The College Football Power 2: Which schools would be included?

We’re not officially in the era of the Power 2 conferences…yet. Are we going to get there? Only time will tell. To most fans, the march towards a College Football Power 2 level, consisting of 2 conferences, seems inevitable. The 2023 College Football Playoffs consisted of a current Big 10 team (Michigan), a future Big 10 team (Washington), a future SEC team (Texas), and a current SEC team (Alabama). The exclusion of Florida State, an undefeated Power 5 conference champion, left most wings of the college football house asking, “Are we already in a Power 2 situation?” So, the question that prompts this article: “If we do end up in a Power 2 level, which schools would be included?”

First, before we discuss the schools that would be included, let’s briefly remind ourselves how we got here.

For those following college football realignment, the college football house has undergone some significant renovations. We’re not talking about adding a simple coat of new paint. We’re talking about tearing down some walls, switching the bathroom with the master bedroom, flipping the kitchen with the main living room, and we tore up the deck and the pool and replaced it with…grass? (good-bye PAC 12…). 

In short, college football looks different now than it did a year ago. It looks different than when I grew up. And, it is going to look different when I’m dead (which is hopefully in a really, really, really distant future).

When did this march to a Power 2 begin? Who knows precisely when. You could say in the mid-90s when the Big 12 was created, which destroyed the SWC. Or, perhaps the early 2010s when the Big 12 lost a third of its members, or the Big East completely collapsed in football. Or, you could say 2021 when the road to the PAC-12 collapse started to get paved.

In the middle of July, 2021, as fall camps were a few weeks from beginning, it’s safe to say that the predominant question on the minds of college football fans was “How is my team going to do this year?” Realignment at the Power 5 level had not reared its ugly head since 2013. 

The college football house was seemingly calm. Friendly banter amongst rivals and dormmates was the regular talk. Though ESPN, Oklahoma, Texas, and Greg Sankey found an unoccupied room for their secretive talks (“Hey guys, anyone know what Texas & Oklahoma are talking about with ESPN and the SEC in the basement?”), most of the house focused on the upcoming on-field product.

However, by the end of July, the college football house was on fire. Seemingly, out of nowhere, news broke that Oklahoma and Texas were leaving the Big 12 and headed east to the SEC. Who let it slip? The public may never know that. But the conversations on fan boards and at office water coolers were buzzing with realignment angst. And, fast forward three years and these topics are almost everyday conversations.

Now, a complete retelling of realignment is not the subject here. Wiki actually does a good job there (see this example). This is to set the stage for the discussion of which schools would be included in a College Football Power 2 conference situation.

How do we define the College Football Power 2 situation?

There are a few definitions to align on here. We need to define the following:

• Exclusive access to the college football postseason
• Conference makeup

This helps you understand what I am, and what I am not, projecting. For today, let’s put basketball, academics, Olympic sports, etc…aside. There is a world where college football actually breaks away from the other sports completely. This isn’t just my conjecture. Josh Pate and Joel Klatt have spoken at length about this, both together and on their own shows. 

So, for a baseline foundation, let’s assume that football is left to align in whatever conference or league structure it pleases as its own separate entity.

For instance, you’ll see Florida State, Clemson, and Miami all part of the College Football Power 2 structure below. They could be in that structure in football and then remain in the ACC in basketball (yes, I know the ACC’s future is bleak). Or, if Stanford makes the cut, then it can place the rest of its powerful athletic department wherever it deems necessary.

I’m trying to look closer to 10 years in the future rather than 2-3 years in the future. As of right now, conferences are still factoring in academics, markets, and possibly basketball into the equation when expanding. But in the future will that still be the case?

Or, will the companies that hold the broadcast rights (most likely legacy media companies ESPN, FOX, NBC, CBS, though streamers such as Amazon, Apple+, and Netflix among others could make a play at buying rights) look for the best TV matchup, regardless of geographic location, market size, or athletic department success?

Branding and matchup potential (measured by the number of eyeballs executives think they can get) are what I project will be the main criteria for access to the Power 2. This, of course, is if we even do get to a Power 2.

