Much of the fan sentiment this week among Cougar Nation has centered around the offensive line, the running backs, and the overall health of the run game. Suffice it to say, very few fans think BYU is going to run hog wild through the Razorbacks’ defense. Mired in the mud of the trenches, fans and media seem to be convinced that BYU must improve the ground game in order to come out of Fayetteville with more than “I’ve toured Walmart headquarters” stickers. But let’s take a step back. What if BYU beats Arkansas this weekend?
Let’s think about the broader impact on the season if BYU beats Arkansas. About ~90% of the BYU fan base inwardly expects BYU to win the game, but outwardly will state that they don’t expect BYU to win. So, if BYU does lose, then most of the fans will be up in arms about how bad the team is. As an aside, if expectations actually aligned with realities and hopes, then fans would be simultaneously less invested and less heartbroken when their teams lose.
Beating Arkansas would:
- Greatly increase the likelihood that BYU will make a bowl game
- Increase confidence that BYU can be competitive in the Big 12
- Have broader implications on how far the defense and Kedon Slovis can take the team this year.
By the way, the Locked on Razorbacks podcast did a great job of detailing the implications of an Arkansas loss from the Razorbacks’ perspective. It is a good listen and suggests there is some urgency for the hogs this weekend.
Increased likelihood of making a bowl game
Most projections prior to the season had BYU winning between five and seven wins. Most people predicted closer to five wins. BYU was picked to finish 11th in the Big 12. Now it’s possible that BYU beats Arkansas and then still finish 11th but it’s not likely. Like most SEC teams, Arkansas has a big, gnarly front line on both sides of the ball, has good depth at all positions, and is difficult to beat at home. BYU will have to play out of their pigskins to beat those hogs.
Beating Arkansas makes getting to a bowl game much more likely. BYU has 2 wins already. If we assume they win half of their home conference games (most likely losing to Cincinnati or Texas Tech and Oklahoma), then with an Arkansas win in tow they would only need to win one of the five conference road games. That challenge becomes much easier than needing to win two conference road games.
Increased confidence about being competitive
As it relates to competing in the Big 12, the confidence gained from going into SEC country and coming out victorious would surely increase confidence amongst the players and the coaches. This game has the makings of completely tilting a season in a different direction. I don’t think a loss makes much of a difference, but a win makes a world of difference. Think about what a win versus Oregon last year would have done for the BYU team. In my opinion, the players lost confidence in themselves. Yes, there were schematic problems that contributed to the 4 game skid, but watching that tape and seeing how the players didn’t make plays that they made earlier and later in the year tells me that there was a problem mentally as much as there was physically or schematically.
I digress.
What if BYU were to roll in to Lawrence 3-0? What if they came away with a victory in their first Big 12 game? And then they come home and beat Cincinnati. After the much needed bye week, they go down to Fort Worth. Let’s suppose Kedon and the Cougs put on a similar offensive show as Colorado did against a suspect TCU defense. Is it out of the question that TCU could lose to BYU?
Returning home, let’s suppose BYU is riding high and beats an up and down Texas Tech team, and then heads to Texas for what would be a showdown of a team in the top three against a BYU team that would be ranked in the top 15. BYU is not likely to win that game, so now BYU has one loss on the season, but then they go grab the next two games against West Virginia (who would be searching for a new coach at that point) and Iowa State, setting up a showdown against the two Oklahoma teams.
BYU’s depth at this point takes a toll and loses both of those games, but now they are 9-3 and going to a really good bowl game.
This isn’t a projection of what’s actually going to happen, but the theory is that beating Arkansas gets you confidence points that you ride for quite a while this season. And, BYU puts itself in the conference championship chase, at least for as long as their frontlines stay healthy. But, there is a world where BYU goes on a run. We did not expect it in 2021 and we got it. We expected it in 2022 and did not get it. Is 2023 like 2021?
The implications of Kedon Slovis and the defense
And speaking of Kedon, if BYU beats Arkansas, this is done through Keaton having a great day and through good defense. BYU‘s rushing offense hasn’t proved yet that it’s going to bring a lot to the table. That story is unlikely to change against Arkansas front 7. Look for the run game to break out against Kansas the following week.
What you’d see is Keaton picking his spots, and throwing for a modest 200+ yards and 2-3 touchdowns while doing so efficiently. Before you think that Arkansas can take away both the run game and the pass game, remember that Sam Houston State has a good defense now after two weeks of evidence. And Southern Utah loaded the box regularly.
BYU is good enough that if Arkansas, or any other team, drops eight, then they will get the run game going. Look for Kedon and Isaac Rex to form a Max Hall – Dennis Pitta like connection. And expect this to continue throughout the season if BYU is to have success in the passing game. Texas, Cincinnati, and Iowa State are looking like the best defenses that BYU is going to face in conference play. That leaves six other teams for Kedon to work his magic.
As it relates to the defense, reflect on the number 16. Now, the last time that BYU’s defense allowed 16 points or less over the course of two straight games was in 2020 when it opened the season against Navy and Troy and allowed a combined 10 points.
Has the competition this year been as good as it was in 2021 or 2022? Has it been as good as it will be the rest of the way? No. But, remember that last year BYU gave up 26 points to Utah Tech. Much of the front seven and safeties are the same as last year. The main difference is in the scheme. I may be proven wrong, but I trust this defense to get even better and to be among the best in the Big 12 during year one, and that would mean that the defense should keep BYU close against Arkansas, and should keep the games close in the Big 12.
How could the defense help in a win over Arkansas?
By playing contain on KJ Jefferson and forcing him to become one dimensional. He is so effective in the passing game in large part because of his ability to run the ball out of RPOs, designed runs, and broken play scrambles. Even if BYU loses, I expect BYU to do a much better job of containing him, and I am expecting BYU to get that sack against him on third down that they missed last year.
What if BYU beats Arkansas? The chances are low, and I am expecting Arkansas, a team that I enjoy rooting for, to win. But, if the Cougars pull it out in Fayetteville, the Cougars are going to go all the way back to Provo with a new call: “Wooh Coug Sooie!!”
No disrespect to Arkansas and the pig sooie that will be called all night long.
