This is Part 12 of a 16-part series where I’m putting together my “Never Too Early Predictions” for each team in the 2024 Big 12 for the 2024 college football season. Here are the TCU Horned Frogs season predictions for 2024.
You can read the other parts in the series by clicking on the team below:
Arizona Wildcats | Arizona State Sun Devils | Baylor Bears | BYU Cougars | Cincinnati Bearcats | Colorado Buffaloes | Houston Cougars | Iowa State Cyclones | Kansas Jayhawks | Kansas State | Oklahoma State | TCU
These predictions are my “Never Too Early Predictions” for the TCU Horned Frogs for 2024. These predictions are sure to be part true and part false. Stay tuned to see what happens to be true!
TCU has a fun schedule this year. They play a challenging schedule, yet, one that could see them perform well, which is what you’ll see me reflect below. A few observations about their schedule are below:
- A chunk of their difficult matchups are in Fort Worth (Oklahoma State, Arizona, Texas Tech)
- Two of their road games are in state (SMU and Baylor)
- They get to find out if they are the conference’s kings of Texas because they play all other Big 12 teams located in Texas.
- Twice they head west (Stanford and Utah) and twice they head to the plains / midwest (Kansas and Cincinnati)
They won’t leave the state of Texas from October 20th (the day after they play Utah in Salt Lake City), until they play their last game at Cincinnati on November 30th. In fact, they play 3 home games, have 1 bye, and travel about ~2 hours south to Waco to play Baylor. That will be a stretch when they can really relax.
In fact, their season is bookended by their furthest travels. Stanford to start out and Cincinnati to finish. In between that, they’ll go to Kansas and to Utah. They’ll catch a bus over to Dallas, which might take a few hours because of traffic, but is doable, and the aforementioned Baylor game comes later.
This schedule sets up to be one in which TCU should not be exhausted from a travel standpoint. That is one reason why I’m optimistic about their prospects for improving and getting back into conference championship contention.
Predictions
More details are below, but for the headliner predictions, I am predicting that TCU will finish with a 8-4 record in 2024. The breakout is below:
- Non-Conference schedule: 2-1
- Conference schedule: 6-3
- Overall record: 8-4
The State of the TCU Horned Frogs’ Program coming into the 2024 Season
Many people have forgotten how good this team was in 2022. Set aside the wallooping that Georgia put on TCU (I think Georgia would have manhandled Michigan too, though not by quite as much). TCU had a great 2022 season, but who is this team?
5-7 in 2021 before Sonny Dykes. 13-2 and in the National Championship in year 1 of Sonny Dykes! Then 5-7 again in year 2 of Sonny Dykes in 2023. This is one of four teams in the Big 12 that I am really uncertain about because I could see this team failing to make a bowl game given their schedule (they play four of the better teams in the conference).
However, I could also see them starting to climb back up to the 8, 9, or 10 win territory. When I look at the offensive side of the ball, I have three questions:
- Will Josh Hoover be the guy and will he be able to improve?
- Who will replace Emani Bailey’s production in the backfield (1,200+ yards and 8 TDs)?
- Who will replace Jared Wiley’s production?
As for the first question, Josh Hoover played in 10 games and had a 15:9 TD to INT ratio, which isn’t great. That’s going to need to improve dramatically. Yet, TCU had a new offensive coordinator in Kendal Briles, so was there more adjustment that Briles needed to make for his team, or was Hoover simply flustered? He had a great game when he started against BYU, replacing an injured Chandler Morris.
Yet, at times later in the season, he looked lost or overwhelmed. Some of that could be youth and he’ll improve with time. But, only time and more game time will really be the answer to our question of whether or not he improved.
Ken Seals comes in as a 3-star transfer from Vanderbilt. He comes from the vaunted SEC, though the play of the Commodores is less than vaunted. He threw 179 passes, completing 58.7% of them, and had 11 TDs to 4 INTs. In total, he threw for 1,183 yards. Perhaps he has a fighting chance for the starting job, though I lean Hoover.
