenging schedule and is one week before a bye playing at home. West Virginia does not have an easy schedule either at this point. Oklahoma State will have been playing against teams they are going to be amped up to play.
So, then come in the Mountaineers who could be bruised and battered given that they also have a difficult early schedule. If West Virginia is coming into this game at 1-3, they are going to be hungry for a win. That might be more trouble for Oklahoma State than if they were coming in at 2-2 or even 3-1.
West Virginia’s defense on paper was generally either as good or better than Oklahoma State’s defense. However, their offense was not as good. West Virginia’s quarterback, Garrett Greene, comes back as a known factor.
To me, West Virginia is intriguing because the Neal Brown effect last year had the Mountaineers playing like their lives depended on it. That was because Neal Brown’s job depended on it. Now he has a contract extension through 2027. I wouldn’t say that means he can comfortably go 0-12, but does it mean they stop playing with their hair on fire?
Saturday, Oct. 12th – BYE Week
This is a pretty reasonable place to have a bye. The Cowboys, along with five other schools, are the last to have their first bye. Some schools have their second bye only two weeks later.
At this point in the season, Oklahoma State will not be exhausted by travel. They’ll have traveled within state, about 1 hour away to Tulsa, and then traveled to Manhattan, Kansas, which is about a four hour drive, or probably that much in travel time if they fly into Kansas City and shuttle over.
Beyond that, they’ll have been staying home in Stillwater. The schedule is set up nicely up to this point in that context.
Friday, Oct. 18th – Oklahoma State at BYU
Winner: Oklahoma State
The reason I see this game being closer than further apart is because Kalani Sitake is pretty decent in the return matches. A good example was Arkansas last year.
BYU lost to Arkansas at home in 2022 when Arkansas gained over 600 yards of offense. The following year BYU went on the road in Fayetteville and came out with the victory. I’m still predicting Oklahoma State to win this game because I think Oklahoma State is better than Arkansas, who coincidentally they play this year. But I do think this will be tough.
I anticipate that this will be a Friday night, 8:15 PM local time kickoff (Oklahoma State fans, get ready for frequent 9:15pm kickoff times with five mountain time zone schools in the conference). BYU is really good at home after 8 PM. I don’t know if it has more to do with the opponents they’ve played or if they truly are something special after dark at home.
Regardless, while the crowd will be raucous, Ollie Gordon and Oklahoma State have an opportunity to conquer a questionable defensive line. BYU has to replace a chunk of their defensive line from last year, and they’re not yet at a Big 12 competition level in my estimation.
I see this one being a game where Ollie Gordon scores multiple touchdowns, gains 150 yards rushing, and Oklahoma State gets the victory.
Saturday, Oct. 26th – Oklahoma State at Baylor
Winner: Oklahoma State
I sense an opportunity for Baylor here, but ultimately Oklahoma State should be able to win this game. Baylor really struggled on the line of scrimmage last year, and if they are not able to improve significantly, then this game will go easily to the Cowboys. Baylor allowed 5 yards per carry in 2023…That’s not great.
But, if you’re Oklahoma State with Ollie Gordon in tow, then you LOVE that number! And, you’re hoping that it makes a return in 2024. Oklahoma State wasn’t miles better, though, as they allowed 4.6 yards per carry. But, they may not need to worry since Baylor averaged only 3.3 yards per carry in 2023.
This game should come down to who has the better dogs in the trenches, and I see that going Oklahoma State’s way this year.
Saturday, Nov. 2nd – Oklahoma State vs Arizona State
Winner: Oklahoma State
The rivalry continues! This isn’t so much a rivalry, but the two schools have played each other the past two years. Arizona State is still rebuilding, and statistically had the worst point differential in the new Big 12 last year. They still have quite a ways to go to improve. They have big questions at quarterback, and their defense wasn’t great.
Oklahoma State generated 24 sacks last year while Arizona State gave up 30. Arizona State also had a -75 yard differential last season. Oklahoma State didn’t blow the doors off statistically last year, but they were solid in the run game. Unless Arizona State improves their run defense dramatically and then shores up the holes in their offensive game and line, this will be a multiple score defeat for the Sun Devils.
Arizona State also had the largest point differential (-169) in 2023 of the new Big 12, so they have quite a bit of work to go to get to be really competitive. Traveling on the road to Stillwater is going to be too tall of a task for the Sun Devils to beat the Cowboys.
Saturday, Nov. 9th – Oklahoma State at TCU
Winner: TCU
This is one of those challenging picks because TCU has been an all over the place the past few seasons. They were 5-7 in 2021, and then 13-2 with a trip to the National Championship in 2022, and then back to 5-7 in 2023. I’m not sure who they are. But I do think they’ll be better than 5-7 this year.
TCU typically has talented and explosive athletes as they recruit from a talent rich area. And given that this game is on the road, and every team in college football usually has a slip up, this game is going to be a tricky one for the Cowboys.
TCU had a positive point differential (42 points) and positive yard differential (58 yards per game) in 2023, yet, they did have a negative turnover margin (-7). They generated 12 turnovers in 2023 contrasted to 19 in 2022. That is going to be a key to watch and see if they correct.
Saturday, Nov. 16th – BYE Week
Comes fairly late in the season. In fact, Oklahoma State and three other schools have their final bye this week. The rest of the conference is playing. At this point of the season, I do expect that Oklahoma State will still be in contention for the title match in Arlington. The other contenders could still lose a game or two, which would put the Cowboys in the driver seat. That might make this late season pit stop a perfectly time break.
Saturday, Nov. 23rd – Oklahoma State vs Texas Tech
Winner: Oklahoma State
In 2023, Texas Tech struggled to stop the run. That isn’t a good trait to bring to Stillwater. However, they were really good at running the ball. In fact, both teams were very good and neither team was great at defending the rush, so this game may be a matter of which line of scrimmage do you trust more.
Texas Tech endured numerous injuries last year, particularly at the quarterback spot. I wouldn’t be surprised if Texas Tech pulls out this victory if Behren Morton is able to stay healthy. If he stays healthy, then this would be game number 11 for him, and he didn’t have that nice of a flow during the 2023 season.
Texas Tech has been one of the best recruiting teams in the Big 12 over the past few years. We haven’t seen that translate to more than 8 victories in a regular season, so my outstanding question is if that talent will start pulling through to see more victories in 2024.
Until we do see those victories coming through, I’m reluctant to pick Texas Tech to win against the likes of the Cowboys.
Friday, Nov. 29th – Oklahoma State at Colorado
Winner: Oklahoma State
I think this is going to be one of the best games to watch in the Big 12 in 2024. I think it was a great move to put this game on Friday of Thanksgiving week in order to maximize viewers. You’ve got the Prime Time glitz and glam of Colorado versus the Gundy grit and grind of Oklahoma State. Funny to say that Colorado is glitz and glam because they were not that just two years ago!
Colorado was possibly one of the worst teams at the line scrimmage last year across the country. They allowed 56 sacks and averaged only 2.3 yards per carry. Now, they’ve overhauled their line scrimmage talent, but how cohesive will that unit be? And, is it more likely that some of the expected gains from that talent come in 2025 as opposed to 2024?
I expected Boulder to be really raucous and for Ollie Gordon to have the chip on the size of a boulder. There is a world in which Oklahoma State comes into this game at 11-1 or 10-2 and Ollie Gordon is having such a sensational year that there is some serious talk about his potential for being a Heisman candidate.
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