Texas put a good ole fashioned Texas sized whoopin on BYU last Saturday. Well, it felt that way for BYU fans with the lack of getting into the endzone, the punt return for a touchdown, and the turnovers. And Texas left knowing it can win with Malik Murphy, largely because of the team surrounding Murphy. Both BYU and Texas fans can be encouraged by the performance from both teams as they go forward through the rest of this season. I’ll speak to the Texas fans first, who have every right this year to be optimistic about their CFP chances, and then do my best to bring solace to the BYU fans who feel frustrated and embarrassed.
Texas, you have a good team
After watching chunks of Texas games this season, I got my first look at a full game of Texas. And, boy are they good. I knew about the talent at wide receiver, which was on display. I knew that Jonathan Brooks was good (tied for 5th in the country in rushing yards). I heard about Malik Murphy’s spring game highlights and rocket arm. And I knew the history of the past two times that BYU played Texas (I was at the game in 2013). But this was a different story. Texas, here is what I saw this past week and why you can be optimistic going forward:
- Texas is truly talented at the skill positions
- Texas dominates the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball
- Get past Kansas State and you have a clear shot for the CFP
Texas has great talent at the skill positions
I remember watching Xavier Worthy in his first Red River Rivalry game in 2021 make a name for himself with 9 receptions for 261 yards and 2 touchdowns. Plus, Adonai Mitchell, former national champion and Georgia Bulldog, came over at the wideout position in the offseason. And Jonathan Brooks is one of the best running backs in the country. You could stop there and say that most teams wished they had that talent.
Texas is 20th in the country with 46 explosive passing plays (plays more than 15+ yards).
IMAGE OF TEXAS EXPLOSIVE PASSING PLAYS
They’re on pace to finish with 70 plays by the end of the regular season. To be great, you have to have great talent at the skill positions. That’s one of several boxes you have to check. And Texas has checked that this year. If you ever played NCAA Gamebreaker in 1997, then you know what a Gamebreaker was. In a game where Nebraska was dominant and you could only choose between Nebraska and Florida, you knew to choose Nebraska because they had Tommie Frazier who was a bonafide gamebreaker. Well, I would call Xavier Worthy a bonafide gamebreaker.
He put pressure immediately on BYU the second time he touched the ball by taking a punt return 74 yards for a touchdown. Yikes. It felt like that kind of day for both fanbases. Jubilation and exasperation.
Texas is dominating the line of scrimmage
Texas is the 10th best team in the country when it comes to rushing yards allowed attributed to the defensive line. When a rush goes for only a couple of yards, those yards are typically attributed to have been allowed by the defensive line by not plugging the gaps. However, when a rush goes longer, say 5 or 10 yards, then those yards are attributed less to a defensive line and fall more to the linebackers and secondary for not stopping the run after 3 or 5 yards.
This show of dominance was on display against BYU as Texas allowed only 95 yards rushing. That dominance also put Kedon Slovis under constant pressure all game and created multiple turnovers. He never looked comfortable all game. I know that some Texas fans wanted to see that pressure translate to sacks, but turnovers are generally better than sacks.
Texas gained over 200 yards rushing if you remove an 18 yard loss from Murphy. Against Kansas State, Texas is going to face one of the best performing defensive fronts and will need their line to create the kind of push they enjoyed on Saturday.
Texas is also best in the Big 12 in total rush yards allowed and rush yards per carry (3.2 per carry) – (see graphs below).
(Texas currently leads the conference in rushing yards allowed, followed by Kansas State. BYU sits at 9th, which is better than where they would have ranked in 2022, which is 12th).
Texas and Kansas State are heading for a strength on strength type of game. Which brings me to Texas’ future.
Get past Kansas State and Texas has a clear shot at the CFP
If Texas can get past Kansas State, which is a challenge regardless of who is playing QB for Texas, then Texas has a clear path to the CFP. Their road isn’t necessarily easy, playing against TCU, @ Iowa State, and then home against Texas Tech, all games against legacy Big 12 foes who would certainly like to ruin Texas’ last Big 12 season. But, the road is certainly not insurmountable, and Texas should be favored and win each of those games.
Kansas State brings the second best rush defense (total rush yards allowed) in the conference against a good rushing attack in Texas. Texas brings the best rush defense (total rush yards and yards per carry allowed) in the conference against the second best rushing attack in the conference in Kansas State. The Wildcats are virtually tied with UCF for the best rushing attack in the conference.
So, this is strength on strength. This is going to be who can control the line of scrimmage. Interestingly, Texas gave up 14 rushing yards to Houston whereas Kansas State gave up 113 yards last week to Houston.
If Malik Murphy plays, then Kansas State has a great chance to rattle him the way they got to Texas Tech’s backup quarterbacks. My concern for Texas is Murphy in this game. While he has tremendous upside, this is going to be a different ballgame than BYU. BYU did not pressure Murphy often, but when they did, he clearly made a few bad decisions and plays. Both plays resulted in turnovers.
Give the ball to Brooks often, allow Murphy to throw quick passes to his receivers in space to let them make plays, and take much of the decision making off of Murphy this week, and you have a recipe for success. If Texas beats Kansas State, then I like them to win out. And, we’ll see if they end up playing Oklahoma or Oklahoma State in the conference championship (most likely opponents), but I would favor Texas in both.
The great thing going for Texas right now is that they control their own destiny. Win out and you go. Win out and win the conference championship, and I think you are a lock for the CFP because the PAC 12 will continue to gouge itself. And the SEC competitors have too many losses besides Georgia. A 1-loss Texas team is a lock for the CFP in my opinion.
BYU fans can feel encouraged
Now, on to BYU. I’m sure I lost half of Cougar fans with that statement, but read this out. BYU is improving and that is the main reason fans can feel encouraged. Transitioning to the Big 12 was always going to be a multi-year process, and two thirds of the way through the 2023 season it is no different.
BYU’s run game improvements
BYU had been averaging 79 yards per game on the ground, and if so if you take away the Texas Tech game in which BYU ran for 150 yards then BYU‘s average was 67.5 yards per game coming into the Texas game. Keep in mind that Texas is the best run defense in the conference, and BYU had their third best outing of the season. Texas held Baylor to 60 yards rushing, Rice to 27 yards rushing, and Houston to 14 yards rushing!
They have also progressively been getting better since the Kansas 9 yard debacle. As frustrating as it is for the fans, I step back and see that there is improvement happening as the season progresses.
BYU stayed in the Texas game much longer than the TCU game
BYU went into halftime down 32-8 against TCU, and you had the feeling that BYU was never going to get close. In the Texas game, despite losing by 4 points less, BYU was decidedly much closer in this game than TCU.
At the 13:10 mark left in the 4th quarter, Texas led 21-6. Yes, BYU was struggling offensively, so they had a big hill to climb, albeit without Taysom Hill, but they stopped Texas on a 4th and 1 at the 3 yard line. BYU took that momentum and used 4 minutes to get to the 32 yard line before Kedon just missed Lassiter at the Texas 47 yard line. That pass was intercepted and returned 45 yards to the 8 yard line. In a turn of events where BYU could have scored with a few more minutes, BYU went from a possible score of 21-14 (assuming a successful 2pt conversion), to being down 28-6. A 1 possession game to a 3 possession game.
At that point, the game was out of hand, and the fumble with under 3 minutes to go put the style points on the victory. But, BYU was within striking distance midway through the 4th quarter. They were never that close against TCU in the second half.
The program is going to be better for this game. Going through this experience is going to teach the coaches and players lessons that will change them and give them confidence going into the next game they face that situation.
BYU’s defense has improved since 2022
Additionally, let’s zoom out from the Texas game and look at 2022 compared to 2023. What was the largest complaint that most fans had during the 2022 season? The complaint that was at fever pitch about this time one year ago. It was the defense. Particularly the run defense.
BYU had an inability to get off the field on 3rd downs, and they rarely generated sacks or turnovers. X and fan boards were buzzing with frustration and all sorts of solutions to fix the defense. Fast forward a year and through many changes and the defense is much improved. While it is certainly not where the coaches want it to get to, it is no longer the weakest point on the team. And, that is not because there was no improvement and the offense has become so poor. Rather, the defense has clearly improved.
BYU stopped Texas twice on 4th and short situations a few yards from the goal line. The way the game was going, BYU players easily could have given up and allowed Texas to score, but they stuck with it. That is a sign that these players have bought into this defense, to the coaching, and that the coaching is putting players on the field who have earned their way there and continue to earn their way there. Recruiting stars no longer matter.
(Data come from @cfbfastR — follow them on X)