Emani Bailey rushed for over 1,200 yards in 2023 and declared for the NFL draft. I thought that had he been leaned on more in that Colorado game, then TCU might have come away from that game with a win. TCU’s had a few years now with some great run production. With as explosive as the passing offensive has been or has wanted to be the past few years, a highly productive running game is crucial to pair with it.
And as for Jared Wiley – he was a crucial, go-to type of player for Morris and Hoover. He led the team in receiving TDs, and was third in receiving yards, though not by much. Who is going to replace his critical production? Will 4-star transfer Braylon James (from Notre Dame) step in and produce?
Perhaps it will be Savion Williams, who returns and led the team in receiving yards in 2023. He only had 4 touchdowns, so increasing that production would be a boon for the Horned Frogs.
TCU needs to improve in the turnover margin this year. That is going to need to be an area of focus. You need look no further than the first game of last season against Colorado. The now-departed Chandler Morris threw two interceptions that were either in the endzone or at the footsteps of the endzone. That is back breaking because TCU misses out on 14 points, or a minimum of 6 points, in those two situations. And, wouldn’t you know, they lost the game by 3 points…so those 6-14 points were very impactful.
I am optimistic about TCU. I think they’ll overperform vs underperform this year. So let’s get to some specific TCU Horned Frogs season predictions for 2024!
TCU Horned Frogs 2024 Season Predictions
So, here we go. Now we know the dates of when the matchups actually fall, (thank you Big 12 schedule release). TCU plays the more favorable 5 home games and 4 road games schedule in 2024.
Friday, Aug. 30th – TCU at Stanford Cardinal
Winner: TCU
This is now a Big 12 vs ACC battle, even though this game will be played in California…which is the college football world we live in. A team on the Pacific Coast is ironically in a conference called the Atlantic Coast…But, I digress. Stanford wasn’t great last year. Until Stanford returns to their surprisingly quiet quality, I am going to assume they’ll be a below .500 team. TCU should win here.
Saturday, Sept. 7th – TCU vs LIU Sharks
Winner: TCU
The first thing we need to establish here is what LIU stands for. Long Island University. Given that we know that the LIU stands for Long Island University, we can now properly assess the mascot, which is the Shark. That Shark makes much more sense given Long Island’s proximity to the ocean.
The Sharks play in the Northeast Conference and play in the Bethpage Federal Credit Union in Brookville, New York. They play in front of 6,000 fans. I know that there are high schools near TCU that actually seat more than 6,000 fans.
The second thing that we’ll establish is that this game doesn’t require much analysis, all respect to the Sharks. TCU will win this game, and LIU should enjoy a nice payday.
Sat, Sept. 14th – TCU vs UCF
Winner: TCU
This should be one of the more exciting Big 12 openers. This is the first official conference matchup of the season in the Big 12. Utah hosts Baylor in Week 2, and Arizona travels to Kansas State during the same time as this UCF / TCU game, but neither of those two games count as one of the 9 conference games because they were scheduled prior to Utah’s and Arizona’s arrival to the Big 12.
UCF struggled on the road for most of their Big 12 schedule in 2023. With a new, but veteran quarterback in KJ Jefferson, will they be able to bring their dynamic offense on the road? Both teams were strong in the run game (offense and defense). UCF was better in the turnover margin by 6 more turnovers. This comes down to a question for me of how well does KJ Jefferson assimilate into Gus Malzahn’s offense. Will he already feel comfortable?
If he does, then this could be a difficult game for TCU, particularly if Josh Hoover hasn’t grown by leaps and bounds. I would expect this game to be a high scoring game, with both teams reaching the 30s to 40s. I wouldn’t be surprised to see UCF strike a surprise here.
However, I do believe that TCU will have enough offensive tools to overcome and defeat a UCF team that is still looking to upgrade their defense to a Big 12 level.
Saturday, Sept. 21st – TCU at SMU Mustangs
Winner: SMU
SMU gets two Big 12 teams at home in 2024. They play BYU in week 2 and then they’ll play TCU in week 4. This is not going to be a layup for TCU. In fact, this is actually a loss that I have slated for TCU. SMU will be coming off of a bye (their first of THREE byes), and I expect SMU to be 3-0 at this point.
