Why Clemson could be the most interesting team in 2024

When Nick Saban announced his shocking retirement on January 10th, names began to surface for candidates for the head coach / supreme leader of the Crimson Tide. One name popped up with curious context: “If this was last year, then his name would be on the list.” That name was Dabo Swinney. But, his name was no longer on that list. Why? Simply put, because 2023 proved that Clemson is no longer among college football’s elite Top 5 programs. In fact, they are not even among the Top 10. The following three questions illustrate why Clemson could be the most interesting team in 2024:

1. Is Clemson’s time at the top finished?
2. Did the Transfer Portal and NIL leave Dabo behind?
3. What will Clemson do regarding conference realignment?

We don’t have the answers yet. But, 2024 will bring answers to some of those questions, which is why this year will be fascinating to watch Clemson (on and off the field). 

Question #1 – Is Clemson’s time at the top finished?

When we talk about time at the top of college football, we’re talking about the top echelon of programs. The few, the proud. No, not the marines, but the Top 5 programs in the country.

I am referring to that tier of college football where the Georgias, Alabamas, Ohio States, and now Michigans of the world sit. These four teams have been playing in the playoff and national championship with regularity over the past 5 to 10 years, give or take. 

Clemson was among this tier from about 2015 through 2020. In 2021 and 2022 you could say that they were still there but had some slip ups, like Georgia did this year, that kept them just at the outside of the playoff.

But, then 2023 came and Clemson lost 4 games. For context, Clemson had not lost 4 games in a single season since 2011, which was Dabo’s third season as head coach with the Tigers. That year, the Tigers played in the Orange Bowl and was the beginning of their ascent to the top.

I will briefly establish that Clemson is currently not at the top. That means that   the question of this section, “Is Clemson’s time at the top finished?”, is essentially asking if Clemson can return to the top.

I don’t have that answer, but Clemson’s 2024 season sure does.

Clemson was at the top of college football. In fact, there were two years in which they owned the top. Do you remember when we, the college football fans across the nation, began to ask, “Did Dabo and Clemson just build a program rivaling Alabama? And, can that actually happen outside the SEC?”

A walk back through history

See, let’s go back in time about 8 years ago. Alabama won 3 titles since 2009, and the SEC has won 7 national titles straight, starting with Florida in 2006. There were two temporary blips where the SEC didn’t win (Auburn losing to Florida State in 2013 and not making it in 2014 as Ohio State beat Oregon). Then, in 2015, Alabama beat Clemson in the national title game. The SEC was apparently back to their winning ways, AND Alabama proved that it wasn’t just a special 4-year dynasty (from 2009 to 2012).

No, Alabama and Nick Saban were proving that they were something really special. They were in the middle of creating something truly special that has never been replicated. And, we’re not sure if it will be replicated again.

But, then, in a thriller in Tampa, Florida, Clemson, as the #3 seed, beat the top seeded Alabama 35-31 to win the national title on a last second play, shocking the college football world. Clemson was not only able to compete with the untouchable (they proved that the year prior), but they actually were able to unseat the 800-pound elephant sitting at the throne. 

Clemson’s time at the top

Thus, Clemson’s time at the top was made official. Consider the following AP Poll data:

• From Week 1 of 2015 to the end of the 2020 season, Clemson was ranked inside the top 7 for 86 of 91 weeks
• During the same time period, Clemson was ranked in the top 5 for 82 of 91 weeks. 
• Clemson played in 4 national championships (winning 2) between 2015 and 2019

Clemson was viewed by many fans outside the SEC as a beacon of hope: “Someone can bring down the SEC!” 

And Clemson rivaled Alabama from 2015 through 2020. Then 2021 came along with three losses and no ACC title game appearance. That was a jolt to the college football system because. 

We often don’t recognize when the cracks in program foundations are appearing. The program is flourishing, and then suddenly, they are struggling to stay in the Top 25.

Since the start of 2021, the Tigers have started to drop in the Top 25 rankings:

Contrast this most recent period with the 2015 – 2020 period, when Clemson was ranked for 95% of all weeks and ranked in the Top 5 for 90% of the period.

It is indisputable that Clemson was at the top from 2015 – 2020 and has since fallen out. 2022 showed that they were back on track to climbing back into the top. Yet, 2023 was a relative collapse. And so, now Clemson has 2 seasons in the past 3 in which they look more suspect than formidable. 

How would Clemson’s reemergence at the top (or lack of reemergence) impact the rest of the college football field in 2024?

Clemson’s position at the top, or lack of position at the top, has a meaningful impact on the playoff race. Under the current structure, six conference champions will get an automatic bid with their conference champion (this could change but let’s assume 6 for now). That means that Florida State would have been in this year had the playoff existed. Clemson, however, would not have made it in the playoff this year via an at large bid. 

In 2024, Clemson’s reemergence would threaten a spot from the Big 10 or SEC. With a resurgent Florida State, the ACC would suddenly have two brands with enough program clout and reputation to have a case for an at-large bid. Let’s not kid ourselves – branding will have an impact on who gets the at-large bids, and the SEC has certainly done the best branding. The Big 10 is next, particularly given that they have the best TV deal of any conference.