Exclusive access to the college football postseason

In 2024, the playoff picture is expanding. Currently, 6 spots are locked for an automatic qualifier bid to the conference champions of the P4 schools, the highest ranked G5 conference champion, and the defunct PAC-12. You’re reading that saying, “What? The PAC-12 doesn’t have a spot because it doesn’t exist.” And, you’re right.

Rumblings suggest it could be a 5+7 model where there are only 5 conference champion spots. But, that is even up for debate. Until we see what is under contract, we do not know what to expect.

The P2 could gain exclusive access to the playoff via 1 of 3 routes:

Route #1: Automatic qualifier bids are eliminated and the P2 consumes all or virtually all the spots on a yearly basis. This would be essentially a P2 playoff.

Route #2: The P2 breaks off completely and officially starts their own playoff, with the backing of one or several broadcast partners. The P2 would then essentially tell the rest of the college football world, “Do whatever you want, but whatever champion you crown won’t really be the true champion.” Public opinion would side with P2.

Route #3: The Big 10 and the SEC decide to hold their own conference tournaments, a la basketball style, and their champions play each other for the “national title”.

For the purpose of this article, we will assume Route #2 is what happens. Route #1 would currently constitute the least amount of conference realignment change (maybe). Route #3 would likely assume little change to the Big 10 and SEC, but it certainly could be that the Big 10 and SEC remain intact as conferences but trade out some of their lower profile schools for higher profile schools in the ACC.

In reality, we could go with any of the Routes described, or any other non-described but plausible routes, and effectively say that the P2 finds its way into existence and that the teams I am suggesting would be in would find themselves a way there. 

Conference Makeup

I do not know if a College Football Power 2 would stay as two “super conferences” comprised of the B1G and the SEC. There could be a merger of the two that creates a ~40 team league comprised of two divisions. Or, it could simply be the ~40 “best” or “most desirable” schools that band together like brothers and become an exclusive club.

For the sake of this article, we won’t get specific on number of schools, and we won’t be prescriptive on the makeup of the conference. There could be another discussion for another article that dives into the variations that could occur. The key point here is that there are a set of schools, probably in the 30 to 40 range, that would have security card access to the P2 club.

I’m trying to look closer to 10 years in the future rather than 2-3 years in the future. As of right now, conferences are still factoring in academics, markets, and possibly basketball into the equation when expanding. But in the future will that still be the case?

Which schools would be included in the College Football Power 2 level?

This is the juicy part of this article, and where the fireworks are likely to start as fans see that their school is in a different tier than where they believe the school would be. Trust me, this isn’t perfect, but it makes some logical sense. And, I promise, if I ever was asked by ESPN, Bill Hancock, Greg Sankey, or any future college football czar or overlord, I would actually vouch for a system that is more inclusive than exclusive. Do I want to see a national title game matchup between Troy and Western Michigan? Probably not, but, I would like to give them a shot to make it.

So, regarding which schools would be in and which would be out – I have grouped the schools into tiers to give a sense of where each school fits into the picture. You will see 6 tiers with their status of whether they would be “In” or “Out” or even “On the Bubble”.

The tiers are as follows:

Following are the list of the teams that I am grouping inside each tier. Remember, this is simply my prediction if we even get to a P2. But, this is not destiny. From the table above, you’ll note that Tiers 1-3 are safely in the P2 while Tiers 4 & 5 are on the bubble. Tier 6 is out as of now.

Tier #1 – College Football’s Foundation 

The following teams make up Tier #1:

• Alabama
• Georgia
• LSU
• Michigan
• Notre Dame
• Ohio State
• Oklahoma
• Texas
• USC

By definition, Tier #1 must be elite, foundational, and college football would not be the same without these programs. Removing these teams from the equation would be similar to the NBA playing without the Lakers or Celtics and the NFL playing without the Cowboys, Packers, or 49ers. 

Between these teams, they have won 49 national championships since 1946 (split titles only counted once even if split across several of these teams). If you add in the split national championships, that 49 grows even higher to 56. If you were wondering how many seasons we’ve had since 1946 (I’ll do the math for you), it is 79 seasons. 