Pop quiz: What was SMU’s record in 2023? SMU finished 11-3, #22 in the final AP poll, and won the AAC championship against Willie Fritz’s Tulane team.
SMU’s Preston Stone, who had a bonafide all-star season last year, returns to the saddle for another year to lead the Mustangs. He had a great year, throwing for 3,197 yards, 28 TDs, and only 6 TDs. The Mustangs have some momentum, coming off of a great year in the AAC and heading to the ACC. (Note, they must have made a decision at the board of regents level that says they can be in any conference as long as it has an “A” or a “C” in the title).
Despite the fact that I expect SMU to be bloodied and bruised by season’s end, they play TCU early enough to beat the Horned Frogs.
Saturday, Sept. 28th – TCU at Kansas
Winner: Kansas
Kansas should be fully healthy at this point of the season, and they have one of the best ground games in the conference. They also return some great defensive pieces. Jalon Daniels is possibly the best quarterback in the Big 12 if healthy. Devin Neal is also in the top 3 backs in the conference and should expect to have a run at the NFL in the 2025 draft.
Kansas is also loading up on the line of scrimmage. Their LOS metrics for 2023 were impressive. These are not the same Jayhawks in years past where you could automatically assume your team would win. Lance Leipold has these hawks flying high through the plains of Kansas and setting up to make a legitimate run at a Big 12 title game this year.
These two had an exciting battle two years ago in 2022 when ESPN’s College Gameday came to town. I don’t expect that here, but I do expect fireworks. While Kansas has great defensive pieces back, they still allow quite a bit of yardage and points. The key though is that their offense has been incredibly strong. And despite a change at the OC, I still anticipate their offense to flow smoothly.
I expect TCU to get pushed around a bit here. However, the way that TCU wins this game is (A) if they find out that they have a future star at quarterback, and (B) they find a dynamite playmaker or two who can pop for some big plays.
Friday, Oct. 4th – TCU vs Houston
Winner: TCU
Houston has a starter in Donovan Smith returning at quarterback, but the transfer portal did take one of their best receivers in Matthew Golden. Every team is expected to lose players in the portal. But when one of your top players goes to an in-state rival…
People are high on Willie Fritz. I generally am. But, not in year 1. While his past two years at Tulane were great, he didn’t exactly come storming in at Tulane. In other words, his trajectory was rather ho hum until he popped the past two years.
In fact, they went 2-12 in 2021, right before he flipped things around and won the Sugar Bowl, beating USC, and going 12-2 in 2022.
Why do I share those details? Given that he didn’t take the Green Wave on a rampage right out of the gate, AND the Houston Cougars are not even 1 year old yet on the Big 12, I believe he is going to need time to build up Houston into a contender.
Therefore, I expect this year to be a struggle for Houston. They’ll surely win some games. But, TCU is going to have too much talent and enough identity to win this game at home.
Saturday, Oct. 12th – BYE Week
TCU is part of a group of six schools in the conference that is last to have their first bye. Some schools have their second bye only two weeks later.
Saturday, Oct. 19th – TCU at Utah
Winner: Utah
This will be a rematch of former Mountain West Conference foes. Fans on both sides will surely remember the 2010 matchup when TCU went on the road against a Utah team that was ranked #6 in the polls (TCU was ranked #4) and put a Texas sized whallopping on the Utes. The Horned Frogs won 47-7 in a game that featured two unbeaten teams at the time.
TCU would go on to win the MWC conference (as Utah and BYU both would leave that the conference the next season). And then, the Horned Frogs defeated Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl. In fact, in the prior year, 2009, TCU beat a 16th ranked Utah at home, 55-28. Utah did beat TCU the year before, 13-10, when Utah was ranked #10 and TCU was ranked #11.
Since 2005, TCU is 3-3 against the Utes. Of note, during that 2008 – 2010 stretch, these teams were both ranked in at least the top 16 when playing each other. Twice, TCU was ranked 4th.