If both Clemson and Florida State play in the ACC title game as an undefeated, or even 1-loss team, then the loser would have a strong case for an at-large bid. Now, a multitude of SEC and Big Ten teams are going to fight for one less spot. 

The following schools from the Big 10 and SEC were in the final Top 12 of the CFP rankings: Michigan, Washington, Texas, Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, Oregon, Missouri, Penn State, Ole Miss, and Oklahoma. That is 11 teams. 2 will be in via automatic qualifier bids. So, that leaves 9 schools fighting for 6 spots. If Clemson reemerges, then that leaves 9 schools fighting for 5 spots, thus 4 will be on the outside looking in. Either way, schools are going to be left out, but one school could find themselves on the outside looking in. 

Question #2 – Did the Transfer Portal and NIL leave Dabo behind?

Dabo has been criticized by many in college football for being slow to adapt to the Transfer Portal and NIL. If Clemson turns in another 8-4 season in 2024, then it will be hard to say it’s completely due to the lack of Transfer Portal or NIL usage, but you might say that it’s a referendum on coaches in the modern era who do not use the Transfer Portal or leverage some NIL.

Since the 2022 Transfer Portal class, Clemson has had 33 players leave while bringing only 2 players in. Clemson’s 2024 success, or failure, could tell us whether teams can afford to do what Clemson is doing, or if it doesn’t have as big an effect as we think.

Players are transferring for one of two reasons: (1) expectations of a better opportunity, or (2) NIL opportunities. And certainly, both reasons can coincide in a situation. So, NIL in today’s world must be part of every school program.

Now, not every school can run the same type of NIL program. Not every school is going to have the alumni base or the donor and booster pool of a Texas, Alabama, or an Ohio state. But, at a university like Clemson, the Transfer Portal and NIL can and should be utilized.

Defecting athletes from the SEC and Big Ten and Big 12 should be available for Clemson to get. Clemson certainly could be a destination for high end SEC and Big Ten talent that is not getting an opportunity, or for high-performing Big 12, Group of 5, and FCS talent that is looking to make a jump to the top end. 

So if Dabo and Clemson struggle in 2024, it wouldn’t be because NIL and the Transfer Portal can’t work at Clemson. But rather, it would be because it has not been utilized. 

Question #3 – What will Clemson do regarding conference realignment?

Reports have suggested that Clemson was moving in lockstep with Florida State regarding conference realignment during the past summer and fall. There were even reports of seven schools who were trying to get out of the ACC in the summer. Clemson has remained mum publicly whilst Florida State draws all of the attention. 

If Clemson reemerges, how would that affect conference realignment? 

And, what if Clemson continues to flounder and becomes an occasional Top 25 team? How would that impact realignment?

But first, why would Clemson want out of a conference that it has dominated? Two reasons: (1) money and (2) access. Clemson is looking around at the landscape of TV money and sees themselves making half as much money as the programs with which they aspire to compete against. Clemson lived amongst the elite very recently, so naturally, Clemson still feels that they belong amongst the elite. 

The people at Clemson are smart – the university does not want to find itself looking on the outside of the playoff and college football power structure within potentially five years.

So this is where the connection to the program being a Top 5 program again becomes intriguing. If the future of college football, particularly conference realignment, is based on TV matchups, then their status as an elite program becomes critical.

Market sizes become less important because the broadcast partners are receiving a decreasing percentage of their revenue from cable tv distribution fees. The future is actual eyeballs that tuned in to the game (imagine getting paid for performance!?). 

Clemson as a Top 5 team becomes a must-see matchup when they play any other team. However, Clemson as a team that drifts in and out of the Top 25 is not a team that will pull in the eyeballs that it once did. 

Now, would an SEC or Big Ten even want Clemson? Clemson’s viability as a realignment candidate is not based solely on them being in the college football elite. However, if media partners are driving the ship on who’s in and who’s out of conferences, then that Top 5 status is important. 

And, if you doubt if media partners are really driving the conference realignment ship, then think about how it has worked. 

Conference asks TV partners, “What will you pay us if we add X, Y, and Z school?” 

TV partner says, “A quarter of what we’re paying you for your current schools?”

Conference responds, “What if we add schools A, B, and C?”

TV partner says, “Now we’re talking. We’ll pay the same amount as your other schools.”

Conference calls schools A, B, and C and says, “Come now while the money is still fresh!”

The interesting dynamic here is that there are some SEC schools that hesitate to bring Clemson in. Would Alabama, Georgia, Texas, LSU want Clemson as a Top 5 team in the conference? Maybe not. But maybe they want another resume builder and can tout even more they are the best conference. 

If Clemson is a 7-5 team again, then perhaps the cellar dwellers don’t want Clemson in? Who knows. 

At the end of the day, TV money, or perhaps streaming platform money in the future, is going to make a big difference in whether Clemson moves to the SEC, Big 10, or stays put. 

2024 is going to be fascinating for a number of reasons. And Clemson could be the most interesting team in 2024 to watch.

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