The game against TCU this weekend for BYU has the potential to be a monumental turning point in BYU football program history. This is for a few different reasons. First, it would be the first Big 12 win on the road for the Cougars. Second, it would be the first win in the Big 12 against a legacy Big 12 team. Third, it would be a win against a team that went to the national championship last year and who caused the Cougars a fair share of consternation during the long forgotten days of the Mountain West Conference days. TCU was neither mountainous nor in the west, and a much more logical fit in the Big 12, but nonetheless, they grew to rule that MWC roost.
If BYU found a way to go into the bowels of Amon G. Carter Stadium and come away having dehorned the Horned Frogs, having avoided being trampled at the Fort Worth cattle drive,
and come out with a victory, think about the confidence this program will gain. It will get the beating a legacy Big 12 member “monkey” off the back quickly. You could see this program get some confidence as it continues to face one of its most challenging schedules in program history. BYU could be playing two Top 10 schools in the course of 22 days (Texas and Oklahoma ”where the wind comes sweeping down the plains!…”).
As a side note, anytime TCU has an offensive drive that ends in a touchdown, I think they need to seriously consider creating a cattle drive that goes around the outskirts of the field. Many schools shoot a cannon or run a flag around the field. If the Fort Worth cattle drive is next door, relatively speaking, I think we’re missing an awesome opportunity here. In fact, why not put the Horned Frog mascot on top of the cattle as they drive around the stadium.
Possibly a Defining Moment in the Season
Back to business. There are defining moments of a season for a program where the fortunes turn for the better or for the worse. In 2022 for BYU, you could point to that Oregon game when things for the Cougars when the wheels started to slip off the road. Now, that was only three games into the season, and BYU did win the next two games, but the cracks in the armor started to show in a suspect defense. It took seven more games for the Cougars to truly right themselves and get back to playing decent defense.
In 2023, BYU faces seven remaining games on the schedule, and as has been pointed out across many outlets, has one of the toughest remaining schedules in the country. BYU does not have an easy out anywhere on the schedule. The game against Iowa State is going to be a grind it out challenging game because Iowa State again has one of the best defenses in the conference as they did last year. And West Virginia on the road…West Virginia has won 71% of their home games over the past 10 years. It’s not a perfect record by any means, but I don’t like that one for BYU.
So this game becomes crucial not only for bowl eligibility, because finding two more wins on the schedule is not as easy as finding two fast food places that I want to go eat at, but this game could mean a turning of the tide for BYU coming into the Big 12. BYU will eventually arrive in the Big 12 and show that they belong. I expect that to happen in 2024, but it could happen this season and a win against TCU would make you say that BYU was ahead of schedule.
Make no mistake. BYU is and should be an underdog going into this game regardless of TCU‘s QB situation. Going on the road against a very talented team is never easy to win, regardless of whether they roll out the Heisman front runner or the 6th grade recess champion at quarterback.
How can BYU beat TCU?
If I was Kalani Sitake, how would I go about preparing to win this game? If I was Jay Hill, how would I prepare the defense?
First, I would prepare for this game like my life depended on it. That is not saying the coaches aren’t doing that. That simply means I feel urgency for BYU in this situation. I would completely ignore the fact that Chandler Morris is out. The scheme is going to be largely the same and the fact that BYU will have very little film on Josh Hoover will make this even more challenging to prepare for. The players must be even more focused on the scheme to know what looks they could be getting.
Second, I would stop the run. I would focus my defense on stopping TCU and their run game. TCU is averaging 192 rushing yards per game. Nearly 40 attempts per game. If nobody turns the ball over, and TCU rushes for their average, then BYU is going to lose the game.
Third, I would focus on encouraging Kedon Slovis to continue his successful play. He has been a very bright spot this year and has proven that he’s back. Kedon and the Cougs have managed to find a way to pass enough, effectively enough even without a blazing completion percentage (59.4%), to win games.
And fourth, I would focus on winning the turnover margin and taking advantage of opportunities that are gonna come. There is going to be a tipped ball or a fumble or a bad pass. There will be an opportunity that BYU will need to be ready for and confidently take advantage of. Then, on the flipside, the Cougars need to avoid the fumble scoop and score and the pick 6 that Kansas created at the beginning of both halves of play. Yikes. I can still hear that helmet pop on Parker Kingston.
Preparing like life in the Big 12 depended on this win
If I’m BYU, I’m worried sick that TCU is starting a back up quarterback. Anyone who watched the National championship last year would have heard the Max Duggan story. TCU is not going to go on the same run with their new back up quarterback, but the story remains a sobering tale for opponents: underestimate the backup quarterback at your own peril.
It’s human nature to ease up and think that there is no need to prepare as intently when the second strings start. But there is never a guarantee that there will be an enormous gap between first and second string players.
Stopping the TCU run
Do horned frogs really exist? I assume they do if a school has branded themselves around this spiky reptile. All I’m saying is I have never seen one, though admittedly I have never searched for one. And while the jury is out on if the reptiles run or simply hop, the verdict is in on the Horned Frogs’ football team’s running game.
Expect TCU to take some of the pressure off of Josh Hoover by leaning on the run early and often. BYU has shown its inability to stop the run the past two games.
Kedon and the Cougs
Kedon’s numbers are not remarkable on a national level, but when you consider that BYU’s rushing attack has been the worst in the conference and in the bottom three nationally for a few weeks now, you gain appreciation for the 1,200+ yards and 10 TDs he’s thrown.
His receivers have improved each week, and the passing game has been effective largely due to its ability to generate chunk yardage. Aaron Roderick has devised a set of offensive play calls that rely on a variety of actions. Sometimes he sacrifices a down in order to set up a specific play on the next down. What he is doing is working.
Take Advantage of the Opportunities
In the Kansas game, Kansas took advantage of two big opportunities and scored on the play that they created the turnover. That is harder than it appears. Otherwise, all teams would be doing that. BYU is going to get some opportunity presented to them, and they need to take advantage.
In the opening drive against Kansas, Jalon Daniels missed his target on a third down play when Ben Bywater tipped the ball. He had a chance at an interception. It wasn’t a great chance, but it was a chance. That would have made a big difference in the game. The following week, Jakob Robinson had an opportunity when Emory Jones threw the ball right to him, and he capitalized and scored a touchdown, which proved to be hugely influential in that win.
I don’t know when the opportunities are going to appear, but BYU needs to take advantage. This is not limited to turnovers, though that would clearly make a huge difference. Rather, this is connected to any opportunities – a wide open receiver due to a blown coverage, or a muffed punt, or a poor snap by TCU that leads to a 3rd and 25 at a critical moment. BYU needs to seize the day, as the Newsies would say, and take advantage of the opportunity. They always come when we least expect, but when we are prepared, then we are ready for the moment.
I’m anxious to see these old MWC foes meet again when TCU hosts BYU.