Now, I do expect Utah to be ranked in the Top 15, possibly the Top 10 at this point of the season. But, I don’t expect TCU to be ranked. They’ll need to 6-0 at this stretch of the season in order to be ranked.
When I compare those MWC battles to the new Big 12 battles, TCU is going to be playing a different Utah team. That 2008 Utah team was historically great, for the MWC, for the Utes, and was a really great team. The 2009 and 2010 versions were really good, but not nearly at the same level.
15 years later, the Utes have found themselves succeeding in and winning it all in a P5 conference. Their talent is even more upgraded. This matchup has the makings for a bit of a rivalry to start, or rekindle. The seeds were planted back in the late 2000’s, but conference realignment delayed the harvesting of those seeds. This might be that opportunity to further develop and then harvest.
Utah is going to be TCU’s match in talent on the defensive side of the ball. And, while Utah has not been known to put together the most formidable offenses, they have struck some gold with Cam Rising. Therefore, I expect Utah, with the power of the Rice-Eccles Stadium, to pull this game out, but expect it to be a grinder. But, that might not be defensive grinder completely. This could be a 42-45 type of matchup.
Saturday, Oct. 26th – TCU vs Texas Tech
Winner: TCU
Over the next two weeks, I have TCU beating Texas Tech and losing to Baylor. I won’t be shocked if it goes the other way or if TCU loses both.
The Red Raiders return Tahj Brooks and Behren Morton, so they are no doubt stronger at two key spots. And, Joey McGuire has them recruiting really well. But, there yet to see that translate to many wins.
TCU has been good on the ground, and Texas Tech was not great against the rush last year. So that could be an area of exploit, provided TCU finds a replacement for Bailey. At this point of the season, TCU should know what they have (or don’t have).
An observation I’ve made in other team predictions when speaking about Texas Tech is that they’ve struggled away from Lubbock (see Laramie, WY from 2023 for example). Their struggle gives me pause, which is why I believe TCU will win.
Winning on the road generally requires mental fortitude and consistency. Until I see it, I’m going to let them prove it.
Saturday, Nov. 2nd – TCU at Baylor
Winner: Baylor
Baylor has quite a bit to prove this year because of how bad they were in 2023. I’m a believer that Baylor is going to be better than they were because of the coaching changes that they’ve made and because Dave Aranda needs to make changes in order to keep his job. This isn’t gonna be a walk in the park for TCU. In this game in 2022, under completely different circumstances, it came down to a last second field goal.
TCU is not gonna be as good as they were in 2022, but I think Baylor might be about that same quality team. The point here is that Baylor is difficult to beat in Waco.
The line of scrimmage will be key here because Baylor was so horrible with the line of scrimmage in 2023. They were among conference leaders in lowest amount of rushing yards per carry per game. And defensively, Baylor’s defensive line also was porous. At this point in the season we will know if Baylor has improved back to their 2022 selves or if their athletic department is looking for a new head coach for the football program.
I believe that Baylor will make enough strides on their line of scrimmage that they’ll be able to succeed in this game. Adding to the intrigue of the BlueBonnet rivalry, TCU’s former head coach Gary Patterson was hired by Dave Aranda as an analyst.
It’s been a couple years since Patterson roamed the sidelines in Fort Worth, but he’ll still have some familiarity with many of the players in the program since he recruited a good chunk of them. Because this is a rivalry, it gives me reason to throw out logic and go with my gut. And my gut says Baylor gets this one.
Saturday, Nov. 9th – TCU vs Oklahoma State
Winner: TCU
TCU’s second half of their schedule is pretty difficult. They have to play at Utah and at Kansas, and then they have Oklahoma State and Arizona at home. I’ve already given my heads up on what I think is gonna happen with Utah and Kansas (loss in both games). And now I’ll walk you through what I expect will happen in the games against Oklahoma State and Arizona.
TCU has a bye inserted between Oklahoma State and Arizona, and I think they catch both teams at a good point of the season. And TCU will have been at home for quite a while and within the state of Texas through this stretch of the schedule. That bodes well for the Horned Frogs.