So, in 49 out of 79 seasons, or 62% of the time, one of these teams is going to win the national championship. That means 6 out of 10 seasons, or more often than every other season. It’s about 2 out of every 3 seasons. They are among the elite. 

These are the teams that are almost always ranked higher when they have an identical record to another team not in this tier. When you see an 11-1 Notre Dame team and an 11-1 Missouri or Iowa or Wisconsin team, 99 out of 100 times the Notre Dame team will be ranked higher. 

These programs have mastered branding in the college football space. Their winning on the field has certainly given reason to brand themselves as the elite. And, they’ve had help from large alumni bases, the AP Polls, the BCS and College Football Playoff systems, and, of course, from media partners. Even though Georgia never played Michigan or Ohio State this year, their beating them in the past two years in the playoff helped cement that they should be #1 this year during the regular season (even if Michigan was better).

Now, there might be a few teams that you are thinking should be in there. Any Florida State fan reading this is thinking, “What?! Everyone is out to get us!” Penn State fans are thinking, “Hey! We have 2 national championships!” And Washington is thinking, “We were just in the national title game and we have a title up our sleeve.” 

Miami fans and Nebraska fans are saying, “All these young kids these days have no idea how much we dominated the 80s, 90s, and early 2000s! We should be there too!”

By definition, elite cannot be a large number. So this list cannot be large. And, while I am considering history, I am also trying to look through the lens of the power brokers. What a team is doing right now is certainly of significance. 

Nebraska has not been relevant on the field since the late 2000s. Florida State finally became relevant again this year after disappearing for nearly a decade. And Miami hasn’t been truly relevant since their dominant run in the early 2000s (which, by the way, was one of the most dominant stretches I’ve ever witnessed, perhaps even more dominant than Georgia’s recent run).

Teams not in this tier are not necessarily out of the P2 structure. You’ll see below that Penn State, Nebraska, Miami, Florida State, etc…are all going to be in a College Football Power 2. So, teams arguing that they should be in this tier will still be in. These are the teams that, when ranked #1 or #2, are the teams that draw the most attention.

Branding and matchup potential (measured by the number of eyeballs executives think they can get) are what I project will be the main criteria for access to the Power 2. This, of course, is if we even do get to a Power 2.

Tier #2 – Second String

The following teams make up Tier #2:

• Auburn
• Clemson
• Florida
• Florida State
• Oregon
• Miami
• Nebraska
• Penn State
• Tennessee
• Washington
• Wisconsin

These teams have the capacity to be in the national championship. In fact, almost all of these teams have a national title on their trophy shelves. On a given season, or even over the course of several years, these schools can be dominant. Yet, if they have a 12-0 record and a team in Tier #1 has a 12-0 record, the team from Tier #1 is almost always going to be ranked higher (see → Florida State from 2023…).

I like these schools! They are appealing and fun to follow. Oregon is a team I could see winning a national title in the next 3 years. Several of these schools are currently floundering, so certainly my summary will have detractors. But, that is ok. These schools should be included. Miami and Nebraska in particular. When I was growing up, these two schools were dominant. Multi-season domination type of dominant.

And, yet, these schools seem to play second fiddle, at times, to their conference bigger brothers. Penn State perpetually struggles to get past Ohio State and Michigan. Florida, despite some stretches under Steve Spurrier and Urban Meyer, has struggled to get past Georgia and Alabama. 

Clemson is one of the most curious teams on this list. Had this list been created 4 years ago, Clemson would have been really hard to leave out of Tier #1. Clemson was literally on top of college football 5 years ago. Playing in 4 national title games in 5 years, the Tigers and Dabo Swinney proved they could not only compete with Emperor Nick Saban and the evil Alabama empire, but he could beat them. 

And, then, we know that over the past few years that Clemson has slipped. So, if you zoom in to the late 2010s, then Clemson was Tier #1 caliber. But, as you start to zoom out, and given that the power brokers will have some recency bias, Clemson belongs to Tier #2.