The obstacle that I see in TCU’s way of beating Oklahoma State is Ollie Gordon. Given that TCU was not horrible in the defense upfront against the run, I like their chances of slowing Gordon down. On the other side of the ball, Oklahoma State had a susceptible defense last year, giving up quite a bit of yardage.
So this becomes a game where TCU could manage to gain chunk yardage and find a way to put up points in a hurry and play from ahead. That would keep Ollie Gordon off the field or force Oklahoma State to throw the ball more than they’d like in order to catch up.
Oklahoma State did prove that they could come back from behind last year, but in general when you’re a team with a best player that is a running back, then you are generally at your best when you can run the ball. Therefore the logic stands that if TCU plays from ahead, they keep Ollie Gordon off the field and force Oklahoma State to have to throw the ball.
I like that TCU is at home and this continues the theme that I’m trying to stress here in these TCU season predictions for 2024. I expect TCU to have a bounce back to being competitive, which means they’ll win some, though not all, of these more difficult games.
Saturday, Nov. 16th – BYE Week
TCU has a fairly late second bye. Not many teams in the country have a bye with only two games remaining afterwards
The nicest part about this is that it falls in between two home games, thus extending the time that TCU gets to stay at home. This bye also breaks up Oklahoma State and Arizona, so it gives time for TCU to recover from what should be a dogfight against Oklahoma State, and then prepare for a matchup against the new foe in Arizona.
Saturday, Nov. 23rd – TCU vs Arizona
Winner: TCU
No, I haven’t been as high on Arizona as many others have. It’s not to say that I think Arizona is going to miss a bowl game, but rather, I don’t expect Arizona to win 10 games again. They have to learn how to play against 9 new teams in a conference where they are not familiar with the coaches, players, and general schemes. That is going to take quite a bit of transition and extra scouting effort.
So with that in mind, and bringing in first year head coach Brent Brennan to the program, my anticipation is that TCU catches Arizona at a good time. It’s towards the end of the season, the game is in Fort Worth, and the game is one week before Arizona plays Arizona State. I’ll give you that the last point may not be a huge factor because Arizona State is not a juggernaut right now, so Arizona may not be overlooking TCU to look ahead to Arizona State. But nonetheless, rivalries sometimes loom large in the minds of people and players.
One question for Arizona is if they can continue to have a run game when one of their lead backs from 2023, Jonah Coleman, transferred to Washington. A run game will help unlock the dynamic duo of Noah Fefita and Tetairoa McMillan. Speaking of which, TCU can’t allow those two to get big plays.
Arizona’s defense was solid last year so they didn’t blow the chains off of everyone. In other words, their defense was not as good as Kansas State’s or Iowa State’s, so TCU has an opportunity to put up some yardage and some points here.
Injuries always loom large this point of the season with two games left so that’s the one caveat here that could tip the scale in favor of one team or the other. If Josh Hoover does take the starting job, and if he stays healthy, and if he has success (three ifs at this point), then at this point in the season I actually like him to gain some confidence and to have a pretty big game.
I expect TCU to win this game and for the game to have scoring ranging in the high 30s to low 40s.
Saturday, Nov. 30th – TCU at Cincinnati
Winner: TCU
For TCU this is a pretty decent game to finish the season. They do have to travel a decent distance to get to Cincinnati, but the Bearcats are going to have another challenging year in the Big 12.
TCU should be able to handle defending Cincinnati’s offense. Cincinnati had a great run game, but they struggled in the red zone in 2023. Furthermore, they have big questions at quarterback. They’re bringing in a transfer from Indiana, Brendan Sorsby, who’s likely to be the starter, but there are questions about whether or not he can elevate that team.
TCU should be able to manage Cincinnati’s run, not completely stopping but not getting destroyed by it. What is going to be tricky at this point of the season for TCU is that they could get a Cincinnati team that is one win away from a bowl game and is fighting, clawing, and hungry for a win. Or, they could get a team that is out of gas.
But I like TCU’s odds to win this game to finish at 8-4.
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