Of these teams, Florida State, and, surprisingly, Oregon, are the most likely to make the jump to Tier #1 if we were to fast forward 20 years. That would require some strong stretches of playoff appearances and a national title or two from both. Miami and Nebraska are two schools that I’d love to see return to center stage, in part because of the nostalgic effect.

And, Miami is simply a different team than many others when they are good. They have a swagger that is uniquely Miami. Because they can get some of the best athletes to come to their own backyard, Miami is among the best of the best ever when they are at their best.

Nebraska is a program that is also unique when they are great. Located in the somewhat isolated fields of the corn husking temples, they are plastered in a very loud Red, or should I say, Big Red. Their uniforms remain resolutely traditional, and though they no longer run the triple option, I simply want to see them be good again. But, for now, they are in Tier #2, which is based largely on their history and potential high ceiling, and less about what they have done recently, which is not many of anything.

Tier #3 – Along for the Ride

The following teams make up Tier #3:

• Arkansas
• Iowa
• Michigan State
• Mississippi State
• Missouri
• Ole Miss
• South Carolina
• Texas A&M
• UCLA

Along for the ride means what you think it means. They would feel confident that they would be in the P2, but they would be like the little kids at Thanksgiving who eat at the little kids’ table. They are not decision makers, but they have strong enough brands to put them in. They are along for the ride.

This tier is made up of teams that occasionally make noise in their current conference. Of the group, Iowa may be the most consistent performer in terms of win-loss record. Iowa’s big branding problem is that they routinely win games by a score of 7-3, which does not make for great TV. But most of these schools are little brothers to another school in their state or to a couple of schools in their conference. 

Texas A&M is an intriguing program on this list because they have a reputation amongst most of the media for having program resources. And, clearly, they have great access to some of the nation’s best recruiting right in their backyard. And, they are even in the vaunted SEC. Yet, they haven’t played in a conference championship since 1998 (they won the Big 12 that year). What they are really good at right now is paying a fat buy-out to a previous coach.

6 of these 9 teams currently reside in the SEC. Ole Miss is setting up to have a nice three year run here since 2022, and in 2024 they could be a dark horse contender for college football’s own version of the Final Four. 

UCLA is a team that pops every now and again. You would think that they would have more success given their proximity to talent. Yet, the school has always been more decidedly basketball. I think the move to the Big 10 is going to make things more difficult for a time for that school.

These teams are important in the P2 structure because they are great candidates to generate an upset by knocking off an undefeated Tier #1 or Tier #2 team, thus putting a wrench in the season plans for the elite. And, they make for fun to watch matchups.

Tier #4 – Don’t Forget Me, but Don’t Focus on Me

The following teams make up Tier #4:

• Illinois
• Indiana
• Kentucky
• Maryland
• Minnesota
• Northwestern
• Purdue
• Rutgers
• Vanderbilt

These schools are currently in the two most powerful conferences, the SEC and Big 10. In fact, 7 of the 9 reside in the Big 10. But, despite their current fortunate seats at these conferences, they certainly haven’t done much to contribute to the prestige of their leagues, unless being a punching bag is contributing to the cause.

And, certainly, the athletic directors at these schools must have some awareness of this factor. They do not want the P2 structure to forget them (“We’ve been a faithful doormat for over 3 decades! We promise to continue to deliver on that service!”), but they do not want any prolonged focus. Uncomfortable questions such as, “How much value does Rutgers truly bring us in a future P2 structure?” are ones these programs want to quiet and avoid as much as possible.

These are the schools that fans have been starting to look around at and ask, “Wait a second. If I see that my school (say Florida State or Clemson or Kansas State or Oklahoma State, for instance) that has made it into a NY6 bowl recently is only making $~35M per year, and one of these cellar dwellers are making double that, then what are we doing here?!”

Now, to be fair, not all of these schools are currently cellar dwellers. But, they have all spent material amounts of time there. In fact, several of these schools run the cellar.

If I was an athletic director at one of these schools, I would proactively position my school to remain in the P2 structure. 

You don’t want to unnecessarily plant a seed in the head of the Ohio States and Michigans of the world that they might be better off without you. But, you also don’t want to think you have a seat at the table and then find out that you’re out of luck, with no chairs available, once the music stops.

On one hand, these schools do not provide the networks much value because they are not drawing many eyeballs (one example was Northwestern vs Howard in week 6 of the 2023 season – 71K estimated viewers). They are frequently relegated to the SEC Network and the Big Ten Network. In Power 2 world where TV execs can pit Ohio State against Oregon, Penn State, Washington, and Michigan in 4 weeks, why would you throw in Rutgers vs Northwestern?

On the other hand, the value these schools do provide is a victory for the big boys. Because the big boys like Ohio State, Michigan, Alabama, and Georgia, etc…are able to beat up on these teams, the big boys are more likely to be 8-0 when playing each other rather than coming into their matchups at 5-3. If you remove these schools, then you have blue blood beating up on blue blood. Suddenly, the Red River Rivalry is two 2-3 teams going up against each other each year rather than 5-0 teams.

So, as an athletic director, I would focus my conversations on that value of being a victory for the big boys. And, I would strive to play up the emotions side of it all. Guilt trips and everything. Ok, not really guilt trips, because that is manipulation. But, you have to point to other things. Administrative relationships. Academics. Something. Anything but football. 

You would have to start preparing the school administration for the contingency plan of reduced future revenues. They would need to know that the revenue could take a hit. As almost a certainty, they would need to know that continued bad performance on the field would be a high probability. 

If a College Football Power 2 does consolidate down to 24-32 teams as I’ve heard people suggest, that means these Tier #4 teams are gone. Then you have goliath playing on goliath every week. That sounds awesome the first year. Maybe even the second or third seasons. But, then the once rare matchup becomes an every year event. You lose the scarcity that drives so much unspoken and unacknowledged value to the occasions when you do get big matchups with epic outcomes like Alabama and Texas in 2022 and 2023.

What happens if Texas, Oklahoma, Penn State, Oregon, or Wisconsin are .500 teams each year? What happens if Auburn, Iowa, Tennessee, or Michigan State become your cellar dwellers, your new Vandys if you will? Is that what college football really wants to see?

This is another subject for another day, but in short, I believe that executives are overestimating the value of scarcity + high win to loss ratio records in college football. Because TV money is ultimately driving this ship, will Ohio State vs Michigan draw 19M viewers every year if they are both 7-4 coming into that game vs 11-0?

So, my case here is actually one of inclusion. It is not a given that these Tier #5 teams are in, but nor are they certainly out.

As an aside, we heard over the summer of 2023 that the ACC had members who were dissatisfied with the equal sharing revenue model, and consequently, they moved to a success based revenue sharing model. While the ACC is the current conference experiencing tumult over revenue sharing, we recently witnessed the PAC-12 collapse, in part, because of some difficulties in coming to an agreement over revenue.

The Big 10 is the next conference that will experience some tumult over revenue sharing, in my opinion. As stated at the beginning of this section, the Big 10 has arguably 7 schools that are not carrying water. Managing a conference with 18 schools has not be done before. Is it a sustainable long-term model? There have been 16-team conferences in the past (WAC) that eventually broke up (into the MWC). While those programs were of a lesser competition level, it does serve as a good example that keeping 18 schools happy will be a challenge.

Tier #5 – Draft Night Risers

The following teams make up Tier #5:

• BYU
• Kansas State
• North Carolina
• Oklahoma State
• Stanford
• Utah
• Virginia
• Virginia Tech

Tier #5 is the hardest tier to determine. You could make a case for almost any school in Tier #6, and my response would be, “Yes, I see your point, and you might be right.” Currently these schools are not in, though a couple could be rumored. There are a handful of pathways that could lead to some of these schools being included, but each pathway does not equally benefit each of these schools. (Also, if you haven’t noted, the order is in alphabetical and not most likely).

The first pathway is to take schools who are currently rumored to be on the radar of the Big 10 and the SEC. North Carolina and Virginia have been linked to moving together and could go to the first bidder between the Big 10 or SEC. That would essentially get them into the room if they were added to either of those conferences. Their addition is more about finding schools that are academically aligned along with desirable tv viewing markets. 

Another pathway is brand and on-field performance. Kansas State and Oklahoma State could be included because of their brands (albeit not heavyweights) and on-field performance. Oklahoma State, with the investment they’ve had over the past 20 years, has elevated to a brand that can compete with bigger boys on a periodic basis. Kansas State, while not as significantly invested, has shown that they found ways to be competitive on the field. 

Both schools have had tremendous success on the field, and winning creates branding. So these schools would effectively make for desirable TV matchups and would be hard to leave out, particularly for those fans who are pure college football fans.

A third pathway is one that favors Stanford and Virginia Tech – their addition is more about the potential of the program and what they’ve done in the long-distance past. On field performance certainly isn’t doing it as of late. However, these schools have had periods of definite success that show they could have value, and do have some vestiges of proud brands from days gone by.

Stanford has shown that they can compete at an extremely high level, even with higher academic standards. Virginia Tech was once a national power, so their addition is similar to Miami’s or Nebraska’s inclusion. It is more about what they could become and less about what they currently are.

BYU and Utah are interesting cases and constitute a fourth and fifth pathway. Utah could make the jump because they have been a borderline Top 10 school the past 3-4 years. Many Utah fans believe they are in the Big 12 as a holding place until the Big 10 comes calling. 

I don’t subscribe to that theory, but I do believe that Utah would have a really strong case to be part of the P2 because recent success will be very beneficial in the eyes of TV executives. 

BYU has a case from the standpoint that they have a national following. While independent, they had enough TV and brand value that ESPN cut a separate deal with them to broadcast their games. And reports suggested that BYU brought ~$4M to the Big 12’s current TV deal, which is more than the per team average in that deal. 

As I said earlier, each team here and in the tier below could make a case that I could probably get behind. So, go ahead and let me know what your case would be!

Tier #6 – Outside Looking In

• All Group of 5 Teams
• Arizona
• Arizona State
• Baylor
• Boston College
• Cal
• Cincinnati
• Colorado
• Duke
• Georgia Tech
• Houston
• Iowa State
• Kansas
• Louisville
• North Carolina State
• Oregon State
• Pitt
• SMU
• Syracuse
• TCU
• Texas Tech
• UCF
• Wake Forest
• Washington State
• West Virginia

This tier is currently on the outside looking in, and would continue to be on the outside looking in. There are so many schools that have the potential to become elite programs. I’m actually high on Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF. Schools like Kansas are seeing their best success recently, and Texas Tech is a sleeper. TCU just went to the national championship a year ago, and Georgia Tech has a national championship in its pocket. 

What about SMU? They have resources, and many of us know about the history of the Pony Excess. They could pull together a formidable program, particularly given that they’ll be getting an increase in money after joining the ACC. I could go on, but, suffice it to say that this tier has the potential to be facing a lower championship model.

This is so tricky, but remember, I’m trying to assume we start shifting to football only in this focus. So, basketball would become less relevant in the college football power 2 structure. That is why North Carolina, Kentucky, Kansas, Arizona, etc…are not all squarely and firmly within the power 2 structure. If the powers that be really gave a hoot and a holler about basketball, then North Carolina, Duke, Kansas, and Arizona would be within the power 2 already.

I have not yet seen a model proposed that I can get behind, but I want every school, including these schools to have a shot at a national title. Perhaps that does mean that we create three broad tiers, which would put the P2 into one league, some combination of the current Big 12 and ACC schools into a second league, and then the Group of 5 into a third league, and each league has its own title plus a system of relegation and advancement between leagues?

Regardless of what I have proposed and what happens, I hope that the powers that be think about what is best for the game as a whole and remember who their consumer is. It is vitally important that a few individuals do not go for the pot of gold right now at the detriment of the long-term health of the sport. You cannot cut off entire sections of the country and expect to be healthy in the long-run.

I hope that schools like Oregon State and Washington State find their way back to better footing and that we have fewer schools like that that get the cold shoulder and are kicked to the curb. I hope we get more schools like BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, SMU, and UCF who recently joined the current P4 structure. 

